Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The PGA Championship at Aronimink is known for producing unexpected winners and this year's field has several intriguing longshots.
- Ball-striking and short game skills will be crucial this week, opening the door for players flying under the radar.
- One sleeper comes in at 725/1 odds and could outperform expectations based on recent overseas performance and strong tee-to-green numbers.
The PGA Championship holds a unique place in golf among the major championships. While it might be considered the fourth-most prestigious, it can still be entertaining. And one of the big reasons for that has been the history of longshots and sleepers being victorious every few years. While 13 of the last 17 winners of the Wanamaker Trophy have been at 40/1 odds or better, the other four have been dark horse winners at 125/1 or higher. So who are the right dark horse picks for Aronimink in the 2026 PGA Championship? That's where the fun begins.
Aronimink is going to test players throughout the entire bag. Ball-striking will be key, but so too will the short game. That opens up the board quite a bit when looking for PGA Championship sleepers, but you have to find the ones displaying enough of the signs. And with one longshot at 725/1, we have some fascinating dark horses worth considering this week as the second major of the year tees off.
5. Mikael Lindberg +72500 (DraftKings)
If this is your first time hearing of Mikael Lindberg, you're probably not alone. At 725/1, he's way down the odds board this week and only qualified as one of the top three finishers of the DP World Tour's Asian Swing rankings. But there's a lot to like because of that, which suggests that he could far outperform his level of notoriety heading into Aronimink.
The data from overseas is a bit limited, but Lindberg's ball-striking numbers stand out, gaining 2.141 strokes tee-to-green, which has led to him finding a ton of success recently with a third-place showing at the China Open and then a win in the Turkish Open.
Look, I'm not saying that Lindberg deserves to be a favorite, but he's clearly playing some terrific golf right now with a ton of talent tee-to-green. There's upside there, even if you don't feel compelled to take the 725/1 shot outright.
Recommended play for Mikael Lindberg: Top 40 incl. ties +300 (BetMGM)
4. Gary Woodland +14000 (Bet365)
Since his triumphant victory at the Houston Open, the finishes have been decent but not overwhelmingly so for Gary Woodland. He's not finished outside the Top 40 in four starts, but also has just one Top 10 finish over that span as well. What still stands out, though, is his ability to pop with his ball striking, notably gaining 6.212 strokes tee-to-green last week at Quail Hollow.
Woodland's putter can be his nemesis, and that's probably why he's so low down the odds board. At the same time, though, he's a major championship winner who has largely been rounding back into form this year, and it's a golf course that he may well be able to ball-strike to death, especially if it's a battle to simply not put big numbers on the scorecard.
There's a legitimate avenue tee-to-green this week for Woodland to contend if his short game is even passable. However, I do think his ball-striking as a whole could propel him to a quality finish regardless.
Recommended play for Gary Woodland: Top 20 incl. ties +300 (BetMGM)
3. Patrick Reed +8200 (DraftKings)
We haven't seen Patrick Reed in a competitive tournament since the Masters, which saw him tied for second after 36 holes and then fade a bit on the weekend. But there have been enough signs from Augusta and overall this season for the former major champion to be getting a look to make some noise at the 2026 PGA Championship.
In his 12 most recent measured rounds at Augusta and on the DP World Tour, Reed actually ranks fifth in the PGA Championship field in SG: Tee-to-Green, and that includes high-end approach play and even some quality off the tee play as well in addition to his famed short game. To that last point, though, that should play well at the Donald Ross-designed Aronimink, especially if Reed can find the magic with the flat stick.
Put simply, there's no reason that Reed should be north of 80/1 this week. The signs are too good and his pedigree is too substantial for that to be the case.
Recommended play for Patrick Reed: Small outright and Top 10 incl. ties +500 (BetMGM)
2. Alex Fitzpatrick +15500 (DraftKings)
Just because Alex Fitzpatrick didn't end up pulling through as the winner last week at Truist after holding onto the 54-hole lead doesn't mean that he's still not playing phenomenal golf. He's still gone win, win, T9, solo fourth in his last four starts between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour now. And he's done it on the back of his ball-striking, gaining at least 7.79 strokes tee-to-green in his last two starts at Doral and Quail Hollow.
Admittedly, Fitzpatrick was a better fit for both of those golf courses than at Aronimink, especially with some of the squirrely short-game shots we've seen him hit around the greens and on them in recent weeks. At the same time, however, ball striking is always going to play and give guys a chance, and Fitzpatrick continues to shine in that department.
I already have some backing for Matt Fitzpatrick this week, so let's make this a whole brotherly affair and show Alex some love as he simply might be hot at the right time to reel off a nice finish this week in only the second major championship start of his career.
Recommended play for Alex Fitzpatrick: Top 20 incl. ties +350 (BetMGM)
1. Rickie Fowler +6800 (DraftKings)
Overall, you might look at Rickie Fowler's statistical profile in terms of strokes gained and think it's relatively pedestrian. After all, he's just 45th in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds in this field. However, when you start to dig a bit deeper and hone in a bit more on what he's doing immediately leading into the PGA Championship, you can see why he's worth backing at Aronimink.
Not only has Fowler been the 21st-best putter in the field on bentgrass and terrific in terms of scrambling bogey avoidance, but he also comes in after reeling off three consecutive Top 10s, all of which came in signature events. Over those tournaments, he also gained with the putter in each of them while gaining 3.48 or more strokes tee-to-green.
When you also consider that Fowler finished T8 at Aronimink in the 2018 BMW Championship, the form and fit are starting to match up, and I think he has a truly strong chance of contending this week as he still searches for his first major championship victory.
Recommended play for Rickie Fowler: Sprinkle outright and Top 5 incl. ties +800 (BetMGM)
Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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