Big 12 Football preview 2024: Predicted winner, hot seat watch, Heisman chances

The Big 12 is proving irrefutably that there is strength in numbers. Despite being at 10 schools for a while in the wake of four of its schools leaving for other conferences in 2012, the Big 12 has embodied a never-say-die attitude in the decade-plus since. It added four former Group of Five powers last year, and then gained the four Four Corners universities with the death of the Pac-12.

Yes, the league may have also lost Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, but the Big 12 is in far better shape than the ACC. The Big 12 currently occupies a space between the Power Two of the Big Ten and SEC, but firmly ahead of the ACC and its utterly atrocious TV contract with ESPN. As for the Big 12, there is a power void at the top of the conference, meaning anyone could win the league in 2024.

Well, maybe that is not entirely true. Houston winning the league is about as likely as Kansas State is coming in last, as in that is not happening. So what we are going to do today is to unpack a serious of superlatives regarding the Big 12 as part of FanSided's college football preview. I have unpacked the SEC and the Big Ten already, as well as talked about all three leagues over on False Start this month.

Let's start with the most important question of them all: Who is getting to Arlington out of the Big 12?

Playoffs? You Kiddin' Me?!: Who will play for the Big 12 Championship?

My boss, FanSided.com colleague and False Start co-host Cody Williams and I disagreed a ton while unpacking the Big 12. We did agree on one team getting to Arlington. That would be the Kansas State Wildcats. While he has them beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys, I have K-State falling to the Utah Utes for the AQ spot in the Big 12. These were the only three teams I seriously considered winning it.

While Williams is not high on Utah at all this year, I tend to agree that Ollie Gordon and Avery Johnson are special players. What it came down for me was the end-all, be-all of everything, which is quarterback play. Alan Bowman cannot hold a candle to what I think Johnson is capable of, or the experience and what I know Cam Rising is capable of. I could be wrong, but I'm all in on Black Smoke.

To be fair, I have all three of these teams winning 10 or more games. I have Utah going undefeated, Kansas State's lone loss in conference play to West Virginia and Oklahoma State's two losses to the Utes and the Wildcats. Oklahoma State returns so much talent, but I am eagerly waiting for the Gator's hunting rabbits game to happen for Mike Gundy. Think of what happened last year vs. UCF...

Even in a conference with no definitive juggernaut, a few are starting to present themselves already.

It's Gettin' Hot in Herre!: Big 12 head coaches on hot seat entering 2024

As expected, Cody Williams and I disagreed on who is sitting on the hottest seat in the Big 12. While he went with Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda, I settled on Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders. It essentially came down to neither of us thinking our top pick for this was getting to a bowl game. Although I had Colorado one win better than they were a year ago, this is still a 5-7 team.

The other head coach we both believed could be feeling some heat was Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield. For Cincinnati to go from making the College Football Playoff as a Group of Five team in 2021 to being essentially the same crap it was under Tommy Tuberville does not sit well with us. The only real holdup is that it will only be year two for Satterfield at the helm of the program.

Williams mentioned Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham as a possible hot seat candidate, just because the Sun Devils may be a flaming dumpster fire. I rattled off three more that need to have good seasons to keep their jobs. That would be TCU head coach Sonny Dykes, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake and Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire. A sub-.500 season out of them could be trouble.

For the most part, the Big 12 is in a great spot with its head coaches, but there are a few exceptions.

LIVE! From Eric Crouch's Couch: Best Heisman contender in the Big 12

This was the part of the show where Cody Williams and I disagreed the most. It just goes to show how wide-open the Big 12 truly is entering this season. My top pick to get to New York out of this conference is Utah quarterback Cam "Black Smoke" Rising, while Williams was all about Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II. I had Gordon third on my list, while Williams did not mention Rising.

Our second picks were a pair of interesting, mobile quarterbacks in Kansas State's Avery Johnson and Kansas' Jalon Daniels. While Williams mentioned Johnson later, I did not have Daniels listed out of injury concerns. Gordon, Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita and Kansas running Devin Neal rounded out my top five. Williams' were Johnson, Colorado cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter and Fifita.

We each had an interesting sleeper pick, both being quarterbacks. I went with Garrett Greene out of West Virginia, while Williams had Rocco Becht out of Iowa State. These are two teams we could see doing great things in the Big 12 this year. Winning the conference may be a bit of a reach, but they could play a part in deciding who is. Overall, the Big 12 Heisman Trophy contender race is wide open.

There are roughly 10 players in this league who have realistic chances of getting to New York City.

I'm Trying, Jennifer...: Most likely team to go winless in Big 12 play

This just shows how closely stacked together the league is top-to-bottom. Per my win projections, I don't actually have a team in the Big 12 going winless in conference play. However, I do have one team going 1-8, as well as five going 2-7. The 1-8 team is the Houston Cougars, who I have going 2-10 overall with wins over TCU and Rice this year. I have a bad feeling Willie Fritz will regret leaving Tulane.

This is because Dana Holgorsen did not leave him with a lot to work with at U of H. Yes, in time, I suspect that Houston could emerge as one of the best programs in the new Big 12, strictly because of their big-pocketed boosters such as Tilman Fertitta. However, the Cougars are going to continue experience a great period of adjustment for at least this year. Maybe 2025 will be different for them?

Other candidates to possibly go winless in Big 12 play are Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado and TCU. Not to say any of them will be justifiable, but I cannot really blame Kenny Dillingham for the Sun Devils being terrible. However, I did mention the head coaches of the other four schools as being on the hot seat. It would be terrible for Sanders, but a whole lot worse for Dykes.

While I don't think a team is going winless in the Big 12 this year, the smart money is on Houston.

The Paul Finch Satin Kimono: Biggest pretender in the Big 12

Not going to lie, this was not a fun exercise to do. Usually, when Cody Williams and I hand out The Paul Finch Satin Kimono, it is more tongue-in-cheek than it is mean-spirited. However, I do wonder what could happen to Kalani Sitake of BYU were to go 4-8 this season like I am forecasting. The Cougars really wanted to join a Power Five conference, but the transitional period is proving a bit challenging.

Williams went with UCF for similar reasons. While I have the Knights going 6-6, maybe we are overselling the program Gus Malzahn is overlooking? All signs point to him potentially being a replacement for Sam Pittman in his native Arkansas should he fail. Then again, how big of an upgrade would that be? As stated before, I am way down on Houston, while Williams isn't buying the Utah hype.

The big difference for us is while Williams still has Utah as a playoff contender, I have Houston finishing in dead last in the league. Again, what this all really comes back to is the Big 12 should be such a fun conference to cover and follow along with because it is so tightly packed. No, Houston isn't winning the league, and no, Kansas State isn't going 0-for, but anything else may conceivably happen.

All I know is a satin kimono would probably be the talk of the town across Provo. That is for certain.

Definitely, Maybe Might Be Good: Most underrated team in the Big 12

Given the nature of this league, your guess for the Definitely, Maybe is as good as mine. I am pretty high on Neal Brown's West Virginia Mountaineers entering this season. I think they will finish the year ranked inside the top 25 with at least eight wins. They are going to upset somebody. Right now, that team is Kansas State, another team I feel definitely, maybe, might be good. The league is a crapshoot.

As for Cody Williams, he is all-in on Rocco Becht (Hey, Rocco!) and the Iowa State Cyclones. Believe me, I wanted to be all-in on them as well, but Matt Campbell's program does not have the easiest schedule. I have them going 7-5, while I have WVU going a win better at 8-4. For whatever reason, I also suspect that either Baylor or UCF will surprise in some capacities this year beyond going 6-6.

As it is with everything in the Big 12, so much could go either way. I feel strongly that the top-half of the league could be as good as what the Big Ten has to offer, and definitely as good, if not better than what the ACC could ever hope to provide this year. My biggest holdup with the Big 12 is I have a had feeling that the bottom of the conference is going to be absolute dreck, which will bring them down.

In the meantime, I would suggest buying more stock in Big 12 teams like West Virginia and Iowa State.

Du Hast or Du Hasst?: Will the Big 12 get multiple teams into the playoff?

This is a very interesting question. Although it may have unintentionally be presented differently on the Big 12 preview episode of False Start, I am going to agree and go Du Hast with one S by saying the Big 12 will get multiple teams into the College Football Playoff. I still have the right to change my opinion on this, but I have Utah getting the AQ spot with Kansas State getting in as an at-large team.

Cody Williams does not have the Big 12 getting multiple teams in, but does agree with me that the Big 12 is far more likely to do it than his conference in the ACC. What I go back to is how strongly we both feel about Kansas State. Like, that is an 11-win team, bruh. We may both have K-State and the Oklahoma State Cowboys properly slotted, but Williams is way down on Utah heading into this year.

I think what it comes down to is, once again, there is not a ton of separation at the top of this conference. Outside of last year, the Big 12 would have gotten in two teams in the expanded format in 2020 (Oklahoma, Iowa State), 2021 (Baylor, Oklahoma State) and 2022 (Kansas State, TCU). Again, I still need to figure out how the ACC could shake out, because I have no earthly idea at this point, y'all.

All I know is if the Big 12 wants to really make it a Power Three, it needs to get multiple teams in stat.

Pat the Doc: How will conference realignment impact the Big 12 in 2024?

Outside of the Pac-12 literally dying, no Power Four/Five conference will be impacted more by conference realignment than the Big 12 in 2024. The good news is the moves made by Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC have created a power void at the top of the league. My guess is that some combination of Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Utah will take advantage of this huge opportunity.

The bad news is the Big 12 no longer has a traditional power in its conference after the Oklahoma and Texas departures. I could see a way where the Big 12 becomes the new Pac-12 where they are only getting one team into a New Year's Six bowl annually, for lack of a better phrase. The worst news about realignment for the Big 12 is some of the newer entrants of late may be total sad bags of crap.

While I like Utah and Arizona's chances of being competitive this fall despite moving over from the Pac-12, when are any of the Group of Five newcomers from last year really going to make their mark? None of them have separated, although Cincinnati looks to be in the worst shape. Entering year two, I would say UCF is in the lead among those four schools, but neither will be sniffing double-digit wins.

Conference realignment has at best created intrigue in the Big 12; at worst, it has created confusion.