SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch after Week 3: Are 3 top-6 seeds in play?

If there was one grandiose takeaway I had from the third week of the 2024 college football season, it was this: Coaching absolutely matters! Teams who were able to lean on their head coaches and coordinators were either served in the end, or did enough to keep it close. Conversely, teams that were not well-coached or did not look prepared suffered the consequences of such problems.

As expected, the SEC was no different. We saw coaching staffs all across the board shine, while others left the fanbases pulling all of their remaining head out of their noggins. This may have been the case in other leagues, but it was never more present in the SEC, especially during its two biggest games of note: The signature game of the week in Columbia, and the nighttime affair up in Lexington.

Now that the dust has settled just a bit, let's take a look at the SEC as a whole and figure out where its 16 member institutions stand when it comes to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Some teams are locks, while others are borderline. Others might be fun teams with virtually no chance of getting in, while others are almost certainly playing for next season already. Let's do it!

Let's start by unveiling who would be my 12 teams in the College Football Playoff field after Week 3.

Projected College Football Playoff field

1. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) (Big Ten champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) (ACC champion)
4. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) (Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (3-0) (SEC runner-up)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) (SEC at-large)
7. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) (SEC at-large)
8. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) (SEC at-large)
9. USC Trojans (2-0) (Big Ten runner-up)
10. Missouri Tigers (3-0) (SEC at-large)
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) (Big Ten at-large)
12. UNLV Rebels (3-0) (Mountain West champion/Group of Five champion)

Now, let's break down where every SEC team stands after Week 3 regarding the playoff picture.

SEC bubble watch after Week 3

College Football Playoff locks

Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

It was not a fun game to watch for me personally, but a win is a win is a win is a win! Georgia still has not allowed a touchdown in its first three games of the season. That will surely change when the Dawgs take on Alabama in Week 3. Georgia got Kentucky's best punch, and it still wasn't enough to dethrone the SEC juggernauts. Even more importantly, Georgia showed virtually nothing to Alabama.

Texas Longhorns (3-0)

Texas blew the barn doors of UTSA in the Longhorns' laugher of a ballgame. Quinn Ewers got hurt, again, and in came Arch Manning. He looked like the real deal under center for Steve Sarkisian, even though this is not the same UTSA team from last year. The Roadrunners were so unprepared to contain him. Regardless, Texas is in great hands when it comes to its quarterbacking succession plan.

Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)

Tennessee looks unstoppable at times. The Volunteers have gone from a probable playoff team in my eyes, to more than just a lock to get in at this point. It would not honestly shock me if the Vols got to Atlanta and won the SEC this season. They need to handle business vs. a massively overrated Oklahoma Sooners team next weekend to potentially get on Georgia or Texas' level, but we shall see!

Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Give Alabama a ton of credit for figuring out who the Crimson Tide are in a hurry under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. It is amazing what happens when you let Jalen Milroe take over a game with his arm and legs. Wisconsin was pretty much dead in the water once Tyler Van Dyke had to leave the game, but a blowout victory on the road vs. a Big Ten blue-blood is nothing to sneeze at either.

Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)

It wasn't that long ago Ole Miss and Wake Forest were 10-win teams. Over the course of three years, we have seen the Rebels transform into one of the best teams in the sport, while Wake Forest has devolved into one of the worst in the Power Four. Ole Miss has been a playoff-caliber team all season long. I have doubts about their ability to lose only one or fewer games, but this team is elite!

College Football Playoff bubble teams

Missouri Tigers (3-0)

Even after seeing Missouri survive a scare at home vs. the feisty Boston College Eagles, I am not moving the Tigers up into lock status. In fact, I moved them down a spot from No. 9 to No. 10 in my projected playoff field. I even considered having them as the last team in. My concern is that the offense looks pedestrian vs. even a halfway decent ACC team. This was a home game nonetheless.

Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

I don't trust Oklahoma at all. When I said coaching matters at the top of the post, this is one of the games I was referring to. Even this more talented team got the victory, Willie Fritz and Jon Sumrall had the Sooners on upset alert in the Houston and Tulane games, respectively. Jackson Arnold is inexperienced, and this offensive line is bad. OU should be in for a rude awakening vs. Tennessee.

LSU Tigers (2-1)

LSU has one of the softer schedules in the SEC, but nearly started the season in a 1-2 hole. Brian Kelly is not in his bag when it comes to coaching. I don't think Blake Baker is a bad defensive coordinator, but his defense is not taking. Garrett Nussmeier does not trust his defense backing him up because that unit cannot tackle. If not for poor coaching from Shane Beamer, this would be an L.

Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)

In my honest opinion, Texas A&M needs to go with Marcel Reed at quarterback the rest of the way. Conner Weigman is not only unreliable, but I think he might be the most overrated quarterback in the country. Florida may be hellaciously bad, but you would have thought with the way Reed had command of Collin Klein's offense that Mike Elko and company had been coaching A&M for years.

Fun, but not College Football Playoff caliber

South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1)

There are a lot of things the South Carolina Gamecocks do well, and there are things that they do not. Shane Beamer was the epitome of cocky on Saturday, as his team somehow found a way to rip defeat away from the jaws of victory. They ran all over a porous LSU defense, but had a pair of pick-sixes called back. This was a game to take South Carolina seriously, but they are really only a bowl team.

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-1)

Vanderbilt was destined to lose at some point, and it finally happened in Week 3 vs. Georgia State. Despite a surge at the end to the Panthers, Vanderbilt once again showed that it does not have the offense to really be relied upon. Diego Pavia does move the needle, but I wonder if this team has the players to hold serve in SEC play. They may get a game or two, but six might be out of the question.

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1)

If not for losing to Oklahoma State in overtime last week, Arkansas would be undefeated. While the UAB Blazers gave them all they could handle, this is probably going to end up being far better than a 3-9 team I forecasted to start the season. Arkansas should be going to a bowl game, but I am not sure if that will even be enough for Sam Pittman to keep his job. It will all come down to SEC play for him.

Not a College Football Playoff team in 2024

Auburn Tigers (2-1)

Truth be told, Cal might be a team of quality over in the ACC. It still doesn't change the fact that Auburn lost at home to them two weeks ago in absolutely brutal fashion. Pivoting off Payton Thorne in favor of Hank Brown did technically help the Tigers get to an easy victory over New Mexico, but Auburn was always going to beat the Lobos. My concern is that Auburn is playing for 2025 already.

Kentucky Wildcats (1-2)

I think what we saw out of Kentucky the last two weekends was their worst game of the season vs. South Carolina, followed up by potentially their best game vs. Georgia. Well, they lost both of them. Kentucky has a great defense and is menacing in the trenches, but there are so many inherent limitations with Brock Vandagriff at quarterback. He cannot throw the football downfield hardly at all.

Florida Gators (1-2)

At this point, it is not a matter of if but a matter of when Florida moves on from Billy Napier. While Graham Mertz looked pedestrian as normal, maybe DJ Lagway is not as ready for the bright lights as we want him to be? All the while, Texas A&M wiped the floor with the Gators in their house of worship. This is the second time it has happened to a Power Four team in three weeks. Don't make it four...

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2)

I have said all year long that Mississippi State actually has one of the easiest schedules in the SEC, all things considered. Well, none of that is going to matter after seeing them lose back-to-back games in the non-conference to Arizona State and now Toledo. Although the Sun Devils and Rockets are combined 6-0, those were two wins Mississippi State needed desperately to even go to a bowl game.

A few teams will be on bye next week in the SEC, but the league is starting to find its level, alright...