Craig Counsell’s blind faith in Hector Neris should hopefully come to screeching halt

The Chicago Cubs are, somehow, third place in the NL Central. After a brief glimmer of hope, the Wild Card is feeling less likely by the day. It's not impossible — Chicago is 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in that third slot — but Craig Counsell's club has struggled to meet expectations all season. At 61-64, the Cubs are among the most disappointing teams in the sport.

Counsell inked the largest manager contract in MLB history over the winter. He was supposed to help the Cubs level up after narrowly missing the postseason in 2023. Chicago brought back Cody Bellinger, paid Shota Imanaga, and then acquired Isaac Paredes at the trade deadline. For once, we can't really blame the Cubs' struggles on Jed Hoyer.

Okay, maybe that's not true. There are neglected holes in Chicago's roster. Hoyer has missed his share of opportunities, and not every Cubs fan was in favor of his unexpected spending spree at the deadline. But, frankly, this roster should be better than it is. The failure rests primarily with the players who are underperforming (see: Swanson, Dansby) and the manager, who has not lived up to his billing.

Counsell was lauded for his ability to navigate matchups and orchestrate a bullpen. His bullpen choices with the Cubs have been absolutely maddening. Injuries have limited his choices, but we can point to Hector Neris as a prime example of Counsell's inability to evolve and adjust over the course of this season.

Neris has appeared in 45 games to date, many of them in ninth-inning save opportunities. That is despite a noticeable drop-off in impact from the 35-year-old, who is on track for a new career high in the walk department.

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Cubs need to curtail Hector Neris' usage down the stretch

There are baseball reasons for Counsell to stop leaning so heavily on Neris, but he does not appear amenable to such a strategy. After a particularly rough ninth inning in Friday's extra-innings victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, in which Neris allowed four hits and three earned runs, this is what Counsell said to reporters.

Not exactly a condemnation.

There are also non-baseball reasons (or at least, more baseball adjacent reasons) to bench Neris. There is no way the Cubs just stop playing Neris, but he should probably appear in fewer games moving forward. It all comes down to his contract.

Chicago inked Neris to a one-year, $9 million contract with a $9 million club option for the 2025 campaign. As is, there's no way the Cubs bring Neris back. Not at that price point. If Neris appears in 60 games, however, his option vests and it becomes a player option, essentially locking Neris' $9 million into the Cubs' cap sheet for next season.

Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation does an excellent job of outlining the Cubs' predicament.

"First, you could look at the last month and a half of usage to estimate the next month and a half: 14 appearances," writes Taylor. "Eesh. That’s close. Second, you could look at the number of games the Cubs have remaining and eyeball it: 39 games left, so that’s him pitching a little more than once every third game. Again, eesh. That’s really close. Third, you could look at just a pure ratio and say he’s appeared in 45 games out of 123 for the Cubs this year, which translates to 59.2 appearances over 162 games. EESH. IT’S STILL LANDING RIGHT THERE AT THE CLOSE MARK. THIS IS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT."

Basically, Neris is currently on track to play around 59 games. That would be perfect, but that is a little "TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT," to quote Taylor. Chicago shouldn't let Craig Counsell proceed without a clear directive from upper management. Unless the Cubs end up in the postseason mix by some miracle, Neris' usage should be scaled back (or, at the very least, not scaled up) down the stretch.

If Neris was dealing, that would be another story. The Cubs paid him $9 million for a reason, because Neris has earned it through years of late-game excellence. This season, however, has been a struggle. Neris is in the third percentile for walks and his strikeouts are way down. The stuff just isn't where it normally is, or where it used to be.

It's time for the Cubs to proceed accordingly.