Braves latest pitcher promotion comes with a hidden risk

Ever since Spencer Strider went down with his season-ending injury, the Atlanta Braves have been searching for a No. 5 starting pitcher. Bryce Elder, the most logical option, had a 6.46 ERA in five starts and is back in the minors. Darius Vines had a 7.82 ERA in three appearances (two starts) and he's in the minors. Ray Kerr and Allan Winans struggled in their lone starts.

The only pitcher who performed well in that spot, AJ Smith-Shawver, made just one start for Atlanta before landing on the IL.

With the Braves searching for some luck in that spot, Alex Anthopoulos dug deeper into their depth and promoted Spencer Schwellenbach from the minors. This is a fun move considering he's their No. 3 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, but it's also one that is not risk-free.

Braves latest promotion comes with a lot of risk

When thinking about Braves prospects, pitchers like Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep come to mind before Schwellenbach. However, Schwellenbach saw his stock rise with a great first professional season in 2023, and has only improved that stock this season.

The right-hander began the year pitching for High-A Rome and performed at a very high level, posting a 2.53 ERA in six starts and 32 innings of work. He had 34 strikeouts compared to nine walks and allowed just one home run. It was clear he had earned a promotion, and got one to AA Mississippi.

Schwellenbach made two starts at that level and was dominant. He pitched 13 innings, allowing just five hits and one walk with 17 strikeouts and he did not allow a single run. Video game type of numbers.

As great as he was, the statistic that cannot be ignored is the fact that he made a total of two starts in AA. He did not pitch in AAA. The jump from AAA to the majors is big enough, the jump from two starts in AA to the majors feels absolutely massive.

The Braves promoting a top prospect with little experience in the upper minors isn't exactly a new thing for them. Michael Harris II was promoted in late May 2022 after playing just 43 games in AA and he wound up winning the NL Rookie of the Year award and proving to be an important piece for this Braves team. Harris had more AA experience than Schwellenbach did, but not by a substantial margin.

Now, there's a chance Schwellenbach winds up proving doubters wrong and pitches extremely well while making this massive leap like Harris, but it's a risk. With how poorly everyone else has pitched, it's a risk worth taking. With Anthopoulos' track record, he's earned the trust of Braves fans that he's making the right move.