10 NBA small sample size overreactions to lose your mind over
The NBA season is just one game old, and already fans are already freaking out. Here are 10 super small sample-size overreactions already taking hold.
With every team in the NBA, besides the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, sitting at one game played, we have a small window to delve into the smallest of NBA sample sizes. One game from an 82-game season is about as small a sample as you can get, but the information from one game still goes into a larger sample.
So instead of being scientific and waiting for all the data to be collected, or even a reasonable amount, let’s overreact to 16 NBA games or 1.3 percent of the 2023-24 season sample and make some wild takes.
10. Cam Thomas, human microwave, wins Sixth Man of the Year
In the Brooklyn Nets opening night contest against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Cam Thomas erupted for 36 points in 25 minutes off the bench. If the Sixth Man of the Year award was given after one game, he’d win it and nab some down-ballot MVP votes in the process.
Thomas has always been a bucket, but the rest of his game has been so lacking that he could never eclipse the 20-minute-per-game marker. That changes this season. Thomas isn’t suddenly a passing savant or a defensive plus, but his scoring is desperately needed on a Nets team with a ton of defensive options but few shot-creators.
The best predictor of Sixth Man of the Year is points per game off the bench, and Thomas has never seen a shot he doesn’t like. If he can consistently hit 25-plus minutes a night, he’ll rack up enough shots and points to claim the award. It won’t always be efficient or helpful to winning, but he’ll have enough volume and eruptions to claim the award.