No, the Lakers historic free throw margin isn't because the refs are on their side

The Los Angeles Lakers’ massive free throw attempt edge is well-documented. This season, per 100 possessions, the Lakers enjoyed a plus-6.1 free throw attempt advantage against their competition. The next largest per 100 possession free throw attempt bonus were the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat at plus-2.9. While that built-in lead at the line only led to a plus-0.6 net rating, it has followed the Lakers into the NBA Playoffs. 

In two playoff games against the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers have enjoyed a plus-4.8 per 100 possessions free throw attempt edge. While not as robust as their regular season exploits, it continues a trend that has frustrated opposing fanbases. Due to the Lakers’ intense media coverage, their free throw advantage has drawn the ire of opponent fanbases, with some going as far as to claim the league is directing referees to give the Lakers a favorable whistle. However, before you spiral down the NBA conspiracy rabbit hole, you might want to take a look at the facts.  

How the Lakers win at the free throw line

If something were truly amiss about the Lakers’ free throw advantage, it would show up in the data. The Lakers are the only team in the league to be in the top five in both free throw attempt rate and opponent free throw attempt rate, but they’re not doing anything out of the ordinary on either end. 

The Lakers’ secret is they’re the only team in the league that is elite at both generating and avoiding free throws. While that could be a point in favor of a conspiracy, the big-market media-darling Utah Jazz led the league in per-100 possession free throw attempt difference in 2021-22. The reality is generating free-throw attempts is within control of the team, and the Lakers have decided to make that their advantage de jour. 

As with anything in basketball, there are tradeoffs to be made when committing to a certain style. The Warriors' free-flowing offense was routinely near the bottom of the league in turnover rate, but it was a trade-off they were willing to make to improve their shot quality and shot-making. And the Lakers’ massive free throw advantage is no different. 

The Lakers win the shot geography battle

On offense, one of the best ways to jack up your free throw attempts is to avoid 3s. The chances of getting fouled on any given 3-point attempt are infinitesimal compared to the chances you get fouled on a shot within the arc. Unsurprisingly, the Lakers ranked 28th in 3-point attempt rate, which means they ranked third in 2-point attempt rate. 

Getting closer to the basket, a team’s percentage of field goal attempts that are dunks is also a good indicator for free throw generation. The Lakers ranked first in the percentage of their field goals that were dunks by a significant margin. Their 8.1 percent figure was 36 percent better than the league average, and it was over 10 percent better than the Minnesota Timberwolves in second and 15 percent better than the Orlando Magic in third. Referencing the earlier graphic, the Magic finished first in free throw attempt rate and the Timberwolves finished fourth. 

With the free throw advantages of shooting near the rim, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Anthony Davis led the Lakers in free throw attempt rate among players to play over 1,000 minutes because 16.2 percent of his shots were dunk attempts, and he took 67.8 percent of his shots 10 feet or closer to the basket. However, despite living around the basket, he only ranked 22nd in the league among qualified players in free throw attempt rate.

How Austin Reaves baits his way to the line

Another important component to remember is that free throw generation is a skill and not solely based on shot geography. For instance, DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, Damian Lillard, and Devin Booker all finished in the top 10 in free throw attempts per game, but the quartet managed 81 dunks across 4,730 field goal attempts. LeBron James, who finished second on the Lakers in free throw attempt rate among players to play 1,000 minutes, straddles the line between skill and shot geography, but Austin Reaves, who was third on the Lakers, is your classic perimeter free throw merchant. 

Reaves’ FTAr of .289 was 18 percent better than the league average, but he dunked it less than two percent of the time and primarily lived beyond 10 feet. However, if you watch Reaves for a single game, you’ll see how he generates free throws by capitalizing on defensive mistakes. 

Reaves is excellent at going up to shoot when he feels a defender to get cheap fouls. In most instances, the defender is on his hip or a step behind and his off-balance shot will get a whistle. The tactic is used throughout the NBA, and as you saw, it doesn’t always lead to a foul call. However, when Reaves has a clean lane to the basket and no defender to bait, he’ll shoot to avoid the contest. 

The Darvin Ham effect

The Lakers’ ability to generate free throws on offense is only a part of their massive free-throw advantage. They’re elite at avoiding fouls on defense, and the culprit is almost assuredly their head coach — Darvin Ham. 

For as much as Darvin Ham has been maligned, his defensive fingerprints are all over this Lakers’ roster, and it starts with their ability to avoid fouling. Ham spent his formative coaching years working under head coach Mike Budenholzer. From 2013-14 to 2021-22, Ham was an assistant for Budenholzer in Atlanta and Milwaukee. 

One of Budenholzer’s core coaching tenets is to avoid fouling on defense. Regardless of how good his team’s overall defense was, he would always make sure they were one of the most disciplined defenses. 

In nine consecutive seasons, across two franchises and a 24-win season in 2017-18, Budenholzer and Ham coaxed a top-10 finish in defensive free throw to field goal attempt rate. In many respects, fouling on defense is a choice, and Budenholzer chose not to foul. The trade-off was either a low turnover rate or a poor defensive rebounding rate. With the Hawks, they finished in the top ten in turnover percentage, but no higher than 17th in defensive rebound rate, while with the Bucks, they finished 24th or worse in turnover percentage, but were top three in defensive rebound rate. 

Since taking over the Lakers, Ham has tried to install a similar defensive identity. In 2021-22, the season before Ham took over, the Lakers defense was a mess. They finished 21st in defensive rating (113.3), 14th in FT/FGA (.192), 22nd in defensive rebound rate (75.8 percent), and 14th in turnover rate (12.2 percent). Once Ham took over the Lakers’ defense improved considerably. They finished 11th in defensive rating (113.9), first in FT/FGA (.171), 13th in defensive rebound rate (76.3 percent), and 29th in turnover rate (10.9 percent). 

While Ham wasn’t able to garner the rebounding advantage the Bucks had with the Lakers (not having Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez might have something to do with that), he was able to install a risk-averse defense that prioritized not fouling at the cost of turnovers. 

Do the Lakers receive a favorable whistle? Absolutely, but that’s intentional. If you build a defense that deliberately doesn’t foul at the expense of turnovers and have an offense designed to attack the paint by eschewing 3-pointers, then you will win the free throw battle if you have the requisite talent.  

The Lakers’ decision to dominate at the line might not actually be the best strategy for them to win. They were an average team this season by net rating, and bombing more threes around Anthony Davis and LeBron James at the cost of a few trips to the line would have probably helped their offense. Just like trying to generate turnovers at the expense of a few extra fouls might have improved their defense. 

If the refs were actually attempting to will the Lakers to victory, don’t you think they would have won more games and not blown a 20-point lead in a playoff game? The Lakers are simply a mediocre team designed to win the free throw battle.