5 college football coaches on the hot seat this week and what their buyouts are

We are roughly a third of the way through the 2024 college football season, and we have some thoughts. While we are still trying to figure out what teams are good, and what teams are truly bad, we are starting to come to grips that some Power Four programs may need to make a change at the helm of the operation. Yes, a coaching change could be in order for these Power Four teams of note.

Coaching changes are made for a multitude of reasons. Usually, it has everything to do with a head coach failing to live up to lofty, or even reasonable, expectations over a lengthy period of time. Other times not beating a slew of rival teams often enough get a fan base to turn on a coach. Then, there are the delightful boosters of the world, who may want to put their hard-earned dollars at work, aight.

So what I am going to do today is list the five Power Four head coaches I feel are sitting on the hottest seats right now heading into the final week of September. While not all of these coaches are going to be out of a job at the end of the season, they have been put on notice. Simply put, they have done more than enough of late to earn this not-so-great distinction heading into Week 5 of the season.

Let's start with a head coach who is fresh off his team's first win of the season and in conference play!

5. Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell

This has been a first month from hell for Mike Norvell and the Florida State Seminoles. After dropping their three games of the season to Georgia Tech and Boston College in ACC play, as well as to Norvell's former team Memphis in the non-conference, the Seminoles were desperate for a win last weekend. While they did prove victorious over Cal last Saturday, Norvell is not yet off the hot seat.

To move on from Norvell would cost Florida State some $65 million. This is a program that had been in somewhat of financial disarray up until very recently. Norvell did win lead the Seminoles to an undefeated regular season and an ACC championship only a year ago. While a horrible showing in the Orange Bowl helped set the awful tone for the start of this season, beating Cal was such a huge relief.

I think getting offensive coordinator Alex Atkins back after his three-game suspension as part of his show-cause was massive. Then again, points were still at a premium in the Seminoles' Week 4 victory over the Golden Bears. While I suspect that the Seminoles will play much better in the final two-thirds of this season, Norvell has lost all of the momentum he had carrying with him into this college season.

Moving on from Norvell seems like too big of a pill to swallow after this season, but it could happen.

4. North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren

This season has not gone according to plan for Dave Doeren and the North Carolina State Wolfpack. They have gone from a potential ACC championship contender, to being potentially one of the worst teams in the ACC. That may not be entirely true, but you cannot put a price on the narrative completely changing on Doeren and his team, especially after getting pushed around vs. Clemson.

Not to say they are going to do it, but Doeren's buyout would be something around $34.875 million. Doeren is making $5.5 million this year with a $125,000 baked-in escalator that gets to $6.125 million in the final year of his deal in 2029. It is not a huge sum of money, but that might be quite a lot for North Carolina State, especially when it comes to moving on from their successful head coach.

I think what this ultimately comes down to is this. NC State was expected to contend this year, and does not seem like that will be the case. I had them going 8-4 to start the year, but I didn't trust the Wolfpack's ability to be front-runners. Now, I am not so sure they are better than a .500 team. To go from College Football Playoff consideration, to maybe only fighting for a bowl game is not ideal...

While I would not move on from Doeren after this year, the Tennessee and Clemson games were bad.

3. North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown

It needs to end. Last Saturday was a total referendum on the second Mack Brown era of Tar Heels football in Chapel Hill. North Carolina got pushed around all afternoon by Bob Chesney's James Madison Dukes. While North Carolina scored a ton of points, they also surrendered 70. Clearly, the game is passing Brown by, as he does not seem to have any eye for defensive coordinator talent.

With Brown firmly in his 70s, his contract with North Carolina runs through the 2027 college season. If he were to be bought out for any reason, the Tar Heels would be on the hook for some $20 million. In all honesty, it may be a mutual parting of ways, as Brown could almost certainly retire after the end of the season. It would be up to athletic Bubba Cunningham to find a suitable long-term replacement.

For as good as Brown was during his first tenure as North Carolina's head coach the first time, as well as during the early stages leading UNC the next time, the Tar Heels do need to go in a different direction at head coach sooner rather than later. The culture that Brown helped re-establish in Chapel Hill is slowly dissipating. It may be difficult to pull the plug, but I think it is in everyone's best interest.

Now that North Carolina is down bad at quarterback and cannot play defense, now may be the time.

2. Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda

It has become increasingly obvious as to what is going on in Baylor. Dave Aranda won with Matt Rhule's players. Once the secret sauce in Joey McGuire left to go to Texas Tech, Baylor has been a shell of itself. While the Bears are 2-2 on the season, they did not look good at all vs. Utah and let one slip through their fingers vs. Colorado last week. Wins are out there, but Baylor has to go grab them.

Looking at what it may take for Baylor to move on from Aranda after this season, that may only cost the university some $16 million. That is not a ton of money, and given how poorly the Bears have performed the last few years, I would understand the university's tough decision to move on from him. It is all about finding the right replacement for him, someone who could provide some juice.

While my FanSided.com colleague and False Start co-host Cody Williams has tied someone like Deion Sanders to the job, I am not so sure of it. The right candidate could present itself, but all I know is I don't trust Baylor to contend for conference championships in the new Big 12 with Aranda at the helm of it. I would say that if Baylor does not achieve bowl eligibility, then they will have to move on.

Baylor is not the greatest Power Four job, but it is one that you can definitely make the playoff at.

1. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier

Just because Florida got back in the win column does not mean Billy Napier is safe beyond this season. I cannot even begin to imagine how badly it may have gotten for him had Florida lost to Missisippi State in Week 4 to fall to 1-3 on the season. The Gators still have a shot at acheiving bowl eligibility, but they still have to go up against the most challenging schedule in the entire country.

Should Florida move on from Napier at the end of the year, it would cost the Gators $25.5 million to do so. That feels like a reasonable price to potentially move on from a head coach who cannot get his team above .500 at a traditional power after three seasons. Florida has been vary shades of chaotic ever since Urban Meyer abruptly retired from coaching for the first time well over a decade ago now.

To me, if Florida needs to move on from Napier, then the Gators need to an active Power Four head coach, preferably one who has coaching experience in the SEC before. They need to get a guy to move to them, akin to what Dan Mullen did after leaving Mississippi State. Of course, Napier's potential successor needs to be one with recruiting, as that is what led to Mullen failing in the end.

Until proven otherwise, Napier is still sitting on the hottest seat in major college football right now.