7 College Football Playoff contenders SMU could hurt tremendously with a playoff bid

What about them Ponies? Yeah, what about them? Well, Rhett Lashlee's SMU Mustangs are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in ACC play after beating the Louisville Cardinals on the road in Week 6. It hasn't always been pretty, but the Ponies actually have a few things working for them. Since pivoting to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, this looks like a totally different team offensively. This team is fun!

More importantly, the 5-1 Mustangs are starting to put together the resume to potentially be a bid stealer in the expanded College Football Playoff. At the start of the year, I had them losing to Miami in Charlotte. That is still very much in play. Should that hypothetical result flip, that might be enough to two teams in from the ACC: 12-1 conference champ SMU and 12-1 runner-up Miami as an at-large.

So in that extreme hypothetical, one would think that the ACC would be stealing a spot reserved for an SEC or a Big Ten team. Right now, I feel very confident that the SEC will be getting in at least four teams, possibly five. As for the Big Ten, I feel very confident that it will be getting in at least three teams, possibly four and maybe even five. However, SMU going bid stealing would ruin all of that.

Here are seven playoff-contending teams who need for SMU to stumble one more time this season.

7. Ole Miss Rebels

Truth be told, Ole Miss is probably not a playoff team. One more loss probably eliminates the Rebels from the equation. They still have to play Georgia and LSU this season, but the Rebels have to take care of business vs. a very feisty South Carolina team first. At 11-1 (7-1), Ole Miss will be getting in, but 10-2 (6-2) is probably not quite good enough, especially after last week's tough loss to Kentucky.

Even if the Rebels were to run the gauntlet, or somehow still be in the conversation at something like 10-2, they would be vying for that No. 10 or No. 11 seed. If SMU were to win the ACC, the Mustangs would be a top-four seed. Should they lose to someone like Miami in the ACC title bout, their two losses would be to the ACC champion Hurricanes, as well as to a potential Big 12 winner in BYU...

Ole Miss lacks the necessary resume to get in without some help, and the Ponies may shut them out.

6. Missouri Tigers

As is the case with Ole Miss, a bad loss this early in SEC play really puts Missouri behind the eight ball. While Ole Miss' loss was only by three points, it was to a Kentucky team that will be fighting for bowl eligibility all season long. Although Missouri fell to Texas A&M, it was a brutal blowout loss on the road for the Tigers. With their weak schedule coming up, could they even get in with a 10-2 record?

The hardest games left on Missouri's schedule are at Alabama, and that is about it. Oklahoma may still be good, but the Tigers are really counting on Arkansas and South Carolina to be good when they play them. Since they won't get in over Texas A&M all things equal, the last thing Missouri needs is for a team like SMU to go bid stealing. SMU may end up earning their way in anyway, but Missouri will not.

Missouri may have lost to a better opponent than Ole Miss, but the Texas A&M defeat is still so brutal.

5. LSU Tigers

While LSU will have the opportunity to potentially get to Atlanta with its fairly navigable schedule, the Bayou Bengals will still have to overcome a tough non-conference loss to USC. It went down to the wire, but ended up in the Trojans' favor. LSU was able to keep is playoff dreams alive by surviving a trap game at South Carolina. That win might look better in time with how well South Carolina can play.

To be totally honest, LSU has not looked like a playoff team all season long. They have not been a team I have projected as a team that will make it since falling to USC in Las Vegas. The Tigers still need to show me something. Right now, I have a hard time seeing them going 8-0 in SEC play, getting to Atlanta, and then winning there. Therefore, they might get in as one of the last few at-large teams.

LSU needs to focus on what the Tigers can control, because they cannot control a team like an SMU.

4. USC Trojans

Now that I have hit three fringe SEC playoff teams in a row, how about one in the BIg Ten? Yes, I am talking about the USC Trojans. They have a big non-conference win over a solid LSU team, but lost its Big Ten opener on the road vs. a very one-dimensional Michigan offense. In short, that loss may prove too costly in the Trojans' quest of getting to Indianapolis as a top-two team in the new Big Ten.

For my money, you need to safely be a top-three team in the Big Ten to guarantee inclusion into the 12-team College Football Playoff. Having the loss to Michigan, a team you will honeslty be competing for playoff positioning with, is less than ideal. Four teams in the Big Ten may make it in, possibly five. The big question is where will USC land when the dust settles over in Big Ten Country at season's end.

While I really like USC's chances of getting in right now, they cannot be subjected to any bid stealing.

3. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is a strange one. I don't know how good they are, but the Wolverines have a newfound identity offensively, one that I wholehearteldy accept. They are a run-first, and mostly run, attack with Alex Orji at quarterback. Kalel Mullings has been otherworldly, and Donovan Edwards has been there! While the Texas blowout won't ruin them, the home win over USC remains a huge boost for Michigan.

Should Michigan finish the year at something like 10-2 with losses to Texas in the non-conference and to Ohio State to finish the season, we have to wonder if that will be good enough to get in. I would think so, but what if they had to face Ohio State in an immediate rematch in Indianapolis? What if they lost to the Buckeyes or the Oregon Ducks to finish the year at 10-3? Michigan would be on the fence.

Any potential bid stealing by a team like SMU would make us really look hard at Michigan's resume.

2. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M may be riding high after crushing Missouri's spirits with a tremendous Week 6 blowout victory in College Station, but the Aggies were always going to need some help to get in. Their lone loss is not of the bad variety, as it was at home to Notre Dame in the non-conference way back in Week 1. If Texas A&M wins out, they are getting to Atlanta, and will be getting in no matter the result.

It is about getting to 11 wins in College Station. That feels like a magic number for them. The Missouri win is still huge, but they probably need to split between LSU and Texas to have a puncher's chance of making the playoff as an at large team. In my estimation, SMU winning the ACC and Miami finishing as a runner-up at 12-1 or even 11-2 might be too much for Texas A&M to surely get in as a 10-2 team.

The Aggies are playing more like a team that belongs, but they can't leave anything to doubt just yet.

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The only team who needs to be more fearful of potential bid stealing of teams who could probably get in are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. See, I did rank these seven on potential likelihood of getting in in some capacities. Notre Dame beat Texas A&M, who could beat Texas, who beat Michigan, who beat USC, who beat LSU, who could beat Ole Miss. It is so close, yet so far... This thing is so bonkers!

To be quite frank, the biggest thing holding Notre Dame back is this, and always was this: The Fighting Irish don't play in a conference. By remaining fiercely nationally independent in football, they will not have the 13th data point available to prove they belong. They may have to win out because their loss to Northern Illinois in the non-conference may be viewed as two losses by the Selection Committee.

Notre Dame was always in the group of ACC and Big 12 teams who may get invitations to the playoff.