The Whiteboard: Big questions for the Heat, Suns, Bucks and Luka Doncic

How do the Miami Heat keep turning every player on their roster into Steph Curry in the playoffs? Genius coaching? Heat culture? HGH? Magic?

Kyle Delaney: Forget Butler, Adebayo, or Herro — Erik Spoelstra is that team's MVP. It's all in preparation, and that man keeps his team ready for anything. In fact, LeBron James and JJ Reddick talked about Spoelstra recently on their Mind The Game podcast. Reddick was explaining how sometimes his former coach Stan Van Gundy would have them practice an ATO the other team hasn't run in five games, just to be prepared for it. LeBron James agreed, saying, "Spo was the same way." He also said of Spoelstra, "When you come from that Pat Riley tree, you prepare every day as if it's your last." At the end of the day, Spo has delivered for the Miami Heat season after season.

Nevin Brown: No one likes hearing this, but the Miami Heat have just been lucky. 3-point shooting variance is unpredictable and reading too much into it is how you end up with things like Heat culture paragraphs on basketball courts. 56 times during the 2023-24 regular season a team exceeded or equaled the Heat’s 53.5 percent 3-point shooting in Game 2 against the Celtics. The top five team 3-point shooting nights in order were: the Chicago Bulls (64.5 percent), Cleveland Cavaliers (63.6 percent), Los Angeles Lakers (63.4 percent), Washington Wizards (63 percent), and Memphis Grizzlies (62.9 percent). Black Swan events happen, and sometimes they happen to the same people. It’s why we have multiple-time lottery winners and people who have been struck by lightning twice.

Ian Levy: I'm honestly at a loss. Intellectually I recognize the arguments of Kyle and Nevin — strategy, preparation and random variance. But the world is a lot more fun if you believe in magic, so I'm going supernatural. I choose to believe that the Heat's 3-point shooting is the ongoing reward from Tyler Herro beating the Devil in a 3-point shooting contest. It was pretty close until the last two racks when Herro caught fire and couldn't miss. As the last moneyball dropped through the net he turned to the Devil and said, "Devil, come on back if you ever wanna try again. I done told you once, you son of a gun, I'm the best there's ever been."

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Whose championship reset this season is looking more absurdly naive — the Phoenix Suns or Milwaukee Bucks?

Kyle Delaney: I'd have to say the Phoenix Suns since their trio of Booker, Durant, and Beal has been so underwhelming this year. During this regular season, the Suns had a net rating of minus-11.6 in the fourth quarter, the lowest in the league. This doesn't scream championship to me. They're also up against Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, which is no easy task. Sorry, Phoenix.

Nevin Brown: The Phoenix Suns championship reset is looking more naive today because it looked far more naive in the moment. You know what a team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker doesn’t need? Bradley Beal on a $46.7 million contract that has a $57.1 million player option in 2026-27 with a full no-trade clause. Building a team around three players with the same offensive skillset and absolutely no depth was just as dumb in the summer of 2023 as it is in the spring of 2024. The Bucks' move for Damian Lillard made sense. They needed more offensive firepower and he was coming off maybe his best season. He averaged 32.2 points per game, made an All-NBA team in only 58 games played, and was a top-five offensive player in 2022-23. The Suns added an injury-prone player on a terrible contract who is maybe the 30th-best player in the NBA.

Ian Levy: I was wrong about both of these teams (I'm wrong about everything) so there is no moral high ground here for me. The Suns' mistakes were many — trading for Bradley Beal, thinking Jusuf Nurkic would be a meaningful enough defensive upgrade over Deandre Ayton, not squeezing another useful player out of that deal besides Grayson Allen (all due respect to Nassir Little), not squeezing another useful player out of the Bradley Beal trade. These are errors of overconfidence and player evaluation and they all compounded each other. The Bucks' mistakes were hiring Adrian Griffin which seemed more defensible at the time and then replacing him with Doc Rivers. Both teams are in big trouble but the true fool here is me for believing in either of them.

Luka Donic, defensive stopper — Buying? Selling? Shaking with silent laughter as tears roll down your cheeks?

Kyle Delaney: For the first time ever, I'm seeing an engaged Luka on the defensive side of the ball. Before you start throwing tomatoes, with Luka as the primary defender, the Clippers shot 2-17 from the field in Game 2. He's sliding his feet, getting a hand up to contest, and doing so against future HoF'ers in Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden. I'm buying, re-financing, and buying again.

Nevin Brown: Is Luka Doncic a defensive stopper all of a sudden? To quote the wise Randy Jackson of American Idol fame, “That’s gonna be a no from me, dawg.” However, Luka has never been as bad a defender as he has been made out to be. He has good size, strength, and anticipation, but in the regular season, when he’s carrying a 35 percent usage, he simply doesn’t expend the energy necessary to use those traits on the defensive end. The Clippers also made the mistake of not exploiting his primary defensive weakness– speed, and it allowed Luka to have one of the best defensive games of his career. Unfortunately, the Clippers don’t have the personnel to really attack this weakness. This could end up as a series where Luka’s defense shines, but I’m not buying he’s a defensive stopper, because we have 429 other games suggesting he isn’t.

Ian Levy: I'm old enough to remember when defense wasn't about wingspan and lateral mobility and iced picks and rolls. It was about wanting it more. Skinned knees and sharp elbows. Leaving it all out on the floor and refusing to quit. No easy baskets and no possessions off. Luka Doncic is big and strong and seems to have a fathomless well of grievance and frustration to call upon. Why couldn't he direct all of that energy at Kawhi Leonard instead of throwing his hands up at every Scott Foster call or side-eying P.J. Washington as he bricks another corner 3?

Recommended Reading:

1. Suns are missing something: "The offense lacks creativity and harmony. Including the first two playoff games, Durant and Booker have played through a total of 19 picks, according to Second Spectrum. Beal and Booker have set 33 for each other. Beal and Durant have set 99. For comparison, Chicago’s Coby White and Nikola Vucevic led the league with 1,324 screens." Four Rounds: Suns in trouble, appreciating the Nuggets, Pascal Siakam and more

2. Lakers get special treatment but not this kind: "The Lakers’ secret is they’re the only team in the league that is elite at both generating and avoiding free throws. While that could be a point in favor of a conspiracy, the big-market media-darling Utah Jazz led the league in per-100 possession free throw attempt difference in 2021-22. The reality is generating free-throw attempts is within control of the team, and the Lakers have decided to make that their advantage de jour." No, the Lakers historic free throw margin isn't because the refs are on their side

3. Dynasty time: "In other words, the Finals this June will likely bring one of two outcomes. Either the defending champion Nuggets, with a 2-0 first-round lead and growing aura of inevitability, will repeat as champions and assert their undeniable claim as the defining team of the decade—or the NBA will enter nearly unprecedented territory, without a central power around which the league’s competitive landscape revolves." Will the NBA’s Next Defining Team Emerge in These Playoffs?