The Philadelphia Phillies are 25-18 with palpable momentum in the NL East. Only 2.5 games behind the first-place Mets, it feels like Philly has the firepower to eventually challenge for the division crown — and perhaps even the National League pennant. We know this team is made for the postseason.
If there is one superpower for this Phillies roster, it's the rotation. Zack Wheeler gets the acclaim, but Jesús Luzardo has performed like an All-Star in his first season with the Phils. Cristopher Sánchez keeps on keeping on. Ranger Suárez, in just his second start since returning from injury, shoved seven scoreless innings against a good Guardians team.
Philadelphia's depth of talent and experience on the rotational front is unmatched in the National League. And yet, there has been one weak point — and it just so happens to be their most expensive ace. It's time to have an honest conversation about Aaron Nola.
In just the second season of his seven-year, $172 million contract, Nola has delivered a 6.16 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through nine starts, with 52 strikeouts in 49.2 innings. In Wednesday's 14-7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, Nola coughed up 12 hits, a walk and nine earned runs in 3.2 innings. It was a new low, and a real moment of panic in the fanbase.
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Phillies need more out of Aaron Nola on his $172 million contract
The metrics paint a slightly rosier portrait — Nola's expected ERA sits at 4.96, which suggests a bit of bad luck to start the season — but it has been rough nonetheless. Nola's velocity is down, his command is shaky at best, and his hard contract percentage (43.6) is a sharp uptick compared to last season's number.
Nola can still get hitters to chase outside the zone, but he's struggling to work in the zone. What would once be soft dribblers or painted-corner whiffs are turning into well-hit baseballs. It's only mid-May, so there's time for Nola to rebound, but the trends are concerning for a 31-year-old pitcher upon whom this front office and coaching staff rely greatly.
Again, Nola still has five years left on his contract after this season. Philadelphia paid him handsomely to stave off a committed free agency pursuit from their division rivals in Atlanta. That was the right decision in the moment, but if Nola begins to decline this sharply, this early in the lifespan of his contract, it could go down as one of the worst investments in MLB.
Comparing Aaron Nola's contract to others in his salary range
Nola's $172 million contract is the seventh-highest in total value among pitchers. It's the fourth-highest in the National League, behind two Dodgers aces and Arizona's Corbin Burnes.
Rank | Name | Team | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers | $325M |
2 | Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees | $324M |
3 | Max Fried | New York Yankees | $218M |
4 | Corbin Burnes | Arizona Diamondbacks | $210M |
5 | Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers | $185M |
6 | Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers | $182M |
7 | Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies | $172M |
This list illustrates the risk of investing heavily in pitchers on the wrong side of 30. Nola has easily been the worst performer of this bunch in 2025, but there are longstanding injury concerns with Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom. Snell has been on the IL for a while in L.A. Meanwhile, Cole — once the poster child of durability in New York — is now on the shelf after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
It takes a special pitcher — and, ideally, a relatively young pitcher — to deliver on this sort of value. Right behind Nola on the list is Garrett Crochet's extension with the Boston Red Sox, which was $170 million over six years. He is 25 years old, at the very beginning of his prime. That was a savvy investment. The Phillies paying max value to extend Nola through the end of his prime (and probably a good chunk of his late-career slide) was a bit riskier.
Dave Dombrowski's willingness to spend on top talent and extend his best players is a feature, not a bug, but it does leave the Phillies vulnerable to the occasional bad investment. It's too early to close the book on Nola's prime, but things are dicier than they've ever been.