During a year where more than 10 athletics world records have already been broken, fans now look to the Diamond League Final in Brussels, Belgium to add at least one more.
In an Olympic year, the prospect of being named Diamond League Champion, trophy and all, is overshadowed by hardware from the Olympic Games. Spectators and athletes alike will head into this two-day contest searching not for personal bests, but for world records.
Rather than focusing on late-season scenarios and storylines and prize money, this article will address only the victory scenario for each event, and the probability of that victory resulting in a world record.
For the sake of brevity, field events are excluded, with the acknowledgement that the men’s pole vault has the overall highest chance of a new record. Mondo Duplantis has, technically speaking, “vaulted” higher than 6.27m at several points in his career, while “clearing” slightly lower bars.
Men’s 100m
(Bolt, 9.58)
Though Olympic bronze medalist Fred Kerley has, on several occasions, said or implied that he will break the 100m world record of 9.58, he hasn’t broken 9.80 yet this season. He’s the favorite in this race, as Noah Lyles and Kishane Thompson aren’t running, but this is the type of race to be won in 9.86.
The better of Bolt’s individual records will, surely, live on.
Probability: .01%
Men’s 110mH
(Merritt, 12.80)
American Aries Merritt’s world record came during a string of perfect races back in 2012. Olympic gold medalist Grant Holloway ran a mighty close 12.81 in 2021 and just set the record for most races under 13 seconds. Unfortunately, Holloway pulled out of the Diamond League final due to what was reported to be a financial dispute.
This race will be Freddie Crittenden against Daniel Roberts. Expectations should be set at 13.00.
Probability: .01%
Men’s 200m
(Bolt, 19.19)
First, Noah Lyles was surely going to take down Bolt’s 200m record. Then, Erriyon Knighton was crowned as the spoiler. Then, this season, Letsile Tebogo showed his stuff.
In a race that will feature Knighton, Tebogo, and American Kenny Bednarek, who just took his PR down to 19.57, there can be an outside challenge to Bolt’s 19.19. Knighton could find his previous form that saw him run 19.49 in an early-season race in 2022. Tebogo has shut down early in some wickedly fast races this year. The perfect race at full effort with a strong turn definitely gets him into the 19.20s.
Probability: .5%
Men’s 400m
(Van Niekerk, 43.03)
The world’s best 400m runners must be banged up after such a long season. Only three men in the field have broken 44. Breaking the world record of 43.03 will, likely, entail breaking 43. Matthew Hudson-Smith, with a PR of 43.44 and a gleaming Olympic silver, will have to risk an all-but-certain Diamond League podium finish if he wants to demolish his personal best and topple the world record.
Probability: .125%
Men’s 400mH
(Warholm, 45.94)
For one of the few men’s track events where the world record holder is still competing, fans will be disappointed to learn that Karsten Warholm will not be running in Brussels. Neither will Olympic gold medalist Rai Benjamin. The remaining hurdler from the triarchy, Alison Dos Santos, did not finish his last race and hasn’t shown any indication this season that he can run in the low 46s.
Probability: .05%
Men’s 800m
(Rudisha, 1:40.91)
The men’s 800m is the race to watch on the men’s side. There are four 1:41 men in the race, all of whom ran massive PRs this season. For Emmanuel Wanyonyi (1:41.11) and Marco Arop (1:41.20), the world record is painfully close.
The field features only nine men which reduces the risk of collisions or anyone having to run much extra distance. Marc Carrera, an 800m runner who competed in the Puerto Rican Championships this season, shared this insight:
“While the 1500m group has momentum, I see the 800 [world record] being in danger more – [it’s the] late season and guys are probably sharper (speedier) than they are on the aerobic side.”
Now that the best runners in the world have had the entire season to feel each other out and carefully measure their efforts, they will look to run a race in Brussels that may go on to define the event for the next decade.
Probability: 12%
Men’s 1500m
(El Guerrouj, 3:26.00)
Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s personal best in the 1500m stands at 3:26.73. Just a few weeks ago, he smashed the 3000m world record, running 7:17.55. On Jakob’s quest for all ten distance running world records, the 1500m is the hardest-to-snuff remaining track record as well as the one where he is thought to have the least amount of time remaining before he slows down or before someone younger steals the record.
Though Jakob was ill in the last Diamond League stop and is rumored to be considering a half marathon race in Copenhagen two days after this race, this could be as good a chance as any to break 3:26 even.
Note: A previous prediction of 10% was provided on Aug. 28. The probability below only considers this event, and factors in the recent illness. Without the illness and a stronger performance for the win in Zurich, this is closer to 5 percent.
Probability: 2%
Men’s 3k Steeple
(7:52.11, Girma)
Lemecha Girma’s world record being broken in the same season where a fall in the Olympic final left him hospitalized feels fundamentally inconsiderate. Of course, the sport goes on in his absence.
Girma’s 8:01.36 from earlier this year is the world lead, and Soufiane El Bakkali is the only man in the field who has ever broken eight minutes. It appears that El Bakkali will have at least one pacer from Morocco joining him in this race, but without Girma there to push him, the record is out of reach.
Probability: .05%
Men’s 5k
(12:35.36, Cheptegei)
Jakob isn’t running this event–it occurs roughly one hour before the men’s 1500m. Though the weather appears to be cool, if the Rome 5000m race is any indicator, several runners in this field will have to sacrifice themselves if the winner is to have a chance of breaking the world record. That 5k race broke down shortly after the pacers stepped off, and the field easily reeled back in the exhausted, slowing leaders.
There are four Ethiopians in the field. Berihu Aregawi ran a 7:20 3k behind Jakob’s world record, while Hagos Gebrhiwet has run 12:36.73 in the 5k. There is a legitimate chance that this strong world record will be challenged. If Jakob had to watch a world record be set from the stands, that would sting.
Probability: 1%
Women’s 100m
(Griffith-Joyner, 10.49)
FloJo’s almost-certainly-wind-aided world record of 10.49 could come under threat by another duel between Sha’Carri Richardson and Julien Alfred. Richardson redeemed her Olympic loss to Alfred in Zurich. They’ll be looking to set the stage for a new era of the event against a field that, shockingly, features no Jamaican women.
Probability: .05%
Women’s 100mH
(Amusan, 12.12)
Like the men’s race, the women’s high hurdles event requires perfect execution and cooperative wind. The wind can’t be too strong in either direction, otherwise it risks affecting the rhythm of the race.
Though Tobi Amusan’s record is tainted following her three missed doping tests, this race has a slightly higher chance of a record performance compared to the men’s race. Ackera Nugent, who has been excellent in the late season, could drop her PR of 12.24 as an affront to Amusan’s mark.
Probability: .025%
Women’s 200m
(Griffith-Joyner, 21.34)
In an unexpected double header, Sydney McGlaughlin-Levrone will be competing in a one-off 200m race outside of the Diamond League program. This is unfortunate because her placement in the official 200m race would have set up a showdown against Sha’Carri Richardson. Such a showdown could have been the best sprint race this season, across genders and championships.
Sydney is primed to break her PR of 22.07. While her challenging the Koch 400m record has some people talking, this record is likely still outside of the wheelhouse of the star hurdler.
Probability: .05%
Women’s 400m
(Koch, 47.60)
The women’s 400m will be very, very interesting. There will be two races. In one, the proper Diamond League race, Olympic champion Mariledy Paulino will fend off Salwa Eid Naser. In the other, Sydney McGlaughlin-Levrone, who did not qualify for the Diamond League final, will be attempting to break her PR of 48.75.
Considering that Sydney, who is also running the 200m in a one-off race at this meet, has run in the low 50s in this distance with hurdles in the way, it is widely accepted that she has the speed and fitness to break 47 seconds. Sydney, running against a lower-quality field, will almost certainly overshadow this Diamond League final.
Probability: .25%
Women’s 400mH
(McGlaughlin-Levrone, 50.37)
Without Sydney competing, the world record won’t fall. World #2 Femke Bol took a risk in Paris and showed how close to the edge her performances are, as she ran out of gas and placed third. Bol’s PR of 50.95 this season was run at altitude, and when converted it suggests she’s nearly a full second off Sydney’s mark.
Probability: .01%
Women’s 800m
(Kratochvilova, 1:53.28)
The women’s 800m world record, one of the oldest in track and field, will remain out of reach this season. Great Britain’s Jemma Reekie has dipped furthest into the 1:55s, with a 1:55.61. The women’s 800m hasn’t seen the same performance bump as the men’s event has this season. The women who were once said to have a shot at breaking the record, Keeley Hodgkinson and Athing Mu, are both finished for the season.
The amount of improvement required to take down this record is formidable.
Probability: .005%
Women’s 1500m
(Kipyegon, 3:49.04)
Can Faith Kipyegon break the world record again this year? Yes. This sounds ridiculous considering the world record is 3:49.04. It’s really Kipyegon versus the world here, even though challengers such as Jess Hull have emerged.
The pacing will have to be perfect and Jess Hull may be there to run 3:51 or so if Kipyegon falters, but it’s Kipyegon against the clock here.
Probability: 6%
Women’s 3k Steeple
(Chepkoech, 8:44.32)
Bahrain’s Winfred Yavi ran one of the more bizarre steeplechase races in recent history, where in Rome she seemed to realize on the home straight that she had a shot at the world record. Her final sprint earned her No. 2 all-time with an 8:44.39.
If she captures that same energy, Yavi can take down this record. Late race pacing from Peruth Chemutai would be valuable.
Probability: 1%
Women’s 5k
(Tsegay, 14:00.21)
Will we see the first woman run under 14 minutes for the 5k? This field, which does not feature defending world record holder Gudaf Tsegay, will be lead by Beatrice Chebet, who has a personal best of 14:05.92. What was billed as a world record attempt in Zurich saw Chebet run a dominant 14:09, which still isn’t particularly close to the record. She’ll be chasing perfection in trying to get under 14 minutes. The men’s 5k record has a much better chance of going.
Probability: .1%