College Football Playoff bracket watch: Upsets muddy waters for Alabama, Tennessee

The College Football Playoff rankings are five weeks from debuting but waves that will ripple through the bracket are already being made. Week 6 brought us upsets galore, with underdogs winning seven of the 17 games involving ranked teams.

A week ago, teams like Missouri, Michigan, USC and Louisville might have been involved in the bubble conversation. After losses to Texas A&M, Washington, Minnesota and SMU respectively, those teams aren't even among the first four out.

Sure, teams can survive a loss. Yes, a big win this early isn't the end-all, be-all. Having said that, what you do in October does set the stage for everything else.

After six weeks, the College Football Playoff bracket is coming into focus. Here's what it could look like...

College Football Playoff bracket projections: First four out

4th team out: Utah Utes

If I could guarantee that Cam Rising will play the remaining games for Utah, it would be a lot easier to project them as the Big 12 champion. But Kyle Whittingham can't be trusted on that front. And even if he does come back, will he stay healthy? Will he be rusty? The Utes were on a bye this week so they got extra time to heal up. They'll be favored to win most of their games going forward but BYU and Iowa State loom, not to mention Colorado. The Big 12 is just too hard to predict at this point.

3rd team out: Indiana Hoosiers

I certainly didn't expect to factor Indiana into the College Football Playoff bracket at any point this season but here we are. The Indiana Hoosiers are 6-0 after a 41-24 win over Northwestern. And there is a real chance they could walk into the Horseshoe on Nov. 23 to face Ohio State still undefeated. That would be very fun to see, but I'm also not betting on it. They've played an exceedingly easy schedule to this point. Nebraska and Washington could be tricky outs while Michigan is still Michigan despite their loss to the Huskies. And predicting a win over Ohio State is a bridge too far.

2nd team out: LSU Tigers

LSU has rebounded well enough since their slow start to the season, enjoying a bye week before their next big meeting with Ole Miss. They're certainly not out of the running in the SEC but I'm going to be honest: The Tigers haven't shown me anything to suggest they'll be able to make it through the next stretch unscathed. They get Ole Miss, then back-to-back road games with Arkansas and Texas A&M, then a game against Alabama. If they make it through with just one loss in four that'll be impressive. I'm expecting two at least.

1st team out: Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee's loss to Arkansas, 19-14, was particularly costly for a few reasons. The first? The Volunteers offense can't call their uninspiring output against Oklahoma a fluke. Arkansas also limited the attack. Second? The Vols still have to play Alabama and Georgia. Both of those teams are vulnerable as well, so those aren't guaranteed losses. Still, UT is likely staring down three losses and that might be enough to keep them out.

College Football Playoff bracket projections: Seeds No. 12-8

No. 12 seed: Boise State Broncos (vs. No. 5)

If you haven't taken a look at what Ashton Jeanty is doing with the Boise State Broncos, now is the time to jump on the hype train. The electric running back already has 1,031 yards and 16 touchdowns through just five games. Those are numbers most running backs in college football would be pleased with across a whole season. With Jeanty leading the way, the Broncos are the favorites in the Mountain West. If they win the conference, they're heading for the playoff.

No. 11 seed: Ole Miss Rebels (vs. No. 6)

Ole Miss's loss to Kentucky still puts them on a tightrope for the rest of the season, especially with LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia coming up over the next five weeks. Their 27-3 win at South Carolina put a better taste in their mouth. Why have the Rebels in while leaving other SEC hopefuls out? I'm just more confident they'll come through with two losses than the rest.

No. 10 seed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (vs. No. 7)

Notre Dame is the perfect example of how September is the best time to suffer a shocking upset. No one will care about that faceplant vs. Northern Illinois if you win the rest of the way. The Irish were on a bye so they couldn't add to their win total, but their win over Texas A&M looks better this week after the Aggies' big win over Missouri. The rest of ND's schedule looks highly navigable. Their toughest test remains USC at the end of the season and anyone who has seen the Trojans' offensive line knows how winnable that game will be.

No. 9 seed: Clemson Tigers (vs. No. 8)

Are the Clemson Tigers a Top 10 squad this season? I'm not so sure about that. But the one thing they are is consistently competitive. Their schedule suits their strengths — i.e. beating the teams they should beat — without many major tests the rest of the way outside of Louisville and back-to-back road trips to Virginia Tech and Pitt. This week they added to Florida State's misery with a 29-13 win. If they keep winning, they'll keep rising. And I expect them to keep winning.

College Football Playoff bracket projections: Seeds No. 8-5

No. 8 seed: Penn State Nittany Lions (vs. No. 9)

Penn State hosted hapless UCLA and came away with a relatively unsatisfying 27-11 win. They were a 29-point favorite and won by 16. Is it nitpicky to be unimpressed? Maybe, but the Nittany Lions weren't going to prove much this weekend. The first real test of James Franklin's mettle comes next week in Los Angeles. We just watched a slew of teams that traveled across the country get a taste of road game humble pie. Will PSU avoid a letdown against a reeling USC? We'll find out.

No. 7 seed: Oregon Ducks (vs. No. 10)

The Oregon Ducks are undefeated ahead of their mega matchup with Ohio State next week thanks to a 31-10 victory over Michigan State on Friday night. Was it a particularly impressive win? No. Was it a relatively uneventful victory on a weekend when upsets were around every corner? Yes. That counts for something. I'm not picking the Ducks against the Buckeyes, but after that game Oregon has a stretch of games they should win en route to the Big Ten title game.

No. 6 seed: Georgia Bulldogs (vs. No. 11)

Unlike my FanSided colleague Cody Williams, I'm keeping Georgia behind Alabama in the rankings. The Bulldogs haven't looked all that impressive over the last month or so. They survived Kentucky, lost to Alabama and then toyed with Auburn. They still have to go to Texas and Ole Miss while hosting Tennessee. If they don't start putting things together, they've got another loss or two in their future.

No. 5 seed: Alabama Crimson Tide (vs. No. 12)

The Alabama Crimson Tide have looked nothing short of shaky since halftime of their big win against Georgia last week. A 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt certainly takes the shine off of that one. I've got serious questions about Kane Womack's defense at this point. Having said that, I like Alabama's chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game against a schedule that includes Tennessee, Mizzou, LSU and Oklahoma better than I like Georgia's chances of getting through their schedule unscathed.

College Football Playoff bracket projections: Seeds No. 4-1

No. 4 seed: Iowa State Cyclones (Bye as Big 12 Champion)

The Big 12 is weird. Good luck making any sense of it. The Utah Utes were not in action, which gives Cam Rising one more week to get healthy. Still, we've been through the "Cam Rising might play, but maybe not?" experience before. Until Utah actually has Rising quarterbacking them, Iowa State looks like the team to beat in the conference. The Cyclones improved to 5-0 with a 43-21 win over Baylor. Rocco Becht is playing very well, while running back Jaylon Jackson is coming alive.

No. 3 seed: Miami Hurricanes (Bye as ACC Champion)

Miami are the cardiac kids, surviving yet another upset bid in the final seconds of play. This time it was Cal, who thought they had a monumental victory in hand leading 38-18 in the fourth quarter. But Cam Ward is Cam Ward. He led the comeback with two touchdown passes and a scoring run. In the driver's seat in the ACC, it's all about winning. The 39-38 victory was enough, even if it did show more cracks in the Hurricanes' armor.

No. 2 seed: Ohio State Buckeyes (Bye as Big Ten Champion)

The slow starts continue for Ohio State, but so do the big second halves. The Buckeyes had trouble breaking through Iowa's defense early but they dropped 28-points in the second half before the Hawkeyes found the endzone for the first time. Jeremiah Smith remains a monster while Emeka Egbuka hauled in three touchdowns on Saturday. If Iowa's defense couldn't contain those playmakers, what defense will?

No. 1 seed: Texas Longhorns (Bye as SEC Champion)

Alabama's win over Georgia put the Crimson Tide in the driver's seat in the SEC. Their loss to Vanderbilt changes things. At the moment, Texas has the clearest path to the SEC Championship Game and conference title. Their biggest challenges left are Oklahoma, Georgia and Texas A&M. Sure going to Vanderbilt and Arkansas will be no picnic and Kentucky is always a tough out. Still, you've got to like the Longhorns until proven otherwise.