What a Braves trade for former rival Cy Young candidate would look like
The Atlanta Braves have not played close to their best baseball, yet they enter Wednesday's action at 27-18, which is the third-best mark in the National League. They remain a contender to make a deep postseason run but might need to be active at the trade deadline to really make themselves comparable to powerhouses like the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.
One move Atlanta can make is to address their starting rotation. They've gotten tremendous contributions from pitchers like Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, but lost Spencer Strider for the year and Bryce Elder really struggled in his place. Replacing a pitcher like Strider isn't possible, but Atlanta can still certainly look to add another high-end arm to their rotation that currently ranks just 19th in innings pitched.
One potential target Atlanta is reportedly already keeping an eye on is Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. The former Philadelphia Phillies starter has elevated his game since signing a three-year deal with the Rays ahead of the 2023 campaign and would be a nice fit in Atlanta's rotation.
While Eflin makes sense for the Braves, the Rays are a team expecting to compete. They haven't gotten off to the best start ever but just got back to .500 and are one game out of a postseason spot. The Rays selling is far from a guarantee, but as we've seen in the past, they're always selling to an extent. If a deal were to take place, here's what it might look like.
Braves-Rays trade that would send Zach Eflin to Atlanta
If a deal between the Braves and Rays were to take place, here's what it might look like.
Eflin is a pitcher that Atlanta is very familiar with as he spent each of his first seven seasons with the Phillies. While he was nothing more than a decent mid-rotation arm there, he turned into a legitimate Cy Young contender in his first season with the Rays. Eflin finished sixth in the AL Cy Young balloting last season after posting a 3.50 ERA in 31 starts.
His numbers have dipped a bit this season, as he has a 4.12 ERA in ten starts but he has issued just four walks in 59 innings pitched and has a 3.69 FIP. Making the move from the notoriously difficult AL East back to the lighter NL East could help his numbers even more as we've seen with Chris Sale.
Not only would Eflin help this season, but he has another year on his contract. He's set to make a very reasonable $18 million in 2025. With Atlanta likely losing Max Fried in free agency, potentially losing Charlie Morton to retirement, and having some uncertainty about when Strider can return, adding Eflin can help for next season too. It's a no-brainer for the right price.
While the Rays trading Eflin might not make much sense considering they're in contention for a postseason spot, this wouldn't be out of the ordinary for them. I mean, they traded Tyler Glasnow over the offseason as he was approaching free agency. They've done this with several players, as is customary for smaller market teams. It wouldn't be a shock for Tampa Bay to look to maximize Eflin's value while they have him.
The return might seem light but could be along the lines of what Tampa Bay would be looking for if they traded Eflin.
Bryce Elder has really struggled since his All-Star first half of 2023, but he could turn things around with the Rays who have a tendency to get the most out of struggling pitchers. The most important thing here is Elder is under team control through the 2028 campaign and doesn't even hit arbitration until after 2026. He only just turned 25 years old and has had success at this level.
The other big piece Tampa Bay would acquire is Nacho Alvarez Jr., Atlanta's sixth-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline. While he's struggled a bit for AA Mississippi, he could be ready to contribute in the majors in a couple of years.
The third piece would be Darius Vines, a pitcher who is nothing more than a depth arm for Atlanta. Vines has had cups of coffee in the majors but hasn't stuck. He could potentially do so in Tampa Bay.
This might seem like a lot for Atlanta to give up on paper, but it's not. Eflin was one of the best pitchers in the AL last season and all signs indicate that when healthy, he could be that again this season. They're giving up two pitchers who haven't stuck in the majors for the Braves, and hold onto their elite pitching prospects, while the Rays get cheaper pitchers with more team control and a nice prospect as well.