5 extreme College Football Playoff dark horses with more of a chance than you think

As we enter the second month of the 2024 college football season, we need to assess if a handful of overachieving teams are serious College Football Playoff contenders, or if they are merely just pretenders. The beautiful part about this expanded 12-team field is it allows the underdogs a little more of a grace period of potentially getting in. Who can be this year's 2022 TCU or 2021 Cincinnati?

As I looked across the Power Four, I found five teams that intrigued me. These teams have both the record and the schedule to potentially get in. It is all about resumes, and these teams could have a great shot at putting together one that is at least somewhat compelling. Not all resumes are created equally though, so keep that in mind. Regardless, we do have more teams in the mix than expected.

Could any of these fringe contenders be eliminated with one more loss or one bad lass? Oh, that is totally within the realm of possibility. However, there is a pathway for each of them to stay alive a little longer than expected. Would I be shocked if one of these five teams got into the expanded playoff this year? Right now, yes, but I think in time there is a chance one of these darlings may grow on me.

Let's start with a team whose one loss is not as bad as meets the eye in a very winnable conference.

5. Arizona Wildcats (3-1) (1-0)

Right now, we really have no idea who could win the Big 12. I may like Iowa State for the time being, but the Cyclones are only 4-0 with a conference win over dog water Houston. While it is safe to say that the Oklahoma State Cowboys are the best team that is probably out of it, let's turn our attention to the Arizona Wildcats for just one second. They fell to Kansas State, but in the non-conference...

Yes, Arizona may be 3-1, but the Wildcats are 1-0 in Big 12 play. They may have lost by multiple scores to K-State earlier this season, but that was not a Big 12 game because of conference realignment. U of A got a huge win immediately after that in Big 12 preseason favorite Utah. The best part is even if they were to lose to BYU in a few weekends, they could get to Arlington at 10-2 (8-1).

At that point, Arizona would need to win the Big 12 to get in as the No. 4 seed (we think). An 11-2 Big 12 champion gets in. While the Colorado and UCF games could be challenging, the Wildcats do not have the hardest conference schedule left to play. Besides, they have already split the pair with Utah and Kansas State. More importantly, the K-State game being in the non-conference is not as punitive.

If Arizona loses to Texas Tech, then they are probably out of contention, but are very much alive now.

4. Duke Blue Devils (5-0) (1-0)

Admittedly, it is a quantum leap up to this next team, although I don't think the Duke Blue Devils would be favored over the Arizona Wildcats head-to-head. Regardless, Manny Diaz's team is 5-0 and fresh off a come-from-behind victory over arch rival North Carolina to commence ACC play. While the Blue Devils have yet to beat anybody worth a damn, they have a chance to get to Charlotte this season.

With only conference games remaining, I think they can conceivably beat everyone on their schedule, including the Miami Hurricanes. Their next most challenging game is probably vs. SMU. After that, it is a lot of good, but not great teams on their slate including Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech. Their other two ACC games are vs. cannon fodder in Florida State and Wake Forest.

So looking at the final seven, could Duke go 6-1? Even if they went 5-2 to finish the regular season at 10-2 (6-2), that might be enough to get to Charlotte. I wouldn't count on that, but the Blue Devils are one of a handful of teams who could conceivably play in the ACC Championship. More importantly, they avoid teams like Cal, Clemson, Louisville and Pitt in conference play. That is a huge, huge help!

Diaz is overqualified to coach at Duke. Plus, he has the perfect quarterback for him in Maalik Murphy.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) (2-0)

Look. The SEC is going to get at least four teams into the College Football Playoff, probably five, and potentially six. While Ole Miss' playoff chances are quickly fading, keep an eye on Texas A&M should the Aggies win at home on Saturday vs. a Missouri Tigers team that might not be as good as advertised. Texas A&M losing at home Week 1 to Notre Dame hurts, but it wasn't a conference game.

Although the Irish fell the following week to ... Northern Illinois, I would venture to guess that Notre Dame will still win around eight, nine or 10 games this season. At this point, I think the USC game is very winnable for them. As for the Aggies, their remaining schedule plays very much in their favor to get in with a win over Missouri. After that, they would only need to split game with LSU and Texas.

At 10-2 (7-1), Texas A&M would definitely be a playoff team, especially with wins over two ranked opponents at the time in Missouri and either LSU or Texas. If they win out, the Aggies will be going to Atlanta. Whoever gets to Atlanta will be a playoff lock, as the two best teams in the SEC during the regular season are going to be among the four, five or even six SEC teams who will be making it in.

While a loss to Missouri puts them on the brink of elimination, a win elevates their stock considerably.

2. BYU Cougars (5-0) (2-0)

I'm an idiot. I had BYU going 4-8 this year, and they are 5-0. It just goes to show how quickly things can change for the better for a college football program that knows exactly who they are. Right now, BYU is doing the best job of transitioning up from the Group of Five to the Power Four in the Big 12. I would say UCF is a close second. Although Cincinnati is starting to figure it out, Houston is cooked...

Right now, I have the Cougars as one of my first four or five teams out of the College Football Playoff picture. I just trust Iowa State a little bit more than them, but it will all sort itself out in the end. Beating SMU in the non-conference is big, as it wiping the floor with Kansas State to commence Big 12 play. My only concern about the Cougars is that they have a really tough upcoming schedule to navigate.

Their next four games are vs. Arizona, Oklahoma State, at UCF and at Utah for Holy War. If they go 3-1 during that stretch, they will get to Arlington, possibly as the No. 1 seed. Even if they split, their 10-2 (7-2) looks quite impressive. They just cannot drop their final three games to Kansas, Arizona State and Houston. Arizona State is markedly better, while Kansas and Houston look so beyond horrific.

We are going to have to serious consider putting BYU into the No. 4 spot should they beat Arizona.

1. Indiana Hoosiers (5-0) (2-0)

Through September, Curt Cignetti would win coach of the year. He took a lifeless Indiana offense and injected it with some James Madison deliciousness, and there you go. Indiana has become Windiana over the past month. At 5-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Maryland and UCLA, I don't see this team slowing down. They have the schedule to finish as strong as 11-1 (8-1). This team is surging.

Of course, I am picking Ohio State to beat the Hoosiers' brains in from inside The Horseshoe. But outside of that game in late November, their other six games are very winnable. They have at Northwestern, home vs. Nebraska, Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State and Purdue. Indiana probably needs to go 11-1 (8-1) to feel safe about its playoff chances this season.

Because of who is on their remaining schedule, the Hoosiers could pick up a few quality wins along the way before they take their beating from Ohio State. In my estimation, an 11-1 Hoosiers team makes the playoff as an at-large. If they went to the Big Ten Championship and lost, they still have a good chance of getting in at 11-2. Losing to a team like Ohio State twice would stink, but it is reality.

Through six weeks, Indiana has nearly a 50/50 shot of making the playoff, which feels unfathomable.