Coaching matters: NFL analytics expert has Sean McVay coaching tree serving Falcons

As a lifelong Atlanta Falcons fan, I can definitively say one thing I have learned from watching, covering and rooting for this franchise. Coaching matters, plain and simple. When the team has an elite coordinator on either side of the ball, that usually means success is coming. The only problem is Atlanta rarely has the right head coach to sustain excellence for any real length of time, to be honest.

However, it seems as though going back to the Shanahan and McVay coaching tree in this offseason cycle could serve them. Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson and Jimmy Lake all served under Sean McVay as part of the Los Angeles Rams, who in turn served under Mike Shanahan when he was the head coach of Washington over a decade ago. I had to ask Aaron Schatz of FTN about this regime change.

What the Chiefs Analytics Officer for FTN had to tell me about Robinson, in particular, fascinated me.

"I'm going to say three things. The first is there are very few coaches where we have enough of a sample size of their careers at different stops to say that they really impact things."

This may not be a ringing endorsement of Morris directly, but trust me, it does get better for Atlanta.

"The second thing I'll say is all other things being equal, when you have a new coaching staff, things take a step back a little bit. You usually don't see it because those teams are usually bad, and the strength of regression to the mean is stronger than you lose a little bit with a new coordinator. But you do lose a little bit with a new coordinator."

Then, what really grabbed my attention in the interview on The Blogging Dirty Podcast was this bit.

"However, the third thing I'll say ... it's absolutely true that offensive coordinators from The McVay and Shanahan Tree are better. Like, they do better. Their teams have better offenses, and that there is actually a variable in the system this year that boosts the offenses of teams with coordinators that come off The Shanahan and McVay Tree. The problem for the Falcons is that the Saints also hired one of those guys."

The New Orleans Saints did hire Klint Kubiak to replace Pete Carmichael Jr., but that is not the point.

"It's absolutely a reason to believe that the Falcons offense will be better this year, even without the quarterback change."

Here is my entire interview with the creator of DVOA, on behalf of FTN and the FTN Football Almanac.

Schatz may not be as high on the Falcons as I am, but he does see them being better than last year.

NFL analytics expert Aaron Schatz high on Atlanta Falcons offensive staff

While Morris may have a stronger defensive background, he did serve on the offensive staff here in Atlanta under Dan Quinn, overlapping with Kyle Shanahan during his brilliant two-year run as the Falcons' offensive coordinator. This may be Robinson and Lake's first foray in coming to Atlanta, but they too have impressive track records with their previous stops, especially with regards to Robinson.

Robinson played for Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State before spending some time in the NFL, most notably with the New England Patriots before getting into coaching. He spent some time working at Pro Football Focus prior to joining McVay's staff in Los Angeles. To cross paths with the likes of Gundy, McVay and Bill Belichick is nothing to sneeze at. Will Robinson be ready for his big moment?

The good news is I fully expect that Morris will empower him on the offensive side of the ball. The fact that Lake also has previous head-coaching experience will help Morris embrace the CEO-type of head coach he needs to be for this team in his second run with Atlanta, and his second real shot at being an NFL head coach after failing with the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers well over a decade ago.

Overall, I am astounded with how much I learned about football analytics in speaking with Schatz on Wednesday morning. Admittedly, I am more of a narrative guy than a numbers guy when it comes to writing sports articles professionally. However, I am always willing to learn from other people from different backgrounds and walks of life in order to gain a better appreciation of something to improve.

Ultimately, it doesn't really matter if Schatz is more down on the Falcons than most people are entering this season in a conventional sense. What you have to remember is that it is in this team's nature to overachieve when you least expect it, as well as shrink when the spotlight is the brightest. For whatever reason, we still choose to root for this team, Dirty Bird Nation, and for that I salute you.

Expectations may be high for this year's team, but this is the time of the season to have optimism.

Aaron Schatz spoke to FanSided on behalf of FTN to promote the FTN Football Almanac for 2025.