College football rankings: Predicting what top-10 team will be unranked in final poll

The Associated Press has spoken! On Monday afternoon, the college football world received its guiding light, for now, in the form of the AP Top 25 Poll. I had several thoughts on the initial top 25, including Alabama being potentially overvalued, as well as teams on the outside looking in that I think could crack the top 25 at the end of the season. Today's exercise is all about doing the inverse of that.

As much as it may shock you to believe, Cole Cubelic is speaking the truth here. The college football analyst for ESPN pointed out over on X that in 18 of the last 20 seasons, at least one team ranked inside of the top 10 in the initial AP Top 25 Poll has gone on to finish the season unranked. Could this year be like the two that weren't? Could there be multiple teams the Associated Press got so wrong?

When we are talking about something that has happened 90 percent of the time, it feels significant.

For those who don't remember, here are the top 10 teams in the initial AP Top 25 Poll for the season.

1. Georgia Bulldogs
2. Ohio State Buckeyees
3. Oregon Ducks
4. Texas Longhorns
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
6. Ole Miss Rebels
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
8. Penn State Nittany Lions
9. Michigan Wolverines
10. Florida State Seminoles

While I am still trying to sort out a few of the Power Four leagues in Cody Williams and I's conference preview episodes for False Start, I would venture to guess that I will have between seven to nine of these teams projected to be College Football Playoff teams. A few of them are locks, as well as few that are almost locks. Then again, nothing in life is guaranteed except for death, taxes and change.

Let's try to cross off one team at a time before we get to our conclusion of who it is going to be.

College football rankings: What top-10 team will finish season unranked?

Let's be real. Any major injuries to key players of note could take a team with a national championship ceiling and knock them down to a borderline top-25 with an 8-4 record. These are kids, after all, so nothing is impossible. However, I would be utterly shocked if Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Ole Miss finish the season unranked. Those are probably the five teams I think can win it all this fall.

If I had to cross off two more teams to get us down to three, right now, I would probably say that woud have to be Penn State and Alabama, in that order. James Franklin is The Driver, and he will get his Nittany Lions to 10-2. While I really like Kalen DeBoer as a head coach, Alabama is different than Washington. Regardless, I think Alabama has too much talent to be worse than a top-20 this season.

And that leaves us with three: Florida State, Michigan and Notre Dame. I may be ridiculously high on Notre Dame, but they have historically far too often come up short in big spots. Marcus Freeman seems to be a strong head coach on the rise, but I would take every other coach leading a top-10 team over him, outside of Sherrone Moore. Notre Dame has an easy schedule, but cannot stumble either.

Since the Irish's schedule isn't that daunting, I would be shocked if they didn't go at least 9-3. Going 9-3 at Notre Dame doesn't get you into the expanded playoff, but it keeps you in the top 25. That leaves us with the great debate we are going to have between Florida State and Michigan. While I think Florida State has less room for error in a weak ACC, I am not entirely sure how good Michigan will be.

What I keep going back to is head coach and quarterback combination. Until proven otherwise, I am going to go with Mike Norvell and D.J. Uiagalelei over Sherrone Moore and Alex Orji. I may like Norvell way more as a coach than I do Uiagalelei as a quarterback, but I will never deny the talent DJU possesses. Moore could be a great head coach one day, but I have never seen Orji throw a football.

While I would be shocked to see Florida State be any worse than a top-four team in the new ACC, I would have Michigan slotted as the fifth or sixth-best team in the Big Ten right now behind Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and USC for sure, right there with Iowa. The Hawkeyes are properly ranked at No. 25. I would have had the Wolverines ranked somewhere in the teens, probably around a top-15 team.

Like Alabama, Michigan is an obvious pullback candidate, but its regression is probably more severe.