Chicago Bears predictions for the 2024 NFL season: Division finish, playoff chances, number of wins and more

It's been quite the offseason for the Chicago Bears. The Monsters of the Midway have changed radically since the last time fans laid eyes on them, with a new franchise quarterback, new offensive weapons around him, and after years of mediocrity, a newfound swagger.

No franchise in the NFL has experienced the same level of glow-up that the Bears have in the past few months, and no, we're not talking about Matt Eberflus' makeover. The Bears traded Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers, drafted Heisman winner Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, then surrounded him with new talent to work with in the form of fellow rookie Rome Odunze, six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, and former Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift. Shane Waldron was also brought in to replace perpetual punching bag Luke Getsy as the team's offensive coordinator, which should equate to an upgraded scheme to complement the upgrade in personnel.

The Bears have gone just 10-24 under Eberflus, but that seems to matter little right now because the arrow seems to be pointing up. Williams, with his big personality, bigger arm and improvisational abilities, has already imbued the Bears fanbase with something it hasn't had in a while: confidence. But the offense isn't the only reason Bears fans are feeling themselves heading into the season.

The Bears' defense drastically improved last year following the in-season acquisition of Montez Sweat. That transformation likely saved Eberflus' job, and with both Sweat and top cornerback Jaylon Johnson now signed to long-term deals, the foundation is in place for a top-10 defense. Johnson headlines a young secondary that could make a case for being the best in the league, while Sweat anchors a line that should be even better thanks to the continued development of second-year players Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens.

The Bears were dominant in going 4-0 in the preseason, but as experience has taught us, preseason excellence has little to no bearing on regular-season success. For the Bears to actually prove that they're not only done with their years-long rebuild but ready to compete in an extremely competitive NFC, they'll need to prove it beginning with a Week 1 home date against the Tennessee Titans.

Until either Cairo Santos or Nick Folk kicks off on Sunday, the season is still one of infinite possibilities. We'll all know soon enough what this Bears team is made of, but for now, let's take our best guess at what this season has in store.

The Bears will go 11-6 this season

Here's the Bears' schedule, which has been rated by NFL analyst Warren Sharp as the third-easiest in the league.

One thing that stands out is the stark contrast between the first half of the season and the second. In the first nine games of the season, the Bears face only two 2023 playoff teams, the Texans and Rams, and have zero division games. After that, the only team Chicago faces that didn't have a winning record last year is the Vikings. This makes it imperative that the Bears start hot.

Going week-by-week down the schedule while projecting wins and losses is always a bit of a silly exercise, but it's still fun to do. The NFL is infamous for its unpredictability, which is why a team could beat the Super Bowl champs and then lose to a winless team the following week. Crazy, unpredictable results happen every year. Is that going to stop us? Not a chance.

Four of the Bears' first six opponents hail from the AFC South. We'll predict a convincing win at home against the rebuilding Titans in Week 1, a loss to a strong Texans team on Sunday night in Week 2, and then a win on the road at Indianapolis in a pivotal Week 3 game. The Bears had one of the best run defenses in the league last year and should be able to contain Jonathan Taylor. Anthony Richardson, who had his rookie season cut short by injury, won't be able to beat the ball-hawking Chicago secondary with his arm.

Week 4 will see the Rams come to Chicago in a battle between NFC contenders. Expect a close battle, but even though the Rams have won a Super Bowl and made the playoffs twice in Matthew Stafford's three years with the team, they still have just a .500 record on the road. Without Aaron Donald there to wreak havoc in the trenches, the Bears pull this one out.

This would put the Bears at 3-1, with a home date against the lowly Panthers and a London matchup with the Jaguars to go before the bye. Panthers fans are dreading this one, as it will be the final bit of unnecessary confirmation that Ryan Poles fleeced them two years ago. Caleb Williams and DJ Moore will light up the scoreboard and Eberflus' D will stifle Bryce Young in a Bears romp.

The Jacksonville game will be considerably tougher. The Jaguars have made London their second home, and for a young Bears team that will be feeling itself at 4-1, this one has all the makings of a letdown loss. With 11 games in England in the past 10 years, no team is even half as experienced as the Jags internationally. This has given them a significant advantage recently, as evidenced by victories over the Falcons and Bills in London last year.

The Bears will have a long flight home and a bye week to lick their wounds, then a soft schedule to get back on the winning track. A road trip to the Commanders should be fun, as it pits Caleb against Jayden Daniels, the second overall pick in the draft. Washington gutted most of its roster this offseason though, and don't have the talent to hang with the Bears' improved lineup. The story is similar for the Cardinals, who should be feisty with rookie phenom Marvin Harrison Jr., but don't have the defense to contain the Bears' multitude of weapons.

The Bears should be 6-2 when they come home to face the Patriots, widely considered to be the worst team in the league. By this point, journeyman Jacoby Brissett may have given way to rookie Drake Maye, but while the third overall pick has undeniable talent, he doesn't have much around him, either at the skill positions or on the offensive line. The Bears should cruise in this one.

At 7-2, the Bears will be among the best records in the league when the Packers come to town. Green Bay has owned the Bears in recent years, and last year was no different, as the NFL's oldest rivalry bookended the regular season with Packers wins. This new era of Bears football provides hope that things will change, but overconfidence after an easy early schedule could be the Bears' undoing. Expect Jordan Love and company to rain on the Bears' parade in Week 11.

It's been all fun and games up until this point, but following the Packers loss, we'll finally get to see what these Bears are made of. A home win over the Vikings should get the team back on track, but back-to-back road dates at Detroit (on Thanksgiving) and San Francisco are a tall order. The Bears would be thrilled to split those games, but an 0-2 stretch is more likely. They follow that up with the Vikings again, only this time it's on the road on Monday night. This one will be close, but the Bears will rise to the challenge and find a way to end their two-game losing streak.

This would put the Bears at 9-5 and in control of their destiny heading into the final three weeks of the season. The Lions come to town in Week 16. It should be close, but the Bears are still learning to beat good teams. Detroit wins this one. The Seahawks visit the following week, and though I expect Mike Macdonald to get this underrated team to the playoffs in his first year, asking them to win a cold, windy night game at Soldier Field the day after Christmas is too much to ask. The Bears prevail to move to 10-6.

That sets up a regular season finale at Lambeau Field against a Packers team that beat the Bears once and could also have a postseason berth sewn up by this point. I expect both teams to be 10-6, but with playoff seeding and bragging rights on the line, plus revenge for the mid-November game in Chicago on their minds, the Bears will get a signature win to close out the year.

Expect the Bears to finish second in the NFC North

Headlined by last season's NFC runner-up Detroit Lions, the NFC North is likely to be one of the toughest divisions in football. Dan Campbell's bunch is talented on both sides of the ball, with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs on offense and Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch and Alim McNeill headlining the defense. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson eschewed the chance at a head coaching job in order to make another run in the Motor City, and after falling agonizingly short against the 49ers in the NFC Championship last year, the Lions are thinking Super Bowl or bust.

The Green Bay Packers also made the playoffs last year, proving that the franchise could thrive in a post-Aaron Rodgers world. Jordan Love looked every bit as dynamic as his predecessor in leading the Cheeseheads to a 9-8 record and a road whoopin' of the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs. With Josh Jacobs as the new lead back and another year of growth for the league's most precocious receiving corps, the Pack project to be even better this year.

If there's an easy mark in this division, most people expect it to be the Minnesota Vikings, but don't be so quick to dismiss Kevin O'Connell's club just because Kirk Cousins has left for Atlanta. The Vikings have a fully healthy Justin Jefferson, a Brian Flores-coached defense, and their best runner since Dalvin Cook now that they've signed former enemy Aaron Jones. Quarterback play will limit the damage Minnesota can do, but the Vikings will be anything but an easy out week-to-week.

Here's our best guess for how the division will shake out.

Can the Bears make a run in the playoffs?

If the Bears can go 11-6 just two years after having the worst record in the league, it will be a testament to the outstanding job Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus have done in turning this team around, but the work will be far from over. Incredibly, Bears fans haven't experienced a playoff win since 2011. This is tied for the fourth-longest active streak in the NFL, but it will end this year.

That's because the Bears will march into Atlanta and beat the fourth-seeded Falcons to advance to the Divisional Round. The Falcons will benefit from a weak schedule and a weak division to make the playoffs at 9-8, but they'll have no answer for the Bears' formidable attack and ferocious defense, which will force Kirk Cousins into several turnovers in a lopsided Bears win.

After the Lions beat the Seahawks and the Packers upset the Eagles, this will send the Bears back to Detroit for a Thanksgiving rematch. Although the Lions beat the Bears twice in the regular season, the third time will be the charm for the Monsters of the Midway, who will come out on top after Caleb Williams leads them down the field for a game-winning Cairo Santos field goal as time expires.

The only thing standing between the Bears and their first Super Bowl since 2007 will be the San Francisco 49ers, who will be fresh off eliminating the Packers for the second straight year. The Niners are loaded on both sides of the ball, and they have one thing the young Bears lack: playoff experience. The preseason holdouts of Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams will be but a distant memory, and behind the open-field playmaking of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, the pass-rushing ability of Nick Bosa and the veteran savvy of Fred Warner, the Niners will send the Bears home and advance to the Super Bowl for the second straight year.

Bears final report card

Any way you slice it, going 11-6 and winning two playoff games would be a resounding success for the Bears this season, earning them an A on their season-long report card. Falling just short of the Super Bowl would be painful, but with such a young, talented roster, the best is yet to come for this franchise. This is the start of a new era of Bears football, and it all begins this week. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, Bears fans.