Projecting upsets at Day 1 of Brussels Diamond League

32 individual champions will be crowned at the two-day Diamond League Final in Brussels this weekend. Though every field is packed with favorites who accrued enough points during the 14-meet regular season to qualify for the final, head-to-head matchups always carry the chance of upsets.

This article won’t address quests for continued dominance or world records. Rather, it will explore some of the longshot athletes and their bids to become champions. Diamond League Champions win $30,000 and automatically qualify for the following World Championship, which in this case will occur in Tokyo in 2025.

The first 16 events of the program will be contested on Friday night. For each event, this author has selected a projected favorite, or favorites, and a selected spoiler. The spoiler wins in a hypothetical scenario that may involve potential showcased in past performances, or what may simply be a matter of making for a compelling storyline.

Projecting Day 1 upsets in Brussels Diamond League

Women’s Discus

Favorite: Valerie Allman

Spoiler: Feng Bin

Valerie Allman has won the discus throw in the last two editions of the Olympic Games and shows no signs of slowing down. In picking her challenger, it’s a matter of picking a name out of a hat, such as silver medalist Feng Bin. 

Men’s Long Jump

Favorite: Miltiadis Tentoglou

Spoiler: Tajay Gayle

At the current point in time, Greek Miltiadis Tentoglou owns the long jump. What might not be well-known is that Jamaican Tajay Gayle actually owns the best personal best in this field, with an insane 8.69m. Though he’s jumped nowhere near that number this year and hasn’t been much of a rival to Tentoglou, he is, of course, capable of this caper.

Women’s Shot Put

Favorite: Chase Jackson

Spoiler: Sarah Mitton

American Chase Jackson owns the best shot put of the 2024 season, but she didn’t medal in Paris. Silver medalist Sarah Mitton can capitalize on any mistakes Jackson makes to cap a stellar season.

Men’s Pole Vault

Favorite: Mondo Duplantis

Spoiler: Sam Kendricks

Mondo Duplantis is the prohibitive favorite in the pole vault, by every metric and every analysis. He is so far ahead of his closest competitor that predicting his downfall is to predict whether some act of god keeps him from competing.

His most formidable challenger is probably American Sam Kendricks, who owns a lifetime best of 6.06m and who finished behind Mondo in the Olympics this year. It’s likely, though, that Kendricks will find himself eliminated and relegated to his usual duty of runway air traffic controller, measuring the wind for Mondo during a world record attempt deep into the competition.

Women’s 400m

Favorite: Mariledy Paulino

Spoiler: Rhasidat Adeleke

Paulino dominated the 400m this year, and left no doubt that she can carry the mantle in the absence of Shanae Miller-Uebo. Rhasidat Adeleke is a natural 400m runner and might be able to continue her improvements with a good lane draw, measured race, and brave finish.

Men’s 100m

Favorite: Fred Kerley

Spoiler: Ackeem Blake

Fred Kerley and Akani Simbine have shown few weaknesses this year. Jamaican Ackeem Blake, whose rise has been overshadowed by countryman Kishane Thompson, will be looking for revenge and a shock win against a weakened late-season field.

Men’s 110m Hurdles

Favorites: Daniel Roberts and Freddie Crittenden

Spoiler: Cordell Tinch

Cordell Tinch’s entrance into the top level of the sport has become a legend. Though he failed to make the US Olympic Team, he’s strung together fast performances on the circuit, though he’s lacked the big one. Without Grant Holloway in this race, an American, surely, will win. Tinch’s victory would be the sweetest.

Women’s High Jump

Favorite: Yaroslava Mahuchik

Spoiler: Nicola Olyslagers

Yaroslava Mahuchik broke the high jump world record this year. The Ukrainian leapt to superstardom as she cleared 2.10m. The next-closest personal best in the field is Nicola Olyslagers’ 2.03m, which has made her a perennial championship medalist. Olyslagers must be the most likely challenger here, as she will seek to bridge the gap before Mahuchik achieves true Mondo-level separation over the rest of the world.

Men’s Discus

Favorite: Mykolas Alekna

Spoiler: Kristjan Čeh

Mykolas Alekna launched a windy world record throw of 74.35m this season to establish himself as the class of the field, though with a big asterisk. He continued his warpath this season just to be upset himself by Jamaica’s Rojé Stona in Paris.

2022 World Champion Kristjan Čeh, meanwhile, has had a disappointing 2024 season, regressing to where he was in 2021, a season where he threw 70.35. If Čeh returns to his top form and is able to heave one discus in the realm of 71 mid, he can correct his downward year and win the Diamond League final.

Men’s 5000m

Favorite: Hagos Gebrhewit and Beihu Aregawi

Spoiler: Yomif Kejelcha

Look–an Ethiopian distance runner will win this race. For the better part of a decade, a contingent of Ethiopian men has been a constant feature on the circuit. Several of these fine distance runners have run 12:40 or faster and have challenged the world record. With a smaller field and a 2025 World Championship berth on the line, there’s no telling how this race will play out.

The upset here would be a late charge by Ethiopian Yomif Kejelcha, who has been absolutely cursed with how many times he’s put himself within striking distance just to finish just off the podium at major championships. Not only can Kejelcha win it all, he can break the world record of 12:35.36

Women’s Triple Jump

Favorite: Shanieka Ricketts

Spoiler: Jasmine Moore

Shanieka placed second at the Olympics with a respectable 14.87m jump. Just behind her, in 14.67m, was American Jasmine Moore, who holds an impressive best of 15.12m. There are six women in the field so the pressure will be on from the first jump. Moore can return to form of seasons past and win.

Women’s 100m

Favorites: Sha’Carri Richardson and Julien Alfred

Spoiler: Marie-Josée Ta Lou-Smith

35-year-old Marie-Josée Ta Lou-Smith has been a perennial bridesmaid for the back half of her career. Though she earned two silver medals in the 100m and 200m in the World Championships in London, that was seven years ago. She has continued to perform at the top level, qualifying for most finals.

Against the much-younger Olympic 1-2 punch of Alfred and Richardson, Ta Lou might be able to make her last bid for glory with a desperate jolt back to 10.7 shape. The winner of this race will be well under 10.9. 

Men’s 3k Steeplechase

Favorite: Soufiane El Bakkali

Spoiler: Daniel Arce

In the absence of Lemecha Girma, who suffered an injury in the Olympic final, Moroccan Soufiane El Bakkali is favored to win this race.

What track fans missed during El Bakkali’s last race, the Silesia Diamond League, is that he was tracked closely in a brave effort by Spaniard Daniel Arce. Arce’s all-out effort was apparent and he earned a massive personal best of 8:08. It’s unlikely that this race is won in under eight minutes, even if El Bakkali has a Moroccan pacer to help him on his terms. Arce has heart, and he’ll be one of the most intriguing dark horse runners at this meet.

Men’s 1500m

Favorite: Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Spoiler: Eliot Giles

Jakob will likely run for the world record with Yared Nuguse and Cole Hocker in tow. If he runs out of gas, many men could be fighting for the title.

In this scenario, Eliot Giles, who has had a season filled with falls and undulating performances, might be the cheeky spoiler. Giles is coming off a road mile world record of 3:51.3 and he has the wheels to conquer the best in this event in a record chase gone awry.

Women’s 800m

Favorites: Jemma Reekie and Mary Moraa

Spoiler: Georgia Bell

Georgia Bell’s shocking 1:56.28 this season doesn’t exactly mean she’s on the outside looking in, but Jemma Reekie, Mary Moraa and Natoya Goule-Toppin all have faster PRs and significantly more top-class racing experience.

For Bell, the surprise 1500m bronze medalist in the Olympics, she has a chance to prove her performance wasn’t a fluke. A come-from-behind victory is within reach.

Men’s 400m

Favorite: Matthew Hudson-Smith

Spoiler: Kirani James

Kirani James is the most decorated 400m runner still actively racing. He owns three World Championship medals and three Olympic medals in the individual event. However, he did not earn an Olympic medal this year. This season, the 32-year-old’s brilliant final in Paris was not good enough as he faded to 5th in 43.87. The defending Diamond League Champion will head to Brussels as a podium contender, but not the outright favorite.

Matthew Hudson-Smith, the second place finisher from Paris, brings a monumental PR of 43.44 to this final as the clear man to beat. James, for all his top-level racing, has only mustered a lifetime best of 43.74. James is a safe pick to upset him and bronze medalist Muzala Samukonga. American Vernon Norwood, the only American in the final, is the feel-good pick to take the title.