One stat that shows Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio might be closer to competing than you think
By Craig Miller
The San Antonio Spurs sit at a pedestrian 6-8 on the young season and are currently 12th in the Western Conference standings. Believe it or not, that .429 winning percentage is a far cry from their 22-60 (.268) finish last year. Thus far, they’ve looked like a much more competent squad, logging a minus-1.0 net rating overall with wins against the likes of the Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings.
Injuries, most notably to Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, have led to some lineup combinations that were not necessarily expected when the season began.
Even though it wasn’t exactly what they planned on coming in, the current starting lineup of Victor Wembanyama, Harrison Barnes, Julian Champagnie, Stephon Castle and Chris Paul, is showing some signs of life and offering a new level of optimism for fans.
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Don’t look now, but perhaps Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs might not be so far from competing.
Devin Vassell started the regular season on the shelf recovering from offseason foot surgery, missing the team’s first nine games. Jeremy Sochan, who was having a hot start to the season individually, also went down with a thumb injury just seven games into the season. Vassell and Sochan were the two players who played the most minutes for this team last season, which meant there was room for new blood.
With Sochan out and Vassell coming off the bench since his return, the team's new five-some that has been starting games has been surprisingly good, logging a plus-58 for the season, which is the best of any starting group in the league thus far.
Most recently, this group netted a plus-12 against the Los Angeles Lakers where they lost by just five points, showing their ability to compete.
The lineup features an intriguing blend of youth and experience, with rookie Stephon Castle flying around like a bullet and getting to the rim at will, while Chris Paul methodically probes the floor to find openings. Julian Champagnie (37.1 percent from three) and Harrison Barnes (38.1 percent from three) space the floor while playing a steady floor game. Then there’s that Wemby guy, who’s dropping 50-point games and racking up 5x5 stat lines like the alien that he is.
Admittedly, this lineup is shooting a blistering 44 percent from 3, which is likely to cool off. Even more telling, opponents are shooting an abysmal 23 percent from 3 against this lineup, which will absolutely increase.
Nevertheless, it is exciting to see how the stabilizing presence of veterans like Barnes and Paul can pair with a generational talent like Wembanyama. The Spurs aren’t operating with sky-high expectations this season, but it is always better for the sport when someone like Wembanyama is playing competitive games. Their season-long net rating as a team of minus-1.0 is not exactly sparking playoff conversations yet, but it is an indication that opponents won’t be able to just roll over the Spurs whenever they’re on the court together.
The one thing that is here to stay is the impact Wembanyama has on the defensive end. The shooting will come and go, but the defense is insane, particularly protecting the rim. He’s leading the league in blocks - which is just going to be a natural state of being for the next decade - and holds opponents to a minus-10.5 percent shooting differential per NBA.com. His minus-12.5 on/off differential on defense also ranks 94th percentile in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Even at almost 40 years old, the Chris Paul effect seems to remain alive. Teams continue to improve when he arrives and this year is no different. This would be the seventh straight time in his career that he has changed teams and immediately improved the product if this keeps up. The Spurs are 22.7 points per 100 possessions better with Paul on the court than off (98th percentile). He’s also logging a cool 8.4 assists per game, which is good for ninth in the league and remains a steady caretaker with a 4.18 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Point God is doing what the Point God does.
Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie are perhaps the biggest surprises. Castle had a polished floor game coming out of UConn but the outside shooting was a huge question mark, resulting in a murky projection for his offensive fit. He struggled on offense to start the season and he certainly still has kinks to work out with the jumper (under 30 percent from three). He has, however, been supremely effective getting to the rim (85th percentile in rim shooting frequency) and drawing fouls (92nd percentile in shooting fouls drawn) while being a total pain in the butt on defense against some of the league's most talented scorers.
Champagnie has been a low-usage, efficient shooter for his entire short career and is benefitting greatly from playing alongside the likes of Wembanyama and Paul, to the tune of almost six catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per game, which is sixth most in the league (min. six games). He does a good job of staying disciplined on defense in avoiding fouls and is actually the only one of the other four starters we're highlighting here who has a positive net rating when on the floor without Wembanyama, showing his value even further.
There's obviously no guarantee this will keep up. As mentioned, the shooting numbers are way out of wack on a small sample and vets like Paul may not even be on the team the whole season. For now, let's just be grateful for the competent supporting cast for Wembanyama that allows him to learn and grow in a functional environment before our eyes. With these teammates enabling him to explore the limits of his otherworldly talent, we might even be able to see him and the upstart Spurs making noise on the national stage in the Play-In Tournament when April comes around.