3 franchise-altering trades Blue Jays should absolutely not let Ross Atkins make

Has there been a more disappointing team in the 2024 MLB season than the Toronto Blue Jays? They lost again on Saturday, dropping them to 44-54 on the season. They're 15.5 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles in the AL East and are now 10.0 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the AL.

FanGraphs gave them a 1.2 percent chance to make the postseason entering Saturday's action, and those odds will only worsen after Saturday's loss.

Toronto was expected by many to at the very least compete for a postseason spot, but they've been in last place in the AL East for much of the year. Chances are, barring some ridiculous and immediate turnaround, the Jays will be sellers at this year's trade deadline and will have some major decisions to make in the offseason.

Firing Ross Atkins, a general manager who has not won a postseason game since 2016, feels like a given. Knowing that his future is in serious doubt, the Jays should not allow him to make these franchise-altering trades when the deadline rolls around.

3) The Blue Jays should not let Ross Atkins sell low on Kevin Gausman

The Blue Jays are where they are mainly because of their underperforming lineup and bullpen, but their rotation has quietly failed to come close to expectations as well. Jays starting pitchers ranked fifth in innings pitched and third in ERA last season. They entered Saturday's action ranked 12th in innings pitched and 16th in ERA from their starters. That's major regression.

Virtually everyone outside of Yariel Rodriguez has disappointed to an extent this season, and Rodriguez has made just eight starts. Kevin Gausman might be the biggest culprit in that area, posting a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts and 104 innings of work this season.

With the Jays looking like sellers, trading a 33-year-old Gausman might make sense. If a team wants to treat him like the All-Star he had been in his first two seasons in Toronto then sure, Ross Atkins should go through with it. However, he should not trade Gausman just to trade him. If they were to trade him right now, they'd be selling incredibly low.

The right-hander has two more years on his contract at a $23 million AAV. Obviously he's not worth close to that if he's going to struggle like he has this season, but should the Jays really be giving up on Gausman entirely? What if he pitches well in the first half of next season? Sure, he'll be down to 1.5 years of control instead of 2.5, but 1.5 years of All-Star Gausman is obviously worth much more than 2.5 years of Gausman at his worst.

If the Jays can't trade Gausman at fair value, it's best to hold on. Do not trade him just to get the money off the books or just to get what you can when Gausman has time to re-establish his value.

2) The Blue Jays should not let Ross Atkins trade Bo Bichette without an incredible return

Gausman is one of many Jays who have disappointed this season, but nobody has been more disappointing than Bo Bichette who is having the worst season of his career by far.

The 26-year-old is slashing .223/.276/.321 with four home runs and 30 RBI. Coupling underwhelming offensive numbers with subpar defense at shortstop, and you get yourself a -0.3 bWAR player. That's what Bichette has been through 79 games this season.

Prior to this season, Bichette had established himself as one of the premier shortstops in the game. He made two All-Star teams in his first three seasons and received down-ballot MVP votes in the other. This season's struggles have come out of nowhere, and his struggles to stay on the field make it even worse.

Bichette just landed on the IL with a hamstring injury. He'll be out past the trade deadline. That already limits his value. Adding his poor play onto that, and you have a player whose value is so low to the point where the Jays just should not trade him at all.

The Jays might be eager to trade Bichette because he has 1.5 years of club control, but doing so now in the midst of his lost season would be a mistake without a star-level return. I'm talking at least one blue-chip prospect for Jays fans to get excited about.

If Atkins can get a strong return for the struggling Bichette then yes, he's fine to pull the trigger and enter a full-on rebuild. If Atkins cannot do that, the Jays would be better off banking on a bounceback from their shortstop in 2025. Yes, he'd be a rental by next season's deadline, but half a year of Bichette in All-Star form would undoubtedly be worth more than he is right now, injured and underperforming. Extending Bichette remains an option too, if the Jays choose to hold onto him.

1) The Blue Jays should not let Ross Atkins trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. without an even better return

The biggest fish Toronto has to offer is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who, unlike Bichette and Gausman, has actually played well for the Jays. He got off to a slow start but entered Saturday's game with a .818 OPS and that only improved after Guerrero launched his 16th home run of the year.

He hasn't quite been able to replicate his breakout season back in 2021 when he was the AL MVP runner-up, but he's a bonafide star, and is a player Toronto should be looking to build around.

With that being said, Guerrero, like Bichette, has 1.5 years of club control and no hint of an upcoming extension. Because of that, Atkins and the Jays would be foolish to not listen to trade talks, but if it'd require a lot to land Gausman or Bichette, it'd take an absolute haul to trade Guerrero considering how well he has played and because he is the face of this franchise.

It should take multiple high-end prospects to even get Atkins to consider trading Guerrero, especially considering the fact that he does not have to trade him. Trading expiring contracts is a must to get some value back, but when it comes to Guerrero, Atkins should not be allowed to trade him unless he is absolutely blown away.