4 Reds players who won't be on the roster by June and who should replace them
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The 2024 Cincinnati Reds have seen their season turn from bad to worse. Before the year began, top prospect Noelvi Marte was tagged with a half season suspension due to a positive PED test. Young star Matt McLain was sidelined with shoulder surgery that may keep him out for the length of the season.
They've faced more injuries to their young core, but the team and fan base remained optimistic. Unfortunately, through 43 games, Cincinnati sits in last place in the NL Central at 18-25. They've lost 12 of their last 14.
Obviously, something has to change in Cincinnati. Many speculate it could be the Reds skipper David Bell that gets the boot, but it's more likely that these five players find themselves on the chopping block before Bell does.
LHP Justin Wilson will be replaced by Nick Lodolo when he's healthy
Part of the struggle in Cincinnati has been the lack of top end bullpen talent. Cincinnati could look to bring up some of their top prospects and they may also look to the trade market to make a move for an arm like Mason Miller.
But the fact of the matter is David Bell needs better options in the bullpen if this team is going to reach the goals they set in Spring Training.
Justin Wilson will be the first Red to go. Nick Lodolo was recently placed on the injured list with a groin injury, but it's being speculated that he won't miss much time at all.
When Lodolo is set to return, Cincinnati is going to have to part ways with southpaw Justin Wilson and they won't really miss his services. Sam Moll has been a much better left-handed option for Cincinnati to this point. Moll was sent down to Triple-A recently because he's the only reliever with options left. Moll has since rejoined the ball club and he will need to stay in Cincinnati to help right the ship.
Wilson, 36, holds an ERA of 6.10 and a WHIP over 1.30 so far in 2024. Moll, on the other hand, has thrown 22 consecutive scoreless innings dating back to 2023. When Lodolo is healthy, Cincinnati will need a roster spot for him. It will come down to one of the lefties in the bullpen and the most likely option is Cincinnati parting ways with Justin Wilson for good.
OF Conner Capel will be replaced by TJ Friedl upon his return from the IL
It's not a matter of if this move is made, but rather when.
When TJ Friedl returns from a left thumb fracture, likely in about a month, the Reds will look to their outfield room to make a roster spot for him. With Friedl likely being the first position player to return from the injured list for Cincinnati, they will likely demote the low hanging fruit, Conner Capel, when Friedl is able to make it back to Cincinnati.
Capel will likely be demoted before his fellow outfielder Jacob Hurtubise because Capel lacks the specialty skill that Hurtubise brings to the table with his speed and base stealing ability.
Cincinnati desperately misses TJ Friedl. Without the lefty, David Bell is left without a reliable leadoff hitter. Cincinnati has also been forced to use Will Benson against left handed pitching, a spot in which he has struggled for the length of his career.
The return of Friedl gives Bell a reliable, everyday option in the lineup that creates a spark at the top of the lineup and in center field. While Capel isn't a bad baseball player, he isn't the same level as Friedl and Cincinnati fans are counting down the days to Friedl's return.
Unfortunately, that would spell the end of Conner Capel's first stint with the 2024 Cincinnati Reds.
OF Jacob Hurtubise will be replaced by INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand when he's healthy
One of the more concerning pieces of the 2024 Cincinnati Reds team has been the struggles of slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Encarnacion-Strand got off to a rough start and many hoped his walk off home run early in the year would kick start him towards the 2023 version of himself.
Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case as he continued to struggle until he landed on the injured list with a broken bone in his wrist. When the young corner infielder is ready to return, the Reds will likely have to demote one of their top 30 prospects, outfielder Jacob Hurtubise.
As of now, Cincinnati is carrying six outfielders with four (Fraley, Benson, Hurtubise and Capel) being left-handed swingers. Typically, a team can get away with carrying five outfielders, which is likely what Cincinnati will do when Encarnacion-Strand makes his return, where they would demote Hurtubise in the move.
This decision will come down to whether or not Cincinnati will want to carry Encarnacion-Strand on the roster with Mike Ford. The obvious answer would be no, but Ford provides a much better bat than Hurtubise does.
When Encarnacion-Strand is ready to make his return, the decision between keeping Ford and keeping Hurtubise will come down to who's hitting better at the time. It's much more likely that Ford will be hitting better and that Cincinnati trusts him more. They haven't been shy to place Ford in the top five hitters in the lineup during his tenure in Cincinnati.
RHP Lucas Sims will be replaced by RHP prospect Zach Maxwell
This idea may not be a popular one among Cincinnati fans. Lucas Sims has been a staple in the Reds bullpen for the last six seasons. But the right hander has struggled to begin 2024 and the Reds don't really have time to let him try to figure it out on a Major League mound.
In just over 10 innings, Sims holds a 5.84 ERA and a FIP over 7.00, which indicates that his ERA should be even higher than it already is. He's walking over six hitters per nine innings and allowing an alarming 2.9 HR/9.
Replacing Sims would come down to a few different options. Cincinnati could look to the trade market to replace a high velocity righty with another high velocity righty like Mason Miller. If they opt to stay in-house for a Sims replacement, they're left with a few options.
They could use Connor Phillips or Lyon Richardson, two starting pitchers that sit high in their prospect rankings, or they could look to reliever Zach Maxwell.
The reason Maxwell intrigues me as this choice so much is how dominant he's been in 2024. The 6'6 righty has a sub-1.0 ERA in over 12 innings, where he's stirking out nearly 18 hitters per nine innings.
He currently resides in Double-A, but Cincinnati needs to change that, and they need to do it quickly. Maxwell has the frame and ability to compete on a big-league mound. It wouldn't hurt anything to fast track this top-30 prospect to the big leagues this month.
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