British Open projected cut line 2024: Will Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods make the cut at Royal Troon?

After listening to press conferences and interviews throughout the week leading up to the 2024 British Open at Royal Troon Golf Club, many thought we were going to be in for benign conditions and, as a result of that, some low scores to at least start the week in the final major championship of the season. Once Thursday arrived, however, that all changed.

With a links-style golf course that's still soft from all of the rain they continue to see at Royal Troon, the wind picking up to 20mph and the possibility of that increasing as the tournament goes on made conditions at The Open Championship quite bearish right from the jump. Even when we'd see the likes of Matt Wallace and many others climb to the top of the leaderboard, the chance to fall right back down was there soon after.

Not only did that depress the top of the leaderboard, though, it also made for an exceptionally intriguing build-up for the British Open cut coming after 36 holes. We were certainly set up to see potentially the highest cut in a major championship this year. With the dust settling, though, and the cut now upon us, what will the cut number ultimately look like?

Let's dive into the latest projections and look at which big-name golfers might be fighting to play the weekend.

Projected British Open cut number for Royal Troon

The British Open cut is most likely going to end up at +5 at Royal Troon this year according to the latest projections, courtesy of Datagolf. There is a 57.3% chance of the cut line ending up at this number as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Friday, which is a little more than midway through the second round of The Open Championship. The next likeliest cut number for this week at The Open is actually even higher at +6, which has a 41.1% chance of happening according to the latest projections. And if the conditions get even tougher, there is actually a 1% chance of the cut reaching +7.

Will Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and other notables make the cut?

Tiger Woods will not make the cut at the 2024 British Open at Royal Troon. After shooting a dismal 8-over 79 in the first round, he followed that up with another poor 6-over 77 in the second round to put him at +14. Even in these conditions, there's no chance he's anywhere close to the number.

Rory McIlroy could have a chance at making the cut still, however. His 7-over 78 that he shot in the first round was by no means impressive but, we know how talented the Northern Irishman is and one good round on Friday could change things dramatically for him in terms of his chances to play the weekend.

Other notables in the field who will be sweating the cut line at Troon will be the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Bryson DeChambeau, Tom Kim and Max Homa, all of whom shot +5 in their first rounds and will need to tighten it up to see the weekend. The same is even true of guys like like Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland after shooting 4-over in the first round.