Ackeem Blake beats Fred Kerley in predicted 100m stunner: Bad, good and perfect takes
By Tim O'Hearn
BRUSSELS, Belgium — On Thursday, this author imagined upset scenarios for the 16 Diamond League events occurring on Friday evening.
Each upset had two components: what might cause the projected favorite to not win and who might claim the top spot. Most of the marks from the first night in Brussels were unimpressive, which gave life to some far-flung plots.
This article will analyze all takes, bucketing them into the categories of Bad, Good, and Perfect.
The best take was that Ackeem Blake would somehow win the 100m dash. Win he did!
Bad Takes
Men's 1500m
Prediction: "In this scenario, Eliot Giles, who has had a season filled with falls and undulating performances, might be the cheeky spoiler. Giles is coming off a road mile world record of 3:51.3 and he has the wheels to conquer the best in this event in a record chase gone awry."
Chiefly, there was no world record attempt. The pacing in the men's 1500m was set for 3:30. Jakob won easily and Eliot Giles finished last. Though the odds of this take being realized were incredibly long, the predicted scenario was the polar opposite of what actually happened. Betting against Jakob Ingebrigtsen is futile.
Men's 5000m
Prediction: "The upset here would be a late charge by Ethiopian Yomif Kejelcha, who has been absolutely cursed with how many times he’s put himself within striking distance just to finish just off the podium at major championships."
Barihu Aregawi and Hagos Gebrhiwet were projected to be the favorites. This duo ended up winning quite easily. Meanwhile, Yomif Kejelcha was punished for his quasi-pacesetting and finished out of contact in 12:51.21.
Men's Discus
Though favorite Mykolas Alekna was toppled, the toppling came from Matthew Denny's massive 69.96m launch on his first throw. Selected spoiler Kristjan Ceh continued a string of mediocre performances. There's quite a bit of shuffling in the ranks of the men's discus, so to not nail this "upset" prediction is to have made a bad call.
Women's 400m
Prediction: "Paulino dominated the 400m this year, and left no doubt that she can carry the mantle in the absence of Shanae Miller-Uibo. Rhasidat Adeleke is a natural 400m runner and might be able to continue her improvements with a good lane draw, measured race, and brave finish."
Times were very slow and ripe for upset (Sydney McGlaughlin-Levrone ran 49.11 in the non-Diamond League heat just before), but Paulino won easily and Adeleke's 3rd place wasn't convincing.
Men's Pole Vault
Mondo Duplantis was never going to face an upset here. However, selected spoiler Sam Kendricks only vaulted 5.82 to tie for third with Belgian Ben Broeders. On Mondo's worst day, 5.82m wouldn't have been enough.
Women's 100m
Anyone who has been following the 100m this season can guess what the prediction was without having read the previous article. Sha'Carri and Julien Alfred were favorites, and Ta Lou-Smith would finally, finally, get a taste of gold. This ended up being somewhere between a good and bad take.
The prediction specified that the winner would be "well under" 10.9. Alfred's 10.88 for the win didn't give credence to that, and Sha'Carri seemed to shut down early for a 7th-place 11.23. Ta Lou-Smith finished in 3rd in 11.05. Aside from notching more prize money, this performance in a field with no Jamaicans earns her very little heading into the off season.
Women's Triple Jump
Cuba's Leyanis Pérez Hernández was probably the real favorite, which was not addressed in the prediction. She won with a bizarre series that saw only one jump count. Shanieka Ricketts jumped pretty well for second, but possible spoiler Jasmine Moore was awful, jumping just 13.89m for 5th in a field of six.
Good Takes
Men's 110m Hurdles
The prediction was that Cordell Tinch would have an opening for a late-season triumph. American co-favorites Freddie Crittenden and Daniel Roberts did run poorly, Tinch finished fourth, and it was Frenchman Sasha Zhoya who spoiled the party, running 13.16. Another part of the prediction was that one of four Americans in the race would certainly win. The results show an American contingent totally scrambled in the absence of Grant Holloway.
Women's High Jump
Well, Mahuchik won and Olyslagers was second, in a tale that is familiar to followers of the high jump. The perspective from Tribune 2, Section C of King Baudouin Stadium revealed that Olyslagers was very close to clearing 1.97m and setting up a real showdown with her rival. Her rival, of course, was perfect up until 1.97m.
Women's 800m
Prediction: "For Bell, the surprise 1500m bronze medalist in the Olympics, she has a chance to prove her performance wasn’t a fluke. A come-from-behind victory is within reach."
Georgia Bell's challenge to front-runner Mary Moraa at 200m was so unexpected that the in-stadium announcer had her confused with Moraa's co-favorite Jemma Reekie.
In the end, Bell got smoked by Mary Moraa on the home straight, 1:56.56 to 1:57.50. Bell's late race surge was complicated by her poor positioning earlier in the race which required her to run extra distance on most, if not all, of the curves. Reekie had a terrible last 150m and won't enter 2025 with the fanfare that should be afforded to a 1:56 woman.
Men's 400m
Matthew Hudson-Smith, the favorite, pulled up 150m into the race. His countryman Charlie Dobson won as he dealt a shocking defeat to Kirani James, who placed second. Kirani James had been selected as the spoiler here, and he almost pulled it off.
Charlie's caper was significant enough to warrant a standalone article.
Mens' 3000m Steeplechase
Olympic gold medalist Soufiane El Bakkali did lose, though to a man who had a faster season's best than him. Amos Serem had already run 8:02.36 to 8:04.29, and he blasted away from El Bakkali on the home stretch to deny him a Diamond League championship made much easier in the absence of Lemecha Girma.
Daniel Arce, the predicted spoiler, ran two seconds off his recent personal best to finish 5th and prove that he reached a new level this year. Unfortunately, that new level did not see him crowned DL champion.
Women's Discus
Val Allman won, but Feng Bin had a fantastic sixth throw to show she was indeed the most worthy challenger. Allman's series showed she was vulnerable.
Perfect Takes
Men's Long Jump
Prediction: "At the current point in time, Greek Miltiadis Tentoglou owns the long jump. What might not be well-known is that Jamaican Tajay Gayle actually owns the best personal best in this field, with an insane 8.69m. Though he’s jumped nowhere near that number this year and hasn’t been much of a rival to Tentoglou, he is, of course, capable of this caper."
Tajay Gayle found something of his old form and jumped 8.28m (and 8.17m) to beat Simon Ehammer (8.16m) and Miltiadis Tentoglou (8.15m).
Women's Shot Put
Prediction: "Silver medalist Sarah Mitton can capitalize on any mistakes Jackson makes to cap a stellar season."
Though the prediction was true, it isn't fair to pitch Chase Jackson against Sarah Mitton as a David versus Goliath, favorite versus spoiler, scenario. This was not a bold prediction, there would not have been widespread agreement on who the favorite was coming into the season finale. In Brussels, it was a toss-up, but Chase Jackson did make two "mistakes"--she logged two invalid throws.
Men's 100m
Prediction: "Jamaican Ackeem Blake, whose rise has been overshadowed by countryman Kishane Thompson, will be looking for revenge and a shock win against a weakened late-season field."
Check the receipts — Ackeem Blake upset Fred Kerley for an improbable Diamond League title. His time of 9.93 isn't anything special. Somehow, he was the only man to break 10 seconds in a race that felt more like an early season rust buster than a finale.
The Americans desperately needed the 2025 World Championship bye, which is award to the Diamond League champion, so that they could send four men to Tokyo next year. Ackeem Blake has done his part to bridge Team Jamaica's strokes of brilliance this season to a 2025 where multiple men can be fighting for podium spots and relay gold.