Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- One active quarterback has bested Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead with a season on the line, and NFL execs now see a clear path for that to happen again this year.
- Rival front offices are more bullish on one AFC franchise than they’ve been in years, citing a rebuilt defense and a quarterback who appears fully healthy and on board with the team’s direction.
- The schedule sets up favorably for this team, with a soft opening stretch and a late-season matchup that could decide the conference’s top seed.
Only one active NFL quarterback has gone to Arrowhead with a season on the line and Patrick Mahomes at full strength and bested him. One. And that's Joe Burrow. (For what it's worth, Tom Brady did it, too, but he’s only active in the broadcast booth these days).
Mahomes is entering his 10th season in Kansas City and has been the standard in NFL quarterbacking for the past eight years. But he is coming off season-ending knee surgery. Burrow on the other hand is in full health with arguably the best cast around him he’s ever had before, and has a decidedly favorable schedule.
This just might be the season of Burrow.
Why NFL executives suddenly believe in the Bengals again
Rival NFL front offices are more bullish on the Bengals roster than they’ve been in a while, and Burrow might have the combination of health and talent to finally get off to a fast start. After years of dropping cryptic hints about his football mortality and putting Bengals ownership on notice about their spending and roster decisions, Burrow is more outwardly on board with the state of this franchise than ever.
He’s overdue for some good luck after enduring freakish injuries, and he might just be overdue for his first MVP. I wouldn’t put it past him this season.
“The last time they had a defense, he almost went to the Super Bowl,” noted one general manager, “and the year before, they probably should have won the Super Bowl. There’s no reason for him not to have a huge year.”
Indeed, the Bengals fell three points short at Arrowhead to end their 2022 campaign in the AFC title game, and Burrow executed an epic comeback at Arrowhead the year prior only for the Bengals to blow a lead to the Rams in the Super Bowl. Key pieces of that defense got old, recent drafts failed to deliver, and owner Mike Brown poured money into pass catchers, but compiled a defense so retched that even 35 points from Burrow’s side of the ball wasn’t enough to routinely secure victory.
The Dexter Lawrence trade changed everything for Cincinnati’s defense
No one expects that to be the case in 2026. The trade for Dexter Lawrence, arguably the most menacing interior defensive live presence in the NFL at the height of his powers, anchors a rebuilt line of scrimmage on that side of the ball. Additionally, the draft leaned decidedly defense as well.
“I think this is the most talented roster that we’ve had since I’ve been here,” Burrow said during Organized Team Activity practices last week, which is far removed from years past, when he explained how well he understood the salary cap and the nuances of NFL contracts and what could be spent.
And if you don’t think the Bengals had Burrow in mind when they moved the 10th overall pick for Lawrence, you haven’t been paying attention to the dance that’s been going on between the owner and his quarterback. “It’s tough to find a guy at No. 10 that’s going to have more of an impact than Dexter will,” Burrow said, as strong a stamp of endorsement as Mike Brown could have hoped for.
For the first time in a long time, there are no sideways contract negotiations hanging over the team and no one holding out or holding in or threatening to do either.
The front office operated in a forthright manner like a team with an oft-injured superstar quarterback who turns 30 in December should operate: Knowing the window ain’t forever. Zac Taylor (somehow now the dean of AFC North coaches) is also in a contract year and there aren’t many built in excuses.
The Bengals’ schedule may finally set Burrow up for an MVP run
“I love their offseason,” another GM said. “They might be the team to beat in the AFC.”
Indeed, the AFC North is as wobbly as it’s been in a long time with many new coaches and regimes, while the AFC West is going to be a gauntlet with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos battling it out. Burrow is set to have a run of seven straight 1 p.m. ET games to open the season, where he has done some of his best work. And while a majority of those games are on the road, the Bengals will be the favorites in most.
They come out of their bye and get four straight teams with new coaching staffs, including Baltimore, Tennessee, Atlanta and Pittsburgh, and a fifth that blew up basically the entire staff except for the head coach (Washington). They they face rebuilding New Orleans and Cleveland. Then they host Mahomes at home.
If the Bengals can actually avoid the September doldrums for once, Burrow has always been a strong finisher. He is 24-13 in November, December and January in his regular-season career with 84 touchdowns to 24 interceptions and a 104 rating (best of anyone in the NFL with at least 30 starts in those months since Burrow entered the league in 2020). We know he’s a closer, and, eventually, it would seem they wouldn’t start a season having to chase the rest of the AFC.
Perhaps this is that season. If so, that season might not end until February.
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