Oddsmakers believe the MVP race is just about over, but that doesn't stop fans from becoming Matt Murdock for their guy.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are having all-time seasons. SGA has one of the most hyper-efficient 30+ point-per-game seasons ever, while leading the young Thunder to a 65-plus win pace. OKC is plus-15 with SGA on the floor. He's led his team to this dominant record, with rim protector Chet Holmgren missing 39 straight games in the fall/winter. Shai's impact is massive, but so is Jokic's.
29/13/10 are the absurd numbers that Jokic averages — not over the last five games but for the whole season. Pair that with his 66 true shooting percentage, and we easily witness the most efficient triple-double ever. The Nuggets aren't set to win 60 games like OKC, but when Jokic is on the floor, Denver has one of the best offensive ratings ever. Offensively, there's nothing he can't do.
While SGA isn't Gary Payton, he is a plus defender. On the ball, he's passable but doesn't take strong matchups because his teammates are All-Defense caliber (Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, etc.). Shai is an event creator off the ball and triggers OKC's offense from deflections and Deion Sanders interceptions. He gets on the floor for balls (third in loose balls recovered). Shai's isn't a negative, and Jokic's isn't historically like some tend to believe, but this hasn't been a stellar season on that side of the ball.
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OKC's record and Nikola Jokic's rim defense are split hairs that go to SGA's MVP case
Averaging 30+ points on a 60-win team has always resulted in the MVP award, but we've never seen a specimen like Jokic on offense. Thirty years from now, players will be putting up "Wilt and Jokic" numbers. Those are two of the most statistical box score outliers the sport has seen.
Defensively, Jokic still has active hands (third in total deflections) and stops pick-and-rolls with brainiac kick balls, but the rim defense is lacking.
The center is the most pivotal piece of defense because they are the backline help. Centers must deter and change shots at the rim because offensive players will get to the cup.
It's virtually impossible to keep elite (or even meh) creators from generating space and getting to the rim every possession of the game. This is the most talented era of hoops, and the rules also give offensive players an advantage.
When your center allows opponents to shoot nearly 70 percent at the rim on 422 rim field goals attempted, the team's defense will be more than suspect.
That's what Jokic does and how the Nuggets' team defense looks. Denver is the 23rd defense per Cleaning the Glass (who filters out garbage time). If you are wondering why the 70 percent mark at the rim is detrimental to a team's defense, look no further than Brook Lopez. Lopez allows opponents to shoot 57 percent on 466 rim field goal attempts, per PBP stats. And the Splash Mountain has lost a step.
Baskets will inevitably be given up when you're the backline defender, challenging shot after shot. Ivica Zubac (All-Defense worthy) holds the opposition to 55 percent on 449 rim field goal attempts. He's the general of the 4th ranked Clippers defense. Kris Dunn is there, stifling ball handlers from getting to the rim, and in Jokic's defense, Denver doesn't have an on-ball defender like that.
Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Aaron Gordon are borderline elite defenders. Braun and Watson are strength-based point-of-attack defenders, while Gordon is a brute defender who takes on the LeBrons and Tatums. They aren't Kris Dunn, but they stop basket attacks a good amount. Jokic gets scored on at the rim from being disengaged.
He's a champion and three-time MVP. Jokic will turn it up a notch come postseason time, though he stated, "You are who you are… you cannot switch a flip for the playoffs." He'll be more engaged with the chance for the Larry O on the line.
In terms of the MVP race, both historical offensive seasons from SGA and Jokic will be rewarded with another All-NBA first-team appearance, but SGA is walking away with his first MVP. You must nitpick when a race is this close, factoring in the box score and standings. I won't wipe away the historical precedent of wins, which has always been a massive factor in these races when a team wins 60 games.