The NBA Finals are set, and while the Oklahoma City Thunder were the preseason favorite, the midseason favorite, the pre-playoffs favorite and the current favorite, few believed the Indiana Pacers would be the team to come out of the East.
With an unexpected Finals matchup starting this week, here’s a good way to whet your appetite for content with five stats you need to know about Pacers-Thunder.
1. Pacers turnover battle could decide the Finals vs. Thunder
The Thunder make their bread by forcing turnovers. Their halfcourt offense is fine, good even, ranked sixth among playoff teams. But where they really excel is in the margins by creating easy offense off turnovers.
The Pacers, on the other hand, had the third-lowest turnover rate of any team this season. They don’t turn the ball over.
That’s the battle here. The Thunder turn over teams that do turn the ball over and teams that don’t. They just force them no matter what. The Pacers also need to push the pace to get ahead of the defense. If the Thunder can pick off those advance passes, it’s going to leave the Pacers with a step hill to climb.
2. Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Pacers' biggest threat
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, averaged 39 points in the two meetings vs. the Pacers this season, shooting 56 percent from the field and 63 percent from 3.
What’s interesting is that the vast majority of those matchups were against Andrew Nembhard. Aaron Nesmith, whose defensive work was so important in the second and third round vs. premier guards? He only played in one game against Shai, and only guarded him on six possessions via NBA.com’s admittedly wonky tracking data. I’m not saying he’s some sort of secret weapon against the best scoring guard since Jordan, but … it’s interesting.
3. Lineup data shows hidden edge in NBA Finals matchup
The Pacers have the best five-man lineup in the NBA playoffs, outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions so far through the conference playoffs. The Thunder are actually pretty middle-of-the-road in those rankings.
However, when you consider three-man combos with at least 50 minutes played, the Thunder have the second-, third-, fourth-, seventh-, eighth-, and 10th-best lineups.
That gets more interesting when you compare it for the season matchups, where Obi Toppin had the best net rating among Pacers rotation players and Jalen Williams was only a +0.6 in net rating.
The lineup battles should be fascinating.
4. Young Pacers and Thunder rosters set up historic duel
The Thunder are not the youngest team to make the Finals, that’s the 1976-77 Blazers, but they’re up there on the list. The Pacers are also the younger side, with most of their core players under 27.
It’s a new day in the NBA and there’s no hoop country for old men, apparently.
5. Pacers elite shooting faces biggest test yet
The Pacers have the best effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. However, beyond that, Indiana has the second-best effective field goal percentage of any conference champion in NBA history since the introduction of the three-point line, trailing only the 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Thunder have given up the second-lowest effective field goal percentage in the playoffs, despite having the ninth-lowest expected opponent effective field goal percentage. Something has to give between the Thunder’s elite defense and the Pacers’ red-hot shooting.
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NBA news roundup
- Reports surfaced that the Wolves had “significant” interest in Kevin Durant at the deadline. This, of course, has fueled speculation that they might be the best suitor for the future Hall of Famer this summer. League sources have told The Whiteboard that the Suns are actively pursuing a center in many of the trade discussions surrounding Durant.
- Nic Claxton is a name that has been mentioned repeatedly in Lakers rumors over the past week. The switch-all Nets forward would fit perfectly next to Luka Dončić as LA looks to build around their new franchise icon.
- Brian Windhorst of ESPN reported that the Raptors are expected to go “big-game hunting” after acquiring Brandon Ingram at the deadline. There have been increasing rumors of more pressure coming from Raptors ownership to speed up their timeline, especially with former Raptors OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam facing off in the conference finals.
What about Giannis?
Remember when Chris Haynes reported on a meeting between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bucks management weeks ago? And then … nothing got reported about the outcome?
Local reporters continue to posit that a “gap year” is possible with Antetokounmpo staying. One Western Conference executive posited this week that Milwaukee wouldn’t trade Giannis unless he directly demanded it, and that he wouldn’t do that out of concern for the backlash.
Meanwhile, every other team is waiting to hear what Giannis decides before continuing their offseason plans. There have been rumblings of a meeting with Giannis and ownership in recent days. Don’t be surprised if nothing is announced until after the Finals as the league prefers teams not to disrupt the actual, you know, basketball games with offseason drama.