5 massive favorites who need to disarm a trap game in Week 3

This is one of the best parts about college football. While anybody can beat anyone on any given Sunday in the NFL, the high variance nature of having to rely on 18-to-23-year-olds in the college game can often lead to some downright wacky results. Kansas losing to Illinois was one thing, but Notre Dame getting upset at home to Northern Illinois was on nobody's radar entering last Saturday.

As non-conference play starts to wind down, that means conference play will begin in earnest for many college football teams if it hasn't started for them already. With the recently expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format, winning one's Power Four league has never been more important. Unless somebody truly undeserving wins a conference title bout, a Power Four champion will get in.

So, what I want to do today is take a look at five ranked teams who need to be well aware of the potential trap game on the horizon for them in Week 3. All five of these ranked teams are multi-score favorites going up against unranked teams, many of whom are playing on the road. I don't know if any will stumble over the course of next weekend, but you can often see trap games from a mile away.

Let's start with a longstanding in-state rivalry game that is about to go away. Odds are from ESPN Bet.

5. No. 9 Oregon Ducks (-17) at Oregon State Beavers

I could be totally wrong in this, but I am not the least bit sold on the Oregon Ducks right now. This was the team I picked to reach the national championship game. Oregon would have been my No. 3 team in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll if I had a vote. Now, I couldn't even put them into the 12-team playoff after what I saw out of them the last two weeks. The Ducks really struggled with some Idaho schools.

Playing with their food vs. Idaho was one thing, but nearly stumbling to Group of Five contender Boise State last week was another. While Boise State was many pundits' pick to win the Group of Five, I had Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel pegged as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. I don't know what the big difference is, but this looks like a different team with him running point instead of one Bo Nix.

With a road date at Corvallis for The Strife Aquatic vs. the Oregon State Beavers, this could be Trent Bray's Super Bowl. The rivalry is still technically alive, but could be going away in due time due to Oregon leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. Oregon State may not be able to hold a candle to Oregon this season, but it is still way too early in the season for anybody on that team to know any better.

I am not counting on Oregon State winning, but I could see a potential upset on the horizon at Reser.

4. No. 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Was last week's overtime thriller vs. Arkansas Mike Gundy's Gator's Hunting Rabbits Game? The up-and-down nature of his Oklahoma State Cowboys continue to mesmerize us some two decades into his coaching career at his alma mater. I thought Oklahoma State was going to barbecue the Hogs alive, but nearly lost to a team I thought was massively inferior to the Pokes. That one was so wild...

Flash forward to this week, and do you really think this is the 13th best team in the country? When the Cowboys are playing well and firing on all cylinders, I could get behind that argument. However, there is a chance Oklahoma State could really embarrass itself when it takes on its little brother school across the state in the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. I don't know if they are good, but the Pokes lose these.

It is within every bit of Gundy's nature to go undefeated in conference play, but lose a dumb one in the non-conference to a Group of Five team. This is the same program that missed out on playing for a national championship in 2011 because the Pokes lost a dumb one to the Clones in Ames. I don't think Tulsa is going to rock Oklahoma State like a hurricane, but this is within the realm of possibility.

It might be a 20-point spread, but I think there is a really good chance that Tulsa covers at home.

3. Arkansas State Red Wolves at No. 17 Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)

There is no way Michigan could lose at home in back-to-back weeks. Then again, have you seen this offense try to move the football down the field? No, thank you! I cannot for the life of me understand why Michigan did not pursue guys like Dequan Finn or Jordan McCloud in the transfer portal. I didn't know who Davis Warren was until I was told he was starting vs. Fresno State. I was all-in on Alex Orji!

Admittedly, Michigan was never going to beat Texas when the Longhorns came to The Big House last week. I saw what the two rosters were cooking up. Texas was cooking brisket with collard greens, cornbread and macaroni cheese on the side. Michigan seemed to have forgotten people were coming over to their place, so they scurried to gather up some Hot and Readys left out overnight.

With the Butch Jones and the Arkansas State Red Wolves coming to town, they could play spoiler before the Wolverines commence conference play. This is a program that has faded away into irrelevancy in the Group of Five in recent years, but Jones did win at a high level before at that level in the wake of Brian Kelly's many successes. I am not counting on it, but I am not ruling this out either.

If Michigan fell to 1-2 with a loss to Arkansas State, don't allow Sherrone Moore to sign the contract.

2. Tulane Green Wave at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)

Look. I'm going to be one of the first to say it. Oklahoma has no business being a top-15 team in the country. Maybe this time next year, but for now, we still don't have any definitive answers at quarterback with Jackson Arnold, nor do we have a ton of faith that Brent Venables is going to work in the SEC as a head coach. Now we have the Tulane Green Wave coming to town after scaring K-State...

Jon Sumrall might be my favorite Group of Five head coach. What he did previously at Troy was phenomenal and he will never get the credit he deserves for making the Trojans one of the most consistently strong teams in the Sun Belt. He takes over for Willie Fritz, who left for Houston for some reason. Keep in mind that Oklahoma nearly fell to Houston, who might be the worst team in the P4.

The fact Oklahoma is only laying 14 points at home to a Group of Five team tells you everything you need to know. I may be losing faith in Kansas State due to Avery Johnson's inexperience under center at the college level, but I still like the Wildcats more than I do the Sooners. I don't know if Oklahoma will get upset by the Greenies this week, but they are going to get blown out at home by Tennessee.

For whatever reason, Tulane always seems to show up in these big games vs. Power Four opponents.

1. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-16) at Wisconsin Badgers

Are you ready for a potential trap game that could conceivably snowball? I could totally wrong here and Alabama could get to 4-0 with wins over Wisconsin this weekend in Madison and then at home vs. Georgia in a few weeks, but there is a chance Kalen DeBoer's team may be looking ahead to the UGA date and not putting in the necessary work to beat Wisconsin, a team I am liking more and more.

I may have reservations about Wisconsin's chances of running an Air Raid off-shoot in a harsh northern climate long-term, but the weather is still quite nice out in the early part of September. We know that Luke Fickell is a fantastic head coach, and he just picked up former Miami Hurricanes starter Tyler Van Dyke in the transfer portal. He might be the perfect quarterback to run Phil Longo's system.

As far as Alabama is concerned, this was going to be a risky road date for the Crimson Tide anyway, even before Nick Saban retired. I don't have the Badgers being more than just a fun team to watch in the Big Ten this year, so they are playing with house money at home as a 16-point underdog. With how much Alabama struggled with South Florida last week, the Tide cannot do that vs. Wisconsin.

Alabama's first third of its regular season schedule was not easy, and it is only getting more difficult.