Best NFL Survivor Pool picks, Week 5: Trust Jayden Daniels, don’t trust Daniel Jones, wait on Chiefs

NFL survivor pools were decimated for three consecutive weeks as the overwhelming favorite picks continuously disappointed those who trusted them. The Cincinnati Bengals lost to the New England Patriots in Week 1. The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2, and the Las Vegas Raiders lost to the Carolina Panthers in Week 3.

With survivor pools dwindling down rapidly, the San Francisco 49ers finally put an end to the streak in Week 4. While the favorite pick managed to pull out a victory, upsets have continued to cause chaos. 

Underdogs winning at a historic pace in 2024. Underdogs of at least a touchdown are 5-2, tied for most such wins through Week 4 in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN. 

After the opening month of the season, the good teams are beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the league. Still, the decisions made moving forward will only get more difficult for those that still remain standing. It’s important to choose wisely, regardless of what the odds suggest.

NFL Survivor Pool: Teams to pick

1. Washington Commanders

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Location: Northwest Stadium
Weather: 73°F — clear
Spread: -3.5

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has dazzled under the guidance of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsburg. The Heisman Trophy winner became the first quarterback in NFL history to have two consecutive games of at least 85 percent or higher completion percentage (minimum 15 attempts in each game), according to Elias Sports Bureau.

The Commanders are averaging the most EPA per play on offense this season. Although their defense hasn’t been great, the Cleveland Browns offense has been even worse. 

The Browns are in a state of turmoil with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The team has been riddled with offensive line injuries. Watson has taken a whopping 19 sacks through four games, most in the NFL. After losing to the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland will be able to come away with a win against the Commanders.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup: New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Location: Lumen Field
Weather: 63°F — clear
Spread: -6

The Seattle Seahawks are being selected in 35.1 percent of picks on Yahoo Fantasy, making them the overwhelming favorite pick in survivor pools for Week 5. That may scare some people away, but it’s easy to see why they’re the preferred option.

Seattle suffered a close loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 4, but the game shouldn’t serve as an indictment on Seattle. The Seahawks and Lions have produced some classic offensive battles for several years in a row now, and the game only solidified that Seattle is a legitimate playoff contender this season.

The Seahawks are ranked ninth in scoring with a full arsenal of offensive weapons. Running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are proving to be a formidable tandem to go along with wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The New York Giants, on the other hand, have few bright spots. The Giants are the third-worst scoring team in the league, and they have few solutions outside of peppering wide receiver Malik Nabers with targets. With New York traveling across the country to one of the loudest stadiums in the league, it’s hard to see how they can find enough production on either side of the ball to beat the Seahawks.

3. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Location: Levi’s Stadium
Weather: 86°F — clear
Spread: -7.5

The San Francisco 49ers are the heaviest favorite to win this week, despite playing a divisional opponent in the NFC West. Many survivor pools already picked them to advance against the New England Patriots in Week 3, and some may be hoping to save them for future weeks, but this could be a safe opportunity to survive to Week 6.

It’s hard to imagine that the Arizona Cardinals will be able to slow down the San Francisco 49ers, especially after they allowed 42 points and 449 total yards to the Washington Commanders in Week 4. Even without star running back Christian McCaffrey, the Niners should be able to get by the reeling Cardinals with relative ease.

NFL Survivor Pool: Teams to avoid

1. Chicago Bears

Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Location: Soldier Field
Weather: 70°F — chance of rain
Spread: -4

Through the first couple of weeks of the season, advancing in survivor pools was as simple as picking against the Carolina Panthers. That was before the team decided to bench struggling second-year quarterback Bryce Young and replace him with veteran Andy Dalton. 

Although the quarterback change hasn’t made the Panthers a dominant force, they certainly don’t look like the worst team in NFL history anymore. With Andy Dalton, the Panthers could prove to be unpredictable.

The Bears have played well, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but their offensive line still has questions and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is still entirely capable of throwing the game away with costly turnovers. It may be wise to wait until Williams can get his feet underneath him and develop a better rapport with veteran wideout Keenan Allen. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
Weather: 68°F — clear
Spread: -5.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated, but they haven’t looked like it. Tight end Travis Kelce no longer looks capable of carrying the entire offense. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been playing with sloppy mechanics and poor fundamentals. Isiah Pacheco is expected to miss six to eight weeks with a fibula injury, and Kareem Hunt is still somewhat of an unknown variable. After losing wide receiver Rashee Rice to a devastating knee injury, the Chiefs have more questions than answers right now. 

The New Orleans Saints have been inconsistent, but they still have the ability to shut down opposing offenses and go on a touchdown-scoring hot streak. It wouldn’t be entirely surprising if the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season this week.

The Chiefs typically get better as the season wears on, and there will be better opportunities to select the reigning Super Bowl champions. For now, it’s best to save them and wait until they hit their stride.