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Opening Day is supposed to be a time for optimism. Hope springs eternal, as the saying goes, and as the sunshine pokes through and every team wipes the slate clean, every MLB fan base can talk themselves into this year finally being the year.
Of course, as baseball fans, we know better than that. Letting your imagination run wild this time of year is only natural, and we certainly don't want to discourage the romantics out there. But while certain fan bases have ample reason to let dreams of a World Series title dance through their heads, others ... well, others aren't so lucky.
Where does your team fall? We've created the Opening Day optimism matrix to answer that very question.
The Opening Day optimism matrix: How is each MLB fan base feeling?
We've plotted all 30 fan bases in an effort to try and capture each specific mood at the start of the 2025 season. But this isn't as simple as how good (or not so good) your team might be, and we don't want it to be a straight power ranking. The reality of a competitive league is that every team can't be a title contender at the same time, and each fan base has its own goals for the year to come. For some teams, nothing short of a title would be considered a success; for others, just finding a few pieces for the future.
So we've created a grid to reflect that, with one axis running from "rebuilding" to "contending" based on where each team is in its competitive cycle and another running from "pessimistic" to "optimistic" based on how each fan base is feeling about its trajectory. Where does your team and its fans fall? Let's take a look.
Los Angeles Dodgers
I mean, need we say more? The Dodgers are a player development machine, they have more money than most small countries and everybody wants to come win in Southern California.
New York Yankees
This probably would’ve looked a lot different even just a few weeks ago. Despite losing Juan Soto to the rival Mets back in December, Yankees fans had plenty to feel good about, with Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt now on board to try and capture a second straight AL pennant. But then Brian Cashman decided to just not sign a third baseman, Luis Gil went down with a shoulder injury and Gerrit Cole was lost for the year due to Tommy John. There’s still talent here to make a run, but the vibes aren’t great right now.
New York Mets
The vibes are excellent across town, however, as the Mets slot Soto into a lineup that figures to be among the best in baseball this season — and many seasons to come. There are plenty of baseball reasons for Mets fans to feel optimistic; this team got to the doorstep of the World Series in 2024, then added arguably the best pure hitter in baseball and made some shrewd pitching additions. But the real reason this spring feels different is bigger than any box score: For the first time in franchise history, the Mets aren’t playing second fiddle in their own city.
Chicago Cubs
It feels like the Cubs should be more toward the top-right corner of this graphic, and yet … well, Jed Hoyer persists. Even Chicago’s big coup of the offseason, the Kyle Tucker trade, comes with a catch: Tucker is only under team control for one more year, and there’s no evidence to suggest this regime has what it takes to keep him around for the long haul. The Cubs have oodles of young talent and, ostensibly, cash to supplement it. But at this point, Hoyer needs to earn back the benefit of the doubt — especially after his team dropped each of its first two games to the Dodgers in Tokyo.
Boston Red Sox
It still doesn’t feel quite right to put Boston all the way toward the contending side of things; we’ve yet to see what “full throttle” really looks like. But this is the most excitement Red Sox Nation has enjoyed in a little while now, as the trade for Garrett Crochet and the signing of Alex Bregman suggested that Craig Breslow and John Henry are finally ready to start acting like the Red Sox again. Some hurdles still remain — an extension for Crochet, the looming free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – but Boston appears very well-positioned both now and into the future.
Houston Astros
It increasingly feels like someone turned off the lights on the Astros dynasty and just forgot to tell Houston. Tucker is already gone, Framber Valdez figures to follow next winter, and while the team still seems determined to contend, they’re going to be doing so with one of the very worst outfield situations in baseball — one so bad that it’s forced Jose Altuve to try and learn left field on the fly this spring, with predictable results. Of course, the cupboard is far from bare, and this team should again be competitive in a relatively weak division. But the trendlines are concerning.
Atlanta Braves
There’s no way the injury bug can strike that badly again … right? It’s been a frustrating couple of years for Atlanta, but the halo of the 2021 World Series still glows softly in the rearview, and this remains one of the best cores in the game — a core that’s locked up for the foreseeable future. Sure, the last two postseasons didn’t go the way Atlanta wanted, but the overwhelming majority of MLB fan bases would still kill to be in their shoes.
St. Louis Cardinals
For a team that finds itself in the rebuilding quadrant, there sure wasn’t much rebuilding going on this past offseason, as John Mozeliak responded to the Nolan Arenado trade impasse by more or less sitting on his hands. There’s more talent in St. Louis than you might realize based on the overall vibe right now; Masyn Winn, Lars Nootbaar, Ivan Herrera and Brendan Donovan are very fun players, and the book is hardly closed on guys like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II. But it’s hard to see how that gets the Cardinals where they want to go, and things might get worse before they get better as Chaim Bloom cleans house.
Toronto Blue Jays
Well, that wasn’t the offseason Toronto had in mind. Facing a make-or-break winter ahead of contract years for Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Jays whiffed on almost all of their top free-agent targets, then failed to get a long-term extension done with Vladdy before his self-imposed deadline. The result? A roster that will be better than last year’s, but probably not by enough to really move the needle. And zooming out, this all feels awfully precarious as the faces of the franchise ponder moving on.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philly finds itself at a bit of a crossroads, and their outlook is in the eye of the beholder. You could see an aging core that’s starting to spring leaks, a GM that largely stayed quiet this offseason and wonder whether this team will ever get over the hump. Or you could see a 95-win team that added some key bullpen pieces plus an intriguing young arm in Jesus Luzardo, and just needs its big-name bats not to go cold at the worst possible time for the third year in a row. We lean the latter, but big changes could be coming.