3 must-win games on the first half of the Broncos schedule

For a league that has seen Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes lift the Lombardi Trophy in six of the past 10 years, it's remarkable how each new NFL season brings such unbridled hope to nearly all teams. The Denver Broncos and their fans, despite having seen first-hand just how futile resistance against Mahomes and the Chiefs is, nonetheless are entering this season with more optimism than they've had in a long while.

The Broncos haven't made the playoffs since they won the Super Bowl in 2016. Like John Elway before him, Peyton Manning went out on top by retiring after that Super Bowl win, and Denver has spent the past eight years searching, if not for a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, then at least for someone competent enough to pilot the team back to respectability.

Broncos fans are hoping that their wait is finally over, as first-round pick Bo Nix was recently named the team's starter to begin the season. Nix isn't the only rookie that will have the weight of his respective franchise on his shoulders, but unlike top picks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, Nix wasn't nearly universally lauded as a smart pick when Roger Goodell called out his name in April.

Broncos coach Sean Payton has been unflinching in the face of public scrutiny over his selection of Nix, stating over and over again that the former Auburn and Oregon QB was his guy all along. Certainly nothing Payton has done or said since Nix got to camp has suggested otherwise, and after a strong preseason in which Nix drastically outshone fellow QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, it's beginning to look like Payton, who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks after working with Drew Brees for well over a decade in New Orleans, may have been on to something.

Broncos fans have had their defenses weakened after years of watching the likes of Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Drew Lock and the artist formerly known as Russell Wilson taking snaps under center, so it's understandable that they've all come down with an acute case of Nix Fever. Whether that continues, though, will be determined by how strongly Nix and the Broncos start the regular season.

Putting up gaudy numbers in the preseason is nice, but it won't get you far if you can't do it when the games actually matter. The Broncos need to start hot, which means they need to take care of business against teams that they should beat. Let's look at three such games from the first-half schedule, and why Denver should come away victorious.

Home versus the Steelers, Week 2

The Broncos open the season at Seattle, a tough road environment for anyone, let alone a rookie quarterback. Losing that game, assuming at least that it isn't a total disaster, wouldn't make many fans jump off the bandwagon, but going 0-2 with a home loss to the Steelers might.

This game will mark the return of Russell Wilson, though the question of whether he or fellow Steel City newcomer Justin Fields will be the starter at that point is anyone's guess. If it is Wilson, it will give even more juice to a matchup that has had its share of AFC classics over the years. This will be the first chance for the Mile High crowd to loudly voice their displeasure over the failed trade that brought Wilson to Denver, at least in a way that benefits the home team.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a season below .500, which means that if the Broncos wish to challenge for a playoff spot, they'll very likely be competing with Pittsburgh for a Wild Card. A head-to-head win with a fellow AFC playoff contender is the most important kind of win, but unlike future matchups with the Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals, the Broncos won't be big underdogs in this one.

Ask most Broncos fans for one game they'd give anything to win this year, and most wouldn't say either of the matchups with the two-time defending champion Chiefs. They'd say this one. Sticking it to Wilson with his rookie successor in front of more than 70,000 orange-clad believers would be the biggest indication yet that this franchise is heading in the right direction.

Home versus the Raiders, Week 5

As bullish as Broncos fans are on this team, outside of the reincarnation of Barrel Man himself there are probably few that believe that Sean Payton's club can realistically challenge the Chiefs for the AFC West crown this year. We are still in the early stages of this rebuild, after all, but that doesn't mean that Broncos fans should set the bar too low.

Beating the Raiders is something that's not only achievable, it's imperative. Unlike the Broncos, Vegas missed out on finding its future franchise quarterback in the draft, which has led head coach Antonio Pierce to place his faith in journeyman Gardner Minshew. Minshew's not an All-Pro by any means, but he nearly led the Colts to the playoffs last year, so he's no slouch. Still, Denver needs to hold serve at home, especially in a division matchup.

The Raiders' best position group is the defensive line. Maxx Crosby is a terror coming around the edge, and he'll be joined this year by free agent signee Christian Wilkins. Most teams will have few answers for that pairing, but the Broncos' emphasis on the offensive line should pay off. Four of the five highest-paid players on the roster are offensive linemen, so between Mike McGlinchey, Quinn Meinerz, Garrett Bolles and Ben Powers, the Broncos should be able to clear holes for Javonte Williams and keep Nix upright.

Patrick Surtain II did a phenomenal job in neutralizing Davante Adams in their two matchups last year, and with Adams another year further from his prime, that clash should again tilt the Broncos' way. The unproven Zamir White is now in line to lead the backfield in carries after Josh Jacobs went to the Packers, so the Broncos should be able to make the Raiders one-dimensional. With Surtain and new free safety Brandon Jones manning the secondary, that should be enough to hold the Raiders down.

Home versus the Panthers, Week 8

There's no doubt that it would be more meaningful for the Broncos to beat the Chargers at home in Week 6 than it would be to beat the Panthers in Week 8, as L.A. is a division opponent and this is the first meeting between the longtime rivals since Jim Harbaugh took over. Would a loss to Justin Herbert and company hurt? Sure, but failing to defend your home turf from the lowly Panthers would be much worse from a morale standpoint.

Carolina has a new head coach of their own in Dave Canales, the former offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Canales was brought in to get the most out of Bryce Young after a rookie season that could charitably be described as "shaky." Young and his supporting cast were so rough that it resulted in the Panthers owning the league's worst record. The silver lining to such ineptitude as that usually a team then gets the first overall pick in the draft, except in this case the Panthers had already given that away to the Bears in order to draft Young.

Canales has to be better than his predecessor Frank Reich, who went 1-10 before being unceremoniously fired by embattled Panthers owner David Tepper, but it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Panthers are better than a mediocre team.

Carolina went 0-9 on the road last year and don't have many attainable goals beyond not finishing with the league's worst record again. Losing to a team like that at home before having to travel to Baltimore and Kansas City the next two weeks wouldn't only be demoralizing, it could send the season into a death spiral that there's no pulling out of. This is the very definition of must-win.