PGA Championship cut line projection 2026: Bryson, Rory fighting to see the weekend at Aronimink

The top 70 players and ties on the leaderboard will make the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship. However, the stiff, difficult conditions at Aronimink Golf Club this week are going to both make sure that players earn their way into the weekend to get under even a high cut line. More importantly, the tough conditions and golf course could lead to some big names missing the cut this week at the PGA Championship.

As of right now, the PGA Championship cut line projections have the line to be one of the highest in recent memory. And considering that only one player has even touched 5-under par through two rounds this week (and didn't stay there), that stands to reason. It could also set up a thrilling weekend at Aronimink to determine the next major champion, but you have to make the cut first for that to be the case.

Projected PGA Championship cut line at Aronimink

The projected cut line for the 2026 PGA Championship is at +4 this week with Aronimink playing so difficult. According to the Data Golf models during the second round with the majority of the afternoon wave taking the course, there is a 72.5% chance that the cut line will be 4-over par when we get to the end of the initial 36 holes of the tournament. How many players that will push through to the weekend remains to be seen.

However, it's worth noting that the models and conditions have played some games with the cut line projections. At one point, it looked as if the number could be as low as +2. But with Friday continuing to play just as difficult — if not more so — than it did on Thursday, that kept pushing it lower. While there is greater than a 25% chance that we see the cut line sneak in at +3, which would put even more big names in danger of missing the cut, +4 is still by far the safest prediction right now.

Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy lead stars in danger of missing the cut

Bryson DeChambeau's struggle from Augusta seemingly carried onto the next stage of major championship golf at Aronimink. There really wasn't a facet of his game that looked in a good place, which led to him shooting 6-over for the round, starting out Friday's round already two strokes off of the projected cut line. And let's not forget Rory McIlroy either, whose 4-over round that he succinctly described as "s**t" to the media on Thursday, started his second round right on the projected cut line.

Those two big stars and favorites coming into the week aren't alone, though. Guys like Tommy Fleetwood, Gary Woodland, Viktor Hovland, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley and several others also found themselves in a tough spot entering the final round and trying to stay alive for 36 more holes.

And while it's golf, meaning that anything can happen on a given week at the highest levels of the sport, the truth of the matter is that it's a bit unfortunate that some of these big names weren't able to rise to the top amid the thorough test that Aronimink was providing.

Cut lines at the last five PGA Championship events

For some context of how difficult things were playing to start the 2026 PGA Championship, we're coming off of two straight years in which the cut line at this championship was around even par — including being under par at Valhalla two years ago.

But when you look at the more proper tests that the PGA of America has put in front of these players with the likes of Oak Hill, Southern Hills and Kiawah, Aronimink is right in line with those with the projected cut line. It should be something relatively in that same range, and those all produced phenomenal results and should raise the excitement levels further for Aronimink.

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