Most disastrous first round playoff matchup for every NBA team

The playoffs are still a month away but the races are coming into focus and potential matchups are taking shape. The best of the best fear no one but every team has an opponent who always seems to give them trouble. Here are the teams each contender is probably hoping to avoid.

Boston Celtics worst matchup: Miami Heat

The Boston Celtics are a historically dominant regular-season team and will likely enter the playoffs as the favorite. They are deep and balanced and, if healthy, fairly immune to being exploited by specific matchups. Where they are most vulnerable is against another veteran team, one who won't be intimidated by their regular season record, one who won't be afraid of the moment and is willing to sacrifice anything to grind out four wins in any way possible — a team like the Miami Heat.

The Heat are currently the No. 8 seed in the East so their final seed could be determined in the Play-In Tournament. If that's how things play out the Celtics should definitely be rooting for Miami to finish anywhere but No. 8.

Milwaukee Bucks worst matchup: Indiana Pacers

The Bucks are a different team than they were early in the season but they haven't adapted away all their vulnerabilities. And no one has played the Bucks better this year than the Indiana Pacers who, thanks to the NBA In-Season Tournament have already played Milwaukee five times, coming away with four wins.

The Bucks may actually welcome a series against the Pacers, currently the No. 7 seed, and an opportunity at redemption. But Tyrese Haliburton was a nightmare for them to guard and the speed and relentless transition pushes of Indiana's offense should five the Bucks defense everything they can handle.

Cleveland Cavaliers worst matchup: Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers are currently the No. 6 seed and could slip into the Play-In Tournament if they're not careful. But, if Joel Embiid is healthy enough to return in time for the playoffs they're an entirely different team and one who could challenge anyone in the East.

Before Embiid's knee injury, he was playing like an MVP, even better than last season and the 76ers were among the best teams in the conference. They have multiple strong perimeter defenders to throw at Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They can batter Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley into foul trouble and submission with Embiid's bulk. And they have the experience and championship focus to suffer setbacks and keep the ultimate goal in mind.

New York Knicks worst matchup: Philadelphia 76ers

Again, this depends on Embiid's health, but if he's on the court the 76ers might be the third-best team in the conference and are certainly the most dangerous team in the bottom half of the playoff bracket. The Knicks only played the 76ers once this season when Embiid was healthy and were able to come away with a blowout win thinks to a lot of forced turnovers and some uncharacteristically from the supporting cast — 6-of-23 from beyond the arc.

But the Knicks aren't in the same tier of contenders as Milwaukee and Boston are much more susceptible to being beaten by overwhelming talent than specific mismatches being exploited. Embiid is that talent deficit and facing him healthy in the first-round is the worst-case scenario for New York.

Oklahoma City Thunder worst matchup: Phoenix Suns

The bottom of the Western Conference playoff bracket is filled with teams who entered the season with championship aspirations, a few of which are still holding onto them. But the truth is, I don't think anyone is all that scared of the Lakers or Warriors, at this point, and the elite shotmaking of teams like the Suns and Mavericks may be more of a challenge than the high-level depth of teams like the Kings or Pelicans.

For the Thunder, the Suns may be the worst matchup. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have to exert a lot of effort on defense, dealing with either Bradley Beal or Devin Booker. Jusuf Nurkic has the bulk to batter Chet Holmgren on the boards and exploit one of OKC's biggest weaknesses. I think the Thunder would still feel confident in this first-round matchup, but it would be dangerous nonetheless.

Denver Nuggets worst matchup: Dallas Mavericks

Honestly, I don't think the Nuggets care who they face. They have a title under their belt and seem to have adopted Nikola Jokic's intrinsic nonchalance as their approach to competition. They trust themselves. They trust their depth. They trust their talent. They trust their system.

I don't think any teams in the West can shake that, but Luka Doncic might be able to do it individually. In terms of singular impact and dominance, he might be the only player on this side of the bracket capable of consistently rising to Jokic's level. They have defenders they can throw at him and their own superstar to lean on but Doncic playing superman seems like the most plausible (if highly unlikely) scenario for the Nuggets getting upset in the first-round.

Minnesota Timberwolves worst matchup: Phoenix Suns

The Timberwolves have thrived with their defense this season but the Suns present an incredible challenge. They have two of the best mid-range shooters in the game, in Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, who will be happy to take space ceded by Rudy Gobert in drop coverage for easy pull-ups. With Royce O'Neale, the Suns also have a dedicated defender they can just throw out Anthony Edwards trusting that he'll make it just difficult enough for him to let their offense carry the day.

If Karl-Anthony Towns is healthy, this might be a very different matchup. But if the Timberwolves need to win with Gobert and Edwards, then Booker, Durant, Beal, Nurkic and O'Neale are a nightmare matchup.

Los Angeles Clippers worst matchup: Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has had his way with the Clippers in the past and while they have a pair of elite defenders to throw at Luka Doncic — Paul George and Kawhi Leonard — asking either of those stars to bear the burden of dealing with Doncic for 40 minutes per game is a serious burden with offensive consequences.

The Clippers may need to either let Doncic do his thing, to some degree or leave a lot more scoring responsibility in the hands of James Harden, which hasn't always been a recipe for playoff success. In theory, the Clippers seem like they have everything you would need to slow down a Doncic-led team but he presents such a unique burden it could be enough to break them.

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QUICK HITTER: Jalen Green's irrational confidence

Jalen Green has, generally, been playing extremely well of late — winning NBA Player of the Week last week and averaging 27.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game over his last 10 games, shooting 40.2 percent from beyond the arc.

But looking at his season as a whole, we still see him struggling with some of the same issues — poor decision-making, questionable shot selection and a perhaps unjustified confidence in his own shot-making ability. Across the entire season, Green is shooting just 32.7 percent from beyond the arc, continuing a downward trend in his 3-point numbers in each of his three seasons in the NBA.

As Todd Whitehead recently pointed out, Steph Curry is the only player in the league more likely to attempt a pull-up 3-pointer when a defender goes under a screen against them. But Green is no Steph Curry.

He's shooting 33.1 percent on pull-up 3s this year, fourth-worst among the 34 players who have attempted at least 150 pull-up 3s this season, ahead of only Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey and Cam Thomas. Again, Green is playing well and has absurd potential, but he's still playing in a way that isn't entirely justified by the results.

The Whiteboard: Most disastrous first round playoff matchup for every team

By Ian Levy | Mar 20, 2024