Big Ten College Football Playoff bubble watch: Could 4 teams get in?

The Big Ten Conference is a powerhouse this season (as it is just about every year) with seven teams in the AP Top 25 poll after Week 5. Only the SEC has more with eight and if all indications are correct, the expanded College Football Playoff will practically be a Big Ten v. SEC postseason tournament - and that actually sounds really fun.

We're not even halfway through the season yet but we're far enough in that there's a clearer picture of who the actual playoff contenders are and those clinging to the bubble. The Big Ten factors heavily into that picture with still many playoff caliber teams having to play each other in the coming weeks. As of now, I have four Big Ten teams in the playoff field but based on early indications, it seems like only three are locks (barring epic collapses).

Projected College Football Playoff field

Heading into Week 6, here are the 12 teams I would have in the expanded College Football Playoff.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) (SEC Champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) (Big Ten Champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) (ACC Champion)
4. BYU (5-0) (Big 12 Champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (5-0) (SEC runner-up)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) (SEC at-large)
7. Oregon Ducks (4-0) (Big Ten runner-up)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) (SEC at-large)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) (Big Ten at-large)
10. Missouri Tigers (4-0) (SEC at-large)
11. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) (Big Ten at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (3-1) (Mountain West Champion/highest-ranked Group of Five champion)

Ohio State and Oregon look like they're on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis to vie for the Big Ten title. But don't forget about Penn State, they would've made the most playoff fields of any FBS team if the 12-team format began in 2014.

The bubble, however, is where things get dicey and interesting for the rest of the Big Ten teams looking to clinch one of the final spots. I've broken it all down and there's a lot of things that have to go right for the conference to see four or more of its members make it.

Big Ten bubble watch

College Football Playoff locks

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)

With the SEC getting most of the national title attention and expectations, the Buckeyes probably have the most complete, under the radar team in the whole country. Quarterback Will Howard has found his rhythm with receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. There's hardly a deficiency on either side of the ball for Ohio State so an undefeated season and a shot at the national title will hinge upon how it handles the second half of the season, which includes battles against the following locks plus two bubble teams.

No. 6 Oregon Ducks (4-0)

Arguably the only true challenger to Ohio State in the conference this year (I hear you whining, Penn State fans, I'll get to you in a moment), the Ducks sit a rung below the Buckeyes in these standings because of some early cracks showing. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a preseason Heisman contender, looked shaky against FCS Idaho and Boise State's relentless pressure. Oregon looks to have righted the ship after a less than convincing start but circle your calendars for Oct. 12 when the first round of the Big Ten championship will seemingly be played in Eugene against the Buckeyes.

No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)

Alright, before the Nittany Lions fans come at me with pitchforks and torches, let the record reflect that I believe Penn State has the most to gain from the aforementioned Oct. 12 heavyweight bout between Ohio State and Oregon. Three weeks later, the Buckeyes visit Happy Valley and regardless of the result in Eugene, as long as Penn State is undefeated entering that game it will clinch a spot in the CFP. A shot at the Big Ten title would just be icing on the cake at that point.

College Football Playoff bubble teams

No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (3-1)

It pains me to say it but Michigan has clawed its way back into the CFP conversation despite an embarrassing beatdown at home to Texas, and introducing former Pac-12 foe USC to Big Ten football with a Week 4 upset at home. However, that being said, the Wolverines are still on thin ice moving forward. A second loss wouldn't be an explicit eliminator but it wouldn't control its own fate as the likely fourth Big Ten team vying for a berth. If it has two losses going into the Ohio State game, chalk that up as a virtual play-in game for Michigan.

No. 11 USC Trojans (3-1)

Despite the disappointing loss to Michigan, the Trojans will be waiting in the wings the rest of the season to try and snatch the potential final Big Ten playoff berth from the Wolverines. That would require USC either running the table (which is entirely possible if it beats Penn State on Oct. 12) or waiting for Michigan to lose two more games before it reaches Ohio State. The Trojans' campaign was never going to be easy but it's certainly conquerable from this point on.

No. 23 Indiana (5-0)

This is where the fun begins. If the Hoosiers had one loss by this juncture, then they would not be in this category. Finding itself undefeated (and on top of the Big Ten standings) going into the second half of the season sets Indiana up perfectly to give the CFP committee something to consider. However, it does have a rather easy schedule compared to the above programs - not facing a ranked opponent until Michigan (Nov. 9) and Ohio State (Nov. 23). That disadvantage could render a single loss enough to keep the Hoosiers from their first-ever CFP appearance.

Fun to Watch, Not CFP Caliber

No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1)

Poor Illinois. If it hadn't lost to Penn State in Week 5 it would probably be a bubble team ahead of Indiana. It really needed that ranked win because it still has bouts with Michigan (Oct. 19) and Oregon (Oct. 26) ahead that, if it loses either, will fully eliminate it from any outside chance of making the playoff. However, that won't stop the Illini from playing spoiler for either of those programs. Illinois has a talented team and if things had broken more in its favor last week, some SEC bubble teams might've started to sweat things out a bit.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0)

I could be totally wrong about Rutgers in the end but right now, despite a strong showing and impressive roster through four games, the Scarlet Knights don't look entirely sustainable to be considered a bubble team. In Week 5, it nearly gave up a 21-10 lead with just minutes to play in the fourth quarter to Washington. A missed game-tying field goal saved Rutgers from being an early name crossed off the list, but it only delayed the inevitable.

Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1)

Our expectations for the Hawkeyes may have been a little too high to start the season. The offense got better, yes but not better enough. It's pretty sad to have what was supposed to be a playoff threatening season ended early by your in-state rivals. Iowa could try to run the table but that would require it to upset Ohio State in Week 6, even that's too Herculean a task for head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1)

I remember when everyone was talking about Nebraska being a playoff team after handily beating Colorado in Week 2. But, after a poor showing against Illinois in Week 4, here we are basically writing them off until next year. To be fair, Nebraska needed to be undefeated going into its Oct. 26 bout with Ohio State because that would've been the only affordable loss if it was to have CFP aspirations and shock the college football world.

Not a College Football Playoff Team in 2024

Michigan State Spartans (3-2)

Now's the time where we break out the Bart Simpson gif of him putting the "You Tried" cake in the trash, because that would apply to every team in this section. Two or more losses at this point in the season means you're out, and in the Spartans' case they needed to beat Ohio State in Week 5 to keep any outside hopes alive.

Washington Huskies (3-2)

It's a little sad to see last year's national championship runner-ups fall so far from the top but that's college football, baby. New squad, new head coach, whole new ballgame. Losing in the first non-Pac-12 edition of the Apple Cup to in-state rival Washington State was the first nail in the coffin. Coming up short to Rutgers in Week 5 sealed it.

Northwestern Wildcats (2-2)

At least the Wildcats can say they had a pretty sick temporary stadium this year. Playing waterfront football feels like something reserved for Martha's Vineyard or the Pac-12 but we all know how playoff relevant both of those things are. Northwestern can take its participation trophy and go home after this year.

Wisconsin Badgers (2-2)

It may seem harsh to have Wisconsin so far down after it nearly pulled an upset over USC in Week 5. But the fact that it couldn't sustain a full 60 minutes against the vulnerable Trojans just shows head coach Luke Fickell's squad is probably a year away from being in one of the higher categories. Even if they pull off a big upset in any of the upcoming weeks, the Badgers wouldn't get any farther than a brief bubble mention and even that would be generous.

Purdue Boilermakers (1-3)

Thanks for playing, Boilermakers. We'll see you next year. There's really not a lot to say about Purdue this season except that its role is simply being an auto-win for the remainder of the year. Some serious decisions will need to be made about the coaching and how it approaches recruiting this offseason.

Maryland Terrapins (3-2)

This season could've gone a whole lot different for the Terrapins to date. Losses to Michigan State and Indiana have anchored it to the conference basement unless it can go on a serious tear the rest of its schedule. Bear in mind dates with USC (Oct. 19), Oregon (Nov. 9) and Penn State (Nov. 30) still remain on said schedule. Perhaps its best to look forward to basketball season in College Park, Maryland.

Minnesota Gophers (2-3)

It's fair to say Minnesota was one bad offside call away from potentially being 3-2 at this point and eliminating Michigan from the playoff bubble altogether. But, here we are and the Gophers will just be looking to play spoiler the rest of the season for teams like USC (Oct. 5), Illinois (Nov. 2) and Penn State (Nov. 23) still remaining on its schedule.

UCLA Bruins (1-3)

The Bruins inaugural campaign in the Big Ten has certainly not gone to plan and can already be written off until next year. UCLA will just be keeping the field at the Rose Bowl warm until it's time to step foot on it for the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. If things go well, a Big Ten team will be on one of the sidelines fighting to advance over a likely SEC foe.

The only certainty in college football is that projections like these are going to change at least one more time before the end of the season. But we'll continue to speculate and enjoy the spectacle on the field for the time being.