Brewers magic number: Counting down to possible playoff berth [Updated Sept. 17]

The Milwaukee Brewers might've failed to finish off a sweep in Oakland this past weekend, but they did win two out of three to get to 20 games over the .500 mark. At 75-55, the Brewers now hold a commanding 10.0 game lead in the NL Central.

They've been one of the most surprising teams in the majors this season. Most expected them to have a bit of a down year, knowing that they had lost Craig Counsell to the Chicago Cubs, had traded Corbin Burnes, were going to be without Brandon Woodruff for the season, and without Devin Williams for the first half. Somehow, that has not been the case.

Milwaukee has been in first place in the division virtually all season and at this point, there's little reason to believe they're going to look back. FanGraphs gives them 100 percent odds to win the NL Central, which is music to the ears of all Brewers fans. Their odds are so promising right now to the point where it might just be realistic for fans of the team to think about their magic number.

What is a Magic Number?

Here's how MLB.com defines a magic number:

"In baseball, the phrase 'magic number' is used to determine how close a team is to making the playoffs or winning the division. It becomes prominent every year in September as teams begin closing in on clinching."

Essentially, a magic number dictates how close a given team is to clinching either a playoff spot or a division title. It's there all season, but becomes more important to pay attention to the closer we get to the playoffs.

How a magic number is calculated

The best way to explain how a magic number is calculated is to say it represents the number of outcomes that have to go in favor of the team with the magic number to secure either the playoff spot or division title.

Basically, any Brewers win or loss by the second-place team in the division will improve Milwaukee's magic number in the NL Central. Eventually, with enough Brewers wins and losses by the competition, Milwaukee's magic number will go down to zero. That'll be when they clinch the NL Central.

Current Magic Number for Brewers

The magic number for the Brewers is pretty easy to calculate. We need to look at the number of games in the regular season (162) and then subtract Brewers wins and losses for the second-place team.

The Milwaukee Brewers current magic number is 2.

After doing those subtractions, you'll arrive at the number 2. That's currently what the Brewers' magic number is. While that does appear relatively simple, there's one more thing to keep in mind.

In some situations, we'd have to add to the magic number by one, since the goal is to finish with the division win, not a tie. The Brewers beat the Cubs in the season series, so we don't have to do that in this case.

Any combination of 2 Brewers wins and Cubs losses guarantee the Brewers the division title as of this writing.

Historical Context

Brewers fans should be quite familiar with magic numbers, given the fact that their team has won the NL Central three times since 2018 and have made the playoffs five times in that same span.

They were able to clinch relatively early last season, winning the NL Central division title on Sept. 22 in a 16-1 annihilation of the Miami Marlins. Rowdy Tellez fittingly recorded the last out.

While they won the NL Central comfortably in 2023, they might clinch even earlier this season considering how they've played all year and how their competitors have stumbled in the second half. Barring a late surge from one of their division rivals, the Brewers might have this thing wrapped up by the middle of September, which would be a great feat.

Key Games to Watch

It's a good thing that the Brewers have built such a large cushion, as the team has the fourth-hardest schedule the rest of the way according to Tankathon.

The most important games for Brewers fans to watch are those within their division. The Brewers have just one series left after Sept. 17 against NL Central foes the rest of the way, and by then, the division should be all but wrapped up.

The Cubs might be in second place in the division right now, but the four teams in the NL Central who don't play in Milwaukee are separated by just a few games from one another. In the context of magic numbers, the Brewers should really be paying attention to all of their NL Central counterparts given the second-place opponent could change every day,.

It isn't a complete lock that the Brewers win their division, but they have as good of a chance as any other team in the majors. Their 10.0-game lead is the largest in the majors by far, which is why FanGraphs labels them as the only team with a 100 percent chance to win their division. It would take a historic collapse of epic proportions from MIlwaukee's end to make this interesting, and the Cubs would have to essentially win out. In other words, the division is basically won.