College football rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan, USC shockingly upset in Week 6

If anyone looked at the AP Top 25 college football rankings and told you that Week 6 was going to be a bore, you have my permission to make fun of them. While there may have only been one matchup between ranked teams on Saturday, that didn’t stop upsets galore (not to mention some near upsets) from dramatically shaking up the rankings. 

Undoubtedly, the biggest upset of the week saw the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide go on the road and get smacked in the mouth by Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores. They weren't the only Top 5 SEC team to suffer an upset, though, as Tennessee went on the road to Fayetteville and fell flat against Arkansas.

But perhaps just as shocking was No. 10 Michigan losing on the road at Washington and No. 11 USC falling to Minnesota away from home. And now, they’ll fall completely out of the AP Top 25 with two losses and surely have their College Football Playoff hopes on life support. 

That’s just the beginning when we start talking about the chaos of Week 6, though, so now we have a wild and extremely tough task of projecting the AP Top 25 rankings for Week 7 after an upset-filled and chaotic weekend in college football.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 25-21

25. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’d be lying if I told you that the Pitt Panthers behind Alabama transfer Eli Holstein were on my radar to start the season undefeated at 5-0 but here we are. Let’s not act like beating this disastrous North Carolina team is a huge accomplishment but avoiding a letdown spot is big-time for Pat Narduzzi and Co. This team still has plenty to prove but they could be chaos-makers in the ACC with how things are transpiring. 

24. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Coming into the week, I picked Nebraska to get upset in Lincoln by Rutgers, largely based on how the Huskers performed late in a physical contest and ultimately their only loss on the year to Illinois. But it seems as if Dylan Raiola and Co. are quickly growing up as they were ready for the muck of the Scarlet Knights, specifically the Nebraska defense, and coming out of it as the lone survivor. Maybe the Cornhuskers are legit after all.

23. Illinois Fighting Illini

Some people, Illinois fans in particular, were shocked that the Illini didn’t drop out of the rankings after last week’s loss to Penn State, even if it was in a close game. But now Bret Bielema’s team has the week off to lick its wounds before welcoming lowly Purdue to town. Then we’ll really get to see the Illini run the gauntlet with hosting Michigan and visiting Oregon in back-to-back weeks. 

22. SMU Mustangs

After seeing the first few games of the season with Preston Stone, there was every reason to believe that SMU’s foray into the ACC would not be smooth sailing. Since the early struggles (and their lone loss to unbeaten BYU), the Mustangs have switched to Kevin Jennings and it’s changed everything, notably leading to this week’s upset win over Louisville. Rhett Lashlee’s team looks legit and should ostensibly replace the Cardinals in the AP Top 25. 

21. Indiana Hoosiers

Go ahead and take a long drag of the smoke Coach Cig is serving in Bloomington! The Indiana Hoosiers continued their storybook start to the season with a big road win by the lake against Northwestern. In reality, there are only two games against high-end competition remaining for the Hoosiers (Ohio State and Michigan) and we have to start considering how realistic Indiana making the CFP actually is at this point.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 20-16

20. Kansas State Wildcats

Following their Week 4 loss to BYU that had everyone down on the Wildcats, it was a strong answer from Kansas State a week ago to wallop Oklahoma State — though that win is looking less impressive with where the Pokes are as a team right now. This team has clearly been looking for its footing, though, but may have found it and we’ll see how true that is as they have to go to Boulder next week to take on Colorado and an offense that will put K-State’s questionable defense to the test.

19. Boise State Broncos

It says quite a lot about both Boise State and Utah State that the Broncos may not have even needed Ashton Jeanty on Saturday night to move to 4-1 on the season. Of course, with the potential Heisman Trophy favorite, it was even lighter work. With 186 yards and three scores in the first half, Boise blitzed the Aggies top-to-bottom in this matchup and remains the frontrunner to make the College Football Playoff out of the Group of 5.

18. Oklahoma Sooners

Let’s not be a broken record about this, but can someone please tell me what Oklahoma has done that’s truly impressive through their first five games? Perhaps beating Tulane in Norman is their best accomplishment to date but that’s still hardly enough to justify as a surefire Top 25 team to this point. Having said that, if the Sooners want to make a statement, handing rival Texas their first loss in Red River would certainly get the job done. 

17. Utah Utes

Excuse me, Kyle Whittingham; can you please let us know if we’ll see Cam Rising anytime soon… and can you also not give us the runaround with your answer? Utah is a substantially different team with and without Rising. The defense travels and is good whenever but, if Rising misses more time, the offense is such a step down that they’re susceptible even against a team like Arizona State next week. 

16. Missouri Tigers

Not to sound too overdramatic but Missouri has to be on fraud watch now. It was one thing in a trap spot to have Vanderbilt push the Tigers into overtime, it’s another thing entirely to face by far the stiffest competition on the schedule to date and get boat-raced up and down Kyle Field on Saturday. Eli Drinkwitz needs to do some serious soul-searching with his team after this loss because, with a soft-ish schedule on deck, their CFP hopes coming into the season could quickly devolve into a fight for bowl eligibility if this thing keeps spiraling in SEC play.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 15-11

15. BYU Cougars

Jake Retzlaff and BYU are one of the biggest early-season surprises imaginable, a team that was expected to be in a fight for bowl eligibility sitting at 5-0 and comfortable in the AP Top 25. Wins against SMU and Kansas State continue to look stronger while a trap spot against Baylor that saw the Cougs escape with a win make for a nice resumé. Before mid-November, though, BYU will play Arizona, Oklahoma State, at UCF and then have the Holy War in Salt Lake City vs. Utah. Talk about a proving ground!

14. Iowa State Cyclones

Despite Saturday’s visit from Baylor being close for the better part of three quarters, the win for Iowa State only made my faith in the unbeaten Cyclones grow even more. With the meat of the schedule and three straight games against bowl-trajectory teams on deck, this was a clear trap and look-ahead game. So to tighten up and pull away speaks to the character of Matt Campbell’s group and keeps them as a real dark horse to take the Big 12. 

13. Clemson Tigers

Florida State absolutely looked more competent without D.J. Uiagalelei helming the offense but it was still no match for Clemson. Since the season-opening loss to Georgia, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers have shored things up dramatically. Cade Klubnik has been a dynamic dual threat and the defense has looked as advertised. While many were looking at Miami to run away with the ACC’s automatic bid to the CFP, Clemson appears as if they might have a say in that before it’s said and done. 

12. Texas A&M Aggies

Even if you thought Texas A&M was going to win as they welcome Mizzou to College Station on Saturday afternoon, you probably didn’t have the way this one actually played out as the outcome. The Aggies, who got Conner Weigman back in the fold this week, completely blasted the Tigers in a game that was truly never in doubt for the home team. The CFP is now a realistic hope once again for Mike Elko’s squad as the schedule appears to ease up quite a bit before the finale hosting rival Texas. 

11. Tennessee Volunteers

The more I started to look at Tennessee as they went on the road to face Arkansas in Fayetteville, the more worried I started to become. The Razorbacks were the best offense this vaunted Vols defense had faced to date while Bobby Petrino is the best OC they've faced as well. But what I didn't totally expect was the Hogs defense to cause Nico Iamaleava so many problems with the Tennessee offense, and now we have real questions about what this team will be against the best of the SEC moving forward.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 10-9

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Even though it was less than a month ago, the loss to Northern Illinois feels almost a lifetime away for Notre Dame. Their win to open the year against Texas A&M has gotten stronger and they handled Louisville before going into their bye.

Having said that, their end-of-October date with Navy throws a bit of a wrench in what was supposed to be an easy run up to their date with USC to end the regular season. But the CFP remains very much in the cards for the Irish. 

9. LSU Tigers

Am I absolutely, positively, 100%, without a shadow of a doubt sure that the LSU Tigers are a good football team in the year 2024? Not really! A narrow win at South Carolina remains the team’s crowning achievement this season and their loss to USC in Las Vegas to begin the year now looks even worse with the Trojans suffering a second defeat. 

We’ll learn more than enough about Brian Kelly’s group over the next four games, though, as they face a true make-or-break stretch. Out of this week’s bye, they welcome Ole Miss, visit Arkansas, then visit Texas A&M before finishing that run against Alabama in Baton Rouge. If they survive that gauntlet even just mildly scathed, the Tigers could be well in the thick of the Playoff race. 

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 8-7

8. Ole Miss Rebels

One week after getting shocked by Kentucky, it seemed as if Ole Miss was in danger of an eerily similar result given how Lane Kiffin’s team matched up with South Carolina on the road. Credit to the Rebels, however, because they were far more dialed in with their margin for error this season erased. Jaxson Dart and the offense were good but this was very much about the defense clamping down for their most impressive effort to date to pick up a critical bounce-back win.

It gets quite interesting from here for the Rebs, though. Next week holds a trip to face LSU before they then welcome Oklahoma after their bye, go on the road to Arkansas, and then welcome Georgia to Oxford. They have a soft finishing stretch against Florida and Mississippi State to end the year but what they look like when they get to that spot is still up for debate. For now, with some help from some chaos, they reenter the Top 10. 

7. Miami Hurricanes

Miami is just playing with fire at this point without having yet been burned. Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes looked like they were unquestionably burned with their road trip to Cal in Week 6 and with College GameDay in attendance, trailing by three scores in the fourth quarter late into the night on the East Coast (and the West Coast, for that matter). But when push came to shove, Cam Ward pulled out heroics and pulled out the win.

With this game coming after the Hail Mary scare against Virginia Tech, it's clear Miami needs their by next week direly. This team looks a bit sloppy, a bit tired, and a bit like they need to take a beat and regroup before coming back in Week 8 for another road game, this one against Louisville. The U remains the favorite to win the ACC but, if these close calls are more than just an aberration, then the Canes' stronghold on the conference could be far weaker than we previously thought.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 6-5

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Based on what we’ve seen from the UCLA Bruins so far this season, you might’ve expected a bit more of a dominant effort from James Franklin’s Penn State. Here’s the thing: While that can be true, it can also be true that the Nittany Lions never had the outcome of their matchup on Saturday in doubt and that was almost definitely by design given what lies ahead. 

With no Nicholas Singleton in this matchup, it was more Drew Allar throwing the rock around with Kaytron Allen serving as the bell cow for the day. It wasn’t explosive but it was an overall dominant 27-11 victory. More importantly, with a huge matchup on the road next week looming against USC — a long road trip, no less — Franklin’s group was able to get a bit healthier, put as little as possible on tape and will be better served in a matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications. 

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Just as we all predicted, the Alabama Crimson Tide followed up their electric win over the Georgia Bulldogs only to fall into the hornet’s nest known as FirstBank Stadium in Nashville and get upset by the Vanderbilt Commodores. You know, the same ‘Dores that had lost 23 straight to the Tide, that had lost their previous 60 meetings against teams ranked inside the Top 5 of the AP Top 25, that had been the doormat of the SEC for years. 

Okay, so maybe almost no one saw this one coming. Outside of a pick-six that wasn’t entirely Jalen Milroe’s fault, the Alabama offense didn’t play poorly at all in this matchup. However, the defense that showed some worrying signs in the second half against Georgia and had left guys open in other games wherein they weren’t burnt got touched up on Saturday. Letdown game or not, Bama has to be properly penalized in the rankings for such a dramatic loss.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 4-3

4. Oregon Ducks

There is arguably no team in the AP Top 25 that I have a worse feel for than the Oregon Ducks. It’s not for lack of trying or watching Dan Lanning’s team. But it’s been extremely hard to marry the perception of this group coming into the season with the product that’s ultimately been put on the field. Friday night’s win in Eugene over Michigan State was no exception to that. 

Dillon Gabriel continues to look like a stark downgrade from Bo Nix a season ago with the Ducks, though Jordan James is starting to come into his own. And while I do have faith in the talent on defense, they still have some lapses. The good news with all of the uncertainty around Oregon, however, is that next week when Ohio State visits the Pacific Northwest will tell is a great deal about if this group has been playing possum or just simply might not be the team we thought they were. 

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Look, I know Georgia lost to Alabama last week and fully agree that head-to-head results should matter. But as we’re looking to project the AP Top 25, there’s quite literally no way you can weigh a loss to the Crimson Tide quite as heavily as a loss to Vanderbilt. So for that reason, after handling Auburn in Athens once again in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, the Dawgs jump back ahead of the Tide in the polls. 

Admittedly, it wasn’t always the prettiest effort for UGA in this matchup but it was more than enough to keep Auburn at bay. I continue to believe that Mike Bobo is holding Carson Beck and the offense back quite a bit by not running with more tempo consistently, which is when the offense has looked its best, but this team still has the look of a national title contender outside of their first half against Alabama that created too big of a hole to climb out of in that matchup.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 6: No. 2-1

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

It was always going to be a tricky balance for the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 6. On one hand, the Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t necessarily a team that can be taken lightly, even with a one-dimensional offense. On the other hand, the Buckeyes almost surely want to keep their cards close to the vest this week with a monumentally important matchup against the Oregon Ducks next week looming. 

No matter what strategy they deployed on Saturday, however, likely would’ve worked. The Ohio State defense remains what should be the calling card for this team (Jeremiah Smith aside) as they completely suffocated Kaleb Johnson and Iowa’s offense, cruising comfortably to a 35-7 week. It’s starting to feel like we haven’t even seen the Buckeyes unleash their biggest punches yet, which is scary considering just how dominant they’ve looked to this point.

1. Texas Longhorns

It certainly has to be a nice week to be a Texas Longhorn. The team got a week off to allow Quinn Ewers to likely get healthy and ready to return for the meat of the team’s SEC schedule, they are still perfect on the season despite having to play Arch Manning for two-plus games, and they’re also almost surely moving up to the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25. 

What really sets Texas apart to this point among the other top-ranked unbeatens in the country is the win over Michigan that they already have under their belt, not to mention a win that was earned handily. The Longhorns also are surely thankful for the bye before they go into a stretch that sees them play Red River against rival Oklahoma, host Georgia the following week, and now have what appears to be a much trickier matchup at Vanderbilt than previously expected the week after that.