The Baltimore Orioles are a mess. At 27-39, they sit in last place in the AL East and hold the third-worst record in the majors. Sure, there's still time to turn their season around to an extent, but FanGraphs gives Baltimore 3.4 percent odds to make the postseason. Despite those slim odds, Mike Elias is threatening to make a bad situation worse for the Orioles based on what Jim Bowden of The Athletic ($) had to say.
"Elias because he seems to be focusing on adding a top-of-the-rotation starter and doesn’t appear to have the mindset to be a seller right now, though, in my opinion, he probably should be. His job could be on the line this trade deadline," Bowden wrote.
This quote from Bowden is eye-popping. He says Elias is hoping to add a top-of-the-rotation starter while not having selling in mind. Bowden does not think this is the right approach, and it's really hard to disagree.
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Orioles have no business being anything but trade deadline sellers
I mean, do I need to repeat those odds again? The Orioles are being given 3.4 percent odds to make it to the postseason. The only teams below them in the American League are the Los Angeles Angels and the Chicago White Sox. Sure, they did just get Jordan Westburg back from the IL, and they've played better of late, but these odds simply cannot be ignored.
Last season, the worst Wild Card team in the American League had an 86-76 record. For the Orioles to get to that mark, they'd have to go 59-37 the rest of the way. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely? Of course not. That's just to get to 86 wins, too. Perhaps the third Wild Card team will win more games than that.
Given these odds, the Orioles should be nothing but sellers at the deadline. Unfortunately, Elias might be getting in the way of what the organization needs.
Mike Elias could try to save his job over doing what the Orioles need
Elias' job security has to be on thin ice right now. The Orioles had lofty expectations entering the year, justified or not, and they're among the worst teams in the majors right now. This season, coming especially after Baltimore failed to record a postseason win in each of the last two years, is not a good look for Elias.
Chances are, Elias knows that he needs to find a way to field a winning team or he's going to lose his job. Because of that, he's willing to do what it takes to improve the team's short-term odds, even if they aren't high at all.
Mike Elias could rob Orioles of opportunity to take advantage of seller's market
With six teams from each league making the postseason, there won't be so many sellers at the trade deadline. Given that, the Orioles have a unique opportunity to sell some exciting players and get a lot back. We saw the Miami Marlins do that in a deal with them last season, netting Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for Trevor Rogers.
Tomoyuki Sugano has been their best pitcher this season, and he's a free agent at the end of the year. He can bring back a nice haul. Cedric Mullins leads the team in home runs and RBI, and he might be one of the best bats available. Trading him could bring back a nice return while also opening some playing time for their many young prospects.
Their slim postseason odds, combined with what they can acquire at the deadline, should make the Orioles obvious sellers.