Penguins have an out with Erik Karlsson, but power still in defenseman's hands

The 2024-25 season has not gone as planned for the Pittsburgh Penguins. At 6-9-3, they enter Friday's action sitting in second-to-last place in the Metropolitan Division despite playing in more games than all but one of the eight teams. The only team behind them in the division, the Columbus Blue Jackets, has taken the ice three fewer times than Pittsburgh.

This brutal start has GM Kyle Dubas already thinking about the future. Lars Eller was traded to the Washington Capitals in exchange for draft pick compensation, and more moves will almost certainly be coming.

It's easy to expect that players like Marcus Pettersson and Matt Grzelyck - two veterans on expiring contracts - will be on the trade block, but in an ideal world, veterans on large deals who won't be part of this team's future like Erik Karlsson, will be moved too.

One big reason why a Karlsson trade is tough to envision is because of his contract. The 34-year-old is still a solid high-end offensive defenseman, but with a lot of money still on his deal, it's hard to envision a team willing to take that on, at least without Pittsburgh retaining a large portion. Fortunately, Elliotte Friedman of SportsNet showed that a Karlsson deal might not be impossible after all.

"Erik Karlsson? Again, he’s got control. So it’s going to be up to him. Look at his contract structure, though. The salary drops from $11 million now to $9 million (2025-26), then $7.5 million (2026-27), and San Jose has a bit of retention. A big chunk of next year’s money is a $5-million signing bonus. He was traded from the Sharks to Pittsburgh on Aug. 6, 2023, so, if a similar blueprint is followed, that’s even less of a financial commitment for an acquiring team. "

While he's still making a sizable chunk of change, the structure of Karlsson's contract makes it easier to move. The money is descending, meaning he'll earn less as he ages. Even if he isn't able to be moved at this year's trade deadline, he could be dealt over the offseason when his cap hit for next season is smaller than it is right now.

The Penguins have an out, but Friedman also notes another potential issue with a Karlsson trade in that blurb.

Penguins have a way to trade Erik Karlsson, but power is still in his hands

Friedman notes that Karlsson is in control and that a trade is up to him. The reason for that is he has a full no-movement clause in his contract. Karlsson can still get traded, but he has to approve any deal.

Now, this isn't the end of the world. We saw Karlsson waive his no-movement clause to get traded to Pittsburgh ahead of the 2022-23 season, and if Pittsburgh opts to enter a rebuild, there's a very decent chance that Karlsson would be willing to waive it again if he got sent to a contender. Still, the fact that the no-movement clause is there limits what they can do. Karlsson might decide that he loves Pittsburgh so much to the point where missing the playoffs doesn't bother him enough to want out. The power is fully in Karlsson's hands.

If Karlsson was going to get traded, that'd be a major move. Just two seasons ago he was the Norris Trophy winner, winning the award given to the best all-around defenseman. He was on a subpar San Jose Sharks team, but still managed to rack up 101 points. For a defenseman, that is absurd.

His numbers haven't quite been up to par in Pittsburgh, but perhaps with a change of scenery, we can see him play like the superstar he was just a couple of seasons ago. He can help teams tremendously in need of more offensive production from the blue line.

Karlsson is still a productive player, and his contract will get easier to move, but again, it's all up to him as to whether he can get traded. The Penguins would surely love to get his money off the books and open some time for younger players, but that's far from a guarantee.