College Football Playoff Panic-Meter: How worried should Alabama, Tennessee, more be?
By John Buhler
Not all losses are created equally, but they all hurt nevertheless. Week 6 may have been the wildest weekend up to this point in college football. Five of the top 11 teams in the country lost, and Miami nearly made it six with its close call to Cal in Berkeley. Yes, Alabama, Michigan, Missouri, Tennessee and USC all went down on Saturday. There are reasons to be concerned about all five teams now.
Entering the Saturday slate, all five of these teams were very much alive to make it into the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. While two are still very much alive, three are either on life support or essentially dead on arrival heading into Week 7. Once again, not all losses are created equally. This is also one of the strangely beautiful parts of college football, as so much is always up for debate.
So what I am going to do today is take a look at those five teams that were firmly ranked inside of the top 15 last week who lost and gauge what levels of panic their fan bases should be feeling right now. For some, things will get better. Georgia is not falling to pieces anymore after the Alabama loss. It could also get worse. Just look at what is happening to Florida State over in the ACC this season...
Let's start with a team that was ranked No. 1 for a grand total of one week, as they are going down!
Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1)
First, on top of the world; now, getting toppled on. This is the life the Alabama Crimson Tide may be living under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. They had the best win of anyone on the season last week by winning a barn burner at Tuscaloosa over Georgia. Fate would have it, they backed it up with another barn burner that went the other direction. The problem is they lost to Vanderbilt in Nashville...
Look. I think anyone who has followed college football closely over the last few years could tell you that Vanderbilt was quietly building something worth talking about under Clark Lea. When they landed former New Mexico State star Diego Pavia in the portal, along with his former Aggies head coach Jerry Kill, I had a feeling they become a giant slayer in the SEC this season. Well, it happened!
From an unbiased perspective, the Georgia win will serve Alabama more than the Vanderbilt loss. The Commodores might be good this season. The only real concern for the Crimson Tide is they have proven that they can get got by someone of substance on their SEC schedule. They could lose one more time, but may need to avoid falling to teams like Missouri and Tennessee to stay in the race.
Alabama Panic-Meter Rating: 3 out of 10
Michigan Wolverines (4-2)
Now at 4-2 on the season, I have grave concerns about the Michigan Wolverines' chances of making the College Football Playoff. What have you seen out of Sherrone Moore's team that leads you to believe they are indeed playoff-caliber? They play good defense, at times, and can run the football with conviction. Unfortunately, they are so one-dimensional offensively they can't play from behind.
In my estimation, Michigan really only has one pathway into the playoff now, and that is to win out. The good news for them is one of their two defeats on the year came to Texas, albeit at home in a blowout. That could be the team who ends up winning the national title. Although falling to Washington in Seattle is not ideal, it was only Michigan's first loss in conference play, so there's that.
Unfortunately, to be quite frank, the head-to-head tiebreaker over USC is not going to matter, as the Trojans have now suffered a second road loss in Big Ten play. Michigan still has to play several ranked teams the rest of the way. Ohio State and Oregon could be bludgeonings. Indiana and Illinois might hurt. Even Michigan State has shown just enough firepower offensively to where Sparty may prevail.
Michigan Panic-Meter Rating: 9 out of 10
Missouri Tigers (4-1)
It was only one loss for the Missouri Tigers, but it was an indictment of Eliah Drinkwitz and his coaching staff vs. Texas A&M. He seemed to be more concerned about keeping Marcel Reed's sister in the dark than actually getting his team ready to play. A few bad breaks early tipped this game forever in Texas A&M's favor. The Aggies are a real threat to make the playoff now. Missouri is not...
This is because the Tigers will need to win out to ensure themselves that they will be getting in at 11-1. They do not have the hardest schedule known to mankind, but they do have to face the likes of Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma the rest of the way. Right now, I would take the Crimson Tide and the Razorbacks over the Tigers. If they drop one more game, they should be one of the first four out.
My biggest concern for Mizzou right now, besides their rather soft schedule, is their offense seems to be incredibly one-dimensional. Unless Brady Cook can get the ball to Luther Burden III, Missouri struggles to move the sticks. Even more damning, their usually great defensive line is not that this season. The Texas A&M rushing attack ran through them like ish through a tin horn. Things are bad...
Missouri Panic-Meter Rating: 8 out of 10
Tennessee Volunteers: (4-1)
My greatest fear for the Tennessee Volunteers presented itself on Saturday night: I don't think Nico Iamaleava is ready to be a star in the SEC just yet. As the season progresses, he might be, but we clearly anointed him prematurely. I saw glimpses of this during the Oklahoma game a few weeks ago. Vol Nation was not a fan of my takes on the team. A better quarterback would have beaten Arkansas.
While I will say that the Tennessee defense seems to be legit, I wonder if more savvy defensive minds in the SEC have begun to figure out Josh Heupel's Air Raid offshoot. This offense doesn't translate to the NFL. More importantly, this was the third hardest game on Tennessee's schedule and the Vols blew it. If Iamaleava plays like this vs. either Alabama or Tennessee, this team isn't making the playoff.
Although Rocky Top is picking up the pieces after a tough road loss in Fayetteville, I still think they are going to be good enough to make the playoff at 10-2. This is because good enough will ... be good enough to get the No. 10 or No. 11 seed this year. Tennessee may still find a way to get to Atlanta, but this is looking more and more like a team that will be making the playoff out of the SEC as an at-large.
Tennessee Panic-Meter Rating: 5 out of 10
USC Trojans (3-2)
It is so over, it is ridiculous. No team that was ranked inside of the top 12 that lost over the weekend suffered a more brutal loss than the USC Trojans. Not only was this their second conference loss of the season, but Michigan also lost. The fact it was in the final seconds vs. Minnesota in Minneapolis pretty much puts a nail in the coffin of the Trojans' playoff dreams. I am so out on Lincoln Riley now...
His offense has been stagnant vs. Big Ten competition. Where is the running game? More importantly, where would this team be if it didn't have a great defensive coordinator in D'Anton Lynn? There is a reason why the Air Raid has never worked in the Big Ten before. It is not working in Madison and it is not going to work in Los Angeles. Riley needs to go more pro-style or he will be out of a job this year.
USC was always a fringe playoff contender out of the revamped Big Ten. The worst part is I drank the red Kool-Aid after the LSU win. I was all-in. Now, I am so disappointed. Not all 10-2's are created the same. This may be an 8-4 team. USC's schedule does not get any easier. If I were Jennifer Cohen, I would go hire a head coach who knows how to win in the Midwest because this where USC plays now.
Outside of a road game across town, I would say all of USC's remaining games are now losable.