Best and worst moves of the 2024 NBA offseason: Southwest Division

The 2024 NBA Offseason has been nothing if not eventful, and the Southwest Division was a significant contributor to that description. The Dallas Mavericks revamped their supporting cast after a Finals run and stole away a legend from another franchise. Their Texas brethren, the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs, both picked in the top five of the NBA Draft to add to their enviable stables of young players.  

The New Orleans Pelicans made a blockbuster trade and are still the subject of trade speculation involving another star player, while the Memphis Grizzlies drafted a two-time National Player of the Year.

There were plenty of headlines to go around involving these teams this summer. As the dust settles, it’s time to break down the best and worst decisions made for each of them.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks, fresh off a surprising NBA Finals run, made a flurry of moves this summer to create room on their payroll to rework their roster. Gone are Derrick Jones Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., and Josh Green, while coming in are Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Naji Marshall. With their superstar ball handlers, versatile frontcourt, and new supplemental pieces in tow, they’re looking to make another deep playoff run to capture an NBA title.

Best Move: Sign Naji Marshall for 3 years, $27 million

Of all the names added to the Mavs this summer, Naji Marshall’s might be the least well-known. Even with that said, we’re going with his addition as the best of the bunch for the team.

Marshall has been buried on a Pelicans team deep at the wing spot for multiple seasons but has always found a way to get on the court, thanks both to injuries to other Pels and to his rock-solid play. With the departure of Derrick Jones Jr., the primary wing defender role became an important one for the Mavs to fill, and they were able to do so on a budget. For just $9 million per year on average, they were able to find a hard-nosed, defensive-minded gem who is yet to even hit his prime as a player, coming into his fifth season.

With the Pelicans last season, his team scored a net differential of plus-8.1 with him on the court, ranking in the 89th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. Additionally, he was 78th, 89th, and 80th percentiles in on/off differential for defensive points per possession, defensive effective field goal percentage, and defensive turnover percentage, respectively. If you watched their playoff series against the Thunder, you also saw him do an effective job guarding last year’s MVP runner-up, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Marshall is also a plus rebounder on the wing while logging lots of steals with a penchant for drawing fouls. He leaves a bit to be desired as a shooter but shot a career-high 38.7 percent from 3 last season on middling volume, similar to that of Derrick Jones Jr. With all the open looks he’s going to get in Dallas, he’ll have every chance to prove whether that shooting is real and can be scaled up.

At a salary less than the full mid-level exception, snagging a guy who could very well end up closing games for the Mavs could turn out to be a steal.

Worst Move: Klay Thompson trade

This is a tough choice, as there really isn’t much to dislike from the Mavericks’ offseason. With Jones Jr.’s imminent departure, they recovered quite nicely by scooping up Marshall. They got off the contract of Hardaway Jr. at a great price, opening up the space to make these moves possible. They also got positive value for Josh Green, who has not developed the way they hoped he would as of yet. Of all the solid moves that were made, we’re going with the Klay Thompson acquisition as the one with the most relative downside risk.

Thompson was acquired in a sign-and-trade deal, which came with a three-year, $50 million contract. Anyone who watched the Finals and saw the Mavs miss 3-pointer after 3-pointer knows that Thompson if nothing else, should be able to knock down open shots. To be clear, we’re not pegging this as a bad move.

The challenge is that at almost 35 years old and after multiple severe injuries, Thompson is having trouble being an additive piece in many other facets of the game. He has never been a plus rebounder, which becomes a tougher fit the more he transitions to guarding bigger players. Also, the reason he is starting to guard bigger players is that his lateral quickness on defense is not what it used to be, making it difficult to play him out in space on defense. The Warriors allowed plus-4.8 points per 100 possessions more with Thompson on the court than on the bench last season, per Cleaning the Glass.

If Thompson can maintain his shooting proficiency while being at least mediocre on defense, then his $16 million average annual salary will remain a reasonable number. But his contract is fully guaranteed, and he is obviously on the decline, so there is a possible reality where it becomes a contract that is more hindrance than helpful.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets, after hiring new Head Coach Ime Udoka and bringing in steady veterans in Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks last summer, turned things around in a big way, jumping from 22 wins in 2022-23 to 41 in 2023-24. This was the biggest increase from year to year in the league last season. Now, this squad that is teeming with young talent has a taste for competitive basketball and winning games. In addition to all that, they benefitted from lottery fortune in landing the No. 3 pick in the draft, thanks to their ownership of the rights to the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick. With the future of the team looking up, might the Rockets be on the verge of … blasting off?

Best Move: Draft Reed Sheppard at No. 3

Reed Sheppard is one of only two new additions to the Rockets this summer and is by far the most important. Most agree that the 2024 NBA Draft was difficult to get a read on, as no prospects really separated themselves as likely stars in the future. Sheppard was a prospect who, while imperfect, showed that he could do one thing better than anyone in the draft: shoot the ball. The kid’s 3-point shooting was absolutely nuts in his freshman year at Kentucky.

3-point shooting, particularly off the dribble, is a game-changing offensive weapon. It warps the defense like few other skills and can open up many other opportunities as well. If Sheppard can translate this ability to the pros, he’s going to be a problem for opposing defenses. Though he lacks size, he also showed great defensive activity off the ball in college, with an impressive 4.5 percent steal rate, giving hope that he can provide some value there.

In a draft model consensus of 12 prominent prospect ranking models compiled by Jesse Fischer, Sheppard was the consensus No. 2 prospect, highlighting the widespread optimism. Picking him up at No. 3, even with the plentiful young talent on the roster, is a big win for the Rockets.

Worst Move: AJ Griffin trade

The Rockets have really not changed their roster this offseason, bringing back all of their rotation players from last year. Of the moves they did make, the only one that looks a bit questionable at this point is the acquisition of AJ Griffin.

The move itself was not egregious, particularly at the time. They acquired a recent first-round pick with good size and shooting ability for just a second-round pick (Pelle Larson). So, what’s the rub? Well, it looks like they may have traded an asset for a player that will never play for the team. In a shocking turn of events, it has been reported that Griffin is considering leaving the sport.

Presumably, there will be more to come in this story, but as of now, this looks like a move that clearly did not work out.

Memphis Grizzlies

In 2023-24, the Grizz had one of the most disastrous seasons the NBA has seen in recent years. Enduring suspensions and a catastrophic number of injuries, the team deployed 33 different players and 51 different starting lineups throughout the season, which understandably led to performing significantly below expectations. With this in mind, the team did not do much to upset the apple cart this offseason, bringing back 12 players from last season’s roster and banking on improved health to return to form.

Best Move: Draft Zach Edey at No. 9

The one consolation to having a disappointing season can be getting to pick early in the NBA draft. In this case, the Grizzlies ended up in the top ten and drafted the enormous center out of Purdue, Zach Edey. Edey was a two-time National Player of the Year in college and put up over 20 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks per game in that span.

After losing starting center Steven Adams for the year to injury and later trading him to Houston at the deadline, the Grizzlies came into the offseason without a true center on the roster. This was by far the biggest hole for them to fill and they chose to get that done by drafting Edey.

At 7-foot-4 and almost 300 pounds, he sets bone-crunching screens, dominates on the offensive glass, and has a soft touch near the rim. If these traits translate to the pros, he will bring a lot of the skills that Adams brought to the lineup, freeing up ball handlers for driving lanes and creating extra possessions.

There are obvious questions about his mobility and though he comes in as a four-year college player with international experience as well, he will still be an NBA rookie. This will undoubtedly lead to some growing pains. But on a team with established stars and a clear role for him to play, this could be a cost-effective solution for a big need.

Worst Move: Sign Luke Kennard for 1 year, $9.25 million

The Grizzlies seemingly jumped through some hoops to make sure they could pay Luke Kennard, sending out a second-round pick to get off the contract of Ziaire Williams to fit Kennard’s salary below the luxury tax threshold. This, along with the unnecessarily high number for Kennard’s contract, earns the signing the distinction as the worst.

Admittedly, the contract is only for one year, so it's not all bad. Kennard does bring a shooting element that is sorely needed on this roster and can even be a solid pick-and-roll ball handler in a pinch. On the other hand, he is hard to fit in a lineup defensively and has been injury-prone, missing an average of 23 games per season in his seven-year career.

With a clear line in the sand at the luxury tax threshold, the challenge here is more about opportunity cost. Who else might have been available around this number for the mid-level exception? Jonas Valanciunas, Derrick Jones Jr., Naji Marshall, and Kyle Anderson were all signed for roughly this amount and there were a few guys who were had for the minimum who could have provided value as well.

There is obviously no guarantee that any better options were interested in signing with Memphis, but this signing not getting done until the end of July also suggests there may not have been a robust market for Kennard that they were competing with either, further supporting the idea that it may have been an overpay, at least.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans had a disappointing end to their season in 2023-24, with their star Zion Williamson getting injured in the Play-In Tournament resulting in a quiet dismissal from the first round by the Thunder. They made a big splash by acquiring Dejounte Murray from the Hawks in a low-cost talent upgrade, but still have a hole at center and lingering questions about the future of Brandon Ingram, making the roster feel somewhat incomplete. Here’s hoping a refreshed Zion can help overcome their perceived flaws and lead them back to the playoffs.

Best Move: Dejounte Murray trade

The Pels have been operating with CJ McCollum as their de facto point guard for the last few seasons but decided to change it up by acquiring a bit of a distressed asset in Dejounte Murray. They traded away Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, EJ Lidell, Cody Zeller, and two first-round picks to net the one-time All-Star.

This was a modest price to pay for the talent that Murray brings. Though he is not of the quintessential floor general archetype, he has improved his playmaking and shooting throughout his career. He is also a fantastic defensive rebounder at the guard position, which is something that is going to be sorely needed with their lack of size in the front court.

There are still some questions about his fit with Ingram and McCollum, but Murray is locked up on a long-term, affordable contract and was available at such a reasonable price that this deal has to be considered a win.

Worst Move: Lack of a Brandon Ingram resolution

Normally, the lack of a move is not something that would be considered for an evaluation like this. In this instance, though, the Brandon Ingram situation looms so largely over the team both on and off the court that we’re going to break this rule.

Ingram has been lobbying for a contract extension for quite a while now, with a seemingly unrealistic view of his market value. A deal has not been made, so his name has also been swirling in trade rumors for months. A trade has yet to materialize on that front as well, leaving the team in an awkward position.

Not only do they seem to have an unsatisfied star player on the roster, but his skills also look like they will be an awkward fit with Murray, McCollum, and Williamson, who all function best with the ball in their hands.

To top it all off, they have a gaping hole at the center position that an Ingram trade could help solve. As of now, they’ll be trotting out Daniel Theis, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Yves Missi in that spot. With all due respect to them as players, that rotation is not inspiring much confidence.

He could come into the season and ball out, turning this all into a big “nothing” burger. But he was also conspicuously absent from voluntary workouts with the team, leading to questions about whether this could turn into a bigger concern.

San Antonio Spurs

After watching Victor Wembanyama exceed even the highest of expectations on his way to a unanimous Rookie of the Year award, the Spurs are continuing to pursue roster-building avenues to maximize the future of this generational prospect. They came into the draft with two top ten picks, traded one away, and added veteran depth to start the year with a more cohesive and consistent rotation. Their highest priority is still on the long-term future, but with a player like Wembanyama taking the floor every night, there’s no telling when they might take an unexpected leap.

Best Move: Harrison Barnes trade

This was a tough decision here, as the Spurs made multiple moves this offseason that look like shrewd ones. They took a big gamble trading the No. 8 pick to Minnesota for multiple draft assets, banking on them declining by the end of the decade and giving them juicy long-term pieces. Conversely, they brought in the Point God, Chris Paul on a one-year deal to help organize the team in the short term and hopefully have good habits rub off on their young players.

The pick we’re going with is the one that blends both the present and the future as priorities in a move that demonstrates what patience can provide when it comes to rebuilding teams using cap space. Later in the free agency period, the Kings decided that DeMar DeRozan was their free agent of choice, but did not have the cap space to get a deal done. Enter the Spurs, who took on the salary of Harrison Barnes and an unprotected 2031 pick swap to allow the Kings to fit DeRozan in.

Harrison Barnes is a stretch-4 who is an efficient shooter, solid defender, and consummate professional. He will provide a stable presence in the front court next to Wembanyama and capitalize on the attention that Paul-Wembanyama pick-and-rolls will generate. Additionally, an unprotected pick swap from the Kings in 2031 has a good chance to yield a lucrative return, as Wembanyama will be running roughshod over the league by then and this iteration of the Kings has a good chance of being far from contention.

This was a low-risk gamble with potential to pay huge dividends at only the cost of a modest amount of cap space that the team was unlikely to find a better use for, making it a big win.

Worst Move: Draft Stephon Castle at No. 4

Yes, Stephon Castle is coming off an impressive NCAA championship run. And yes, he has yet to play in an NBA game. Nevertheless, with the currently available information, this was a bit of a puzzling pick for the Spurs at No. 4, particularly with his lack of shooting prowess.

Castle has impressed with his defensive intensity, feel for the game, and all-around energy. The challenge is the same as it is for many perimeter players without a proven jump shot, what is his ideal role? While a dogged defender, he may not have quite enough size or athleticism to defend bigger positions than point guards and shooting guards. While he shows a solid feel, he has not shown outlier ball handling or playmaking ability, perhaps making a transition to lead ball handler difficult. The lack of shooting ability makes him tough to fit in as an off-ball threat as well.

Being a jack-of-most-trades, master of none, he serves as an intriguing ball of clay to be molded. The Spurs clearly believe they can turn him into a passable shooter, and perhaps some time with Chris Paul will help him develop into a lead ball handler in the future. This just feels like a tough gamble to take with a top-five draft pick.