5 NBA Draft sleepers who can leap into first round with strong March Madness

The 2024 NBA Draft features a greater balance of talent than we're used to. There isn't a clear option at the top and frankly, that uncertainty stretches to all corners of the draft class. There is a ton of room for strong March Madness performers to elevate their stock and meaningfully change their fortunes.

Whether it's the late-blooming freshman or the long-established college star, there will be at least a few prospects who fully break out on NBA radars over the next month. Our task here at FanSided is to project who it might be.

It's pointless to assign specific criteria to this list, but generally, we are taking into account projections from experts across the draft sphere, in addition to our own prospect rankings and mock drafts.

The goal is to highlight players consistently receiving second-round grades — or prospects currently not expected to declare for the 2024 draft — who have a chance to ascend the ladder in short order. Here we go...

5. Oregon's Kwame Evans Jr. checks too many NBA boxes

Kwame Evans Jr. has been buried in the rotation at times for Oregon, but the Ducks enter the tournament with considerable momentum as Pac-12 champs. Evans' Pac-12 finale was nothing to write home about, but he continues to contribute in enough small ways to capture the imagination of scouts. If Oregon can go from bid thief to Cinderella, Evans could earn enough of the spotlight to accelerate his NBA Draft timeline.

At 6-foot-9, the former five-star recruit checks all the physical boxes. He needs to add muscle to his frame, same as most 19-year-old forwards, but the defensive versatility is considerable. Evans supplies tremendous activity on that end, averaging 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks in 21.8 minutes. He can switch screens, create havoc as a roamer, and disrupt shots around the rim with his 7-foot wingspan.

The offensive skill package is equally intriguing. Evans hasn't stabilized the 3-point shot yet (27.4 percent), but he averages 2.1 attempts per game. As those shots start to fall, more value can be derived from his fluid straight-line drives and underrated passing chops. Teams want bigs who can shoot, finish, and make quick decisions in the flow of the offense. Evans' 78.4 percent free throw clip provides a solid foundation for optimism as he attempts to extend his range comfortably behind the 3-point line.

Oregon has to compete in order for Evans to get this extended runway to showcase his skill set. There is very little guaranteed here, which could end up with Evans back in school for a more productive sophomore season. But, if the Ducks stay hot and Evans gets a chance to showcase his skill set, NBA front offices will pay attention.

4. Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic is about to become a household name

Few teams are better equipped for a deep run than Big 12 champs Iowa State. A driving force behind the Cyclones' dominant 69-41 win over Houston in the conference title game was Milan Momcilovic, the 6-foot-8 freshman who has been flying under radars for far too long. In such a weak class, NBA teams should naturally gravitate toward the ultra-skilled wing with Momcilovic's scoring repertoire.

He doesn't provide much support on defense beyond his positional size, but Momcilovic is a nutty shooter. At his size, that alone carries a ton of weight. He's shooting 35.9 percent from 3-point range on 4.6 attempts. Not elite, but factoring in Momcilovic's penchant for off-kilter shots — running off screens or falling sideways — it's certainly not bad. Touch is the key shooting indicator, and Momcilovic has it in spades.

Inside the arc, it's a treat to watch Momcilovic systematically demolish defenders. He is arguably the best tough shot-maker on the board. Whether it's a one-legged fade in the post or a contested mid-range jumper facing up, Momcilovic has a special talent for simply shooting over top of the defense. He doesn't need much space or a particularly great look at the rim to find his angle and launch.

NBA teams will want to see him improve as a passer while cutting out some of the more ill-advised attempts, but the 19-year-old has a great foundation to work with skill-wise. Momcilovic has been thought of as a 2025 draft pick for a while, but frankly, he should get first-round buzz right now. Especially if he can lead Iowa State deep into March.

3. Kentucky's D.J. Wagner can still make it happen in 2024

It has been a rocky freshman campaign for Kentucky's D.J. Wagner, who was sold as a potential top-10 pick before the season. Wagner has maintained the Wildcats' starting point guard role despite the superior play of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard off the bench. John Calipari deserves credit for keeping the faith with Wagner — he has improved drastically since the beginning of the season — but at the same time, it will take a Herculean March for Wagner to fully reward that faith.

Don't count him out, though. Teams will gladly bet on upside in such a weak class and Wagner still offers plenty as a five-star freshman starting for a top-3 seed. He's a walking paint touch, deploying twitchy handles and a deadly first step to beat his defender and manufacture rim pressure. Wagner has been playmaking for teammates at a respectable level, averaging 3.3 assists to only 1.5 turnovers.

The lack of 3-point success (30.4 percent) is a huge concern, especially considering Wagner's thin frame. He's also a below-the-rim finisher, reliant on footwork and craftiness to find scoring angles. Wagner struggled as a finisher early in the season. He has settled into a better groove, and there's no doubt about his ability to penetrate the heart of the defense. But, how his scoring translates against NBA-level rim protection is an open-ended question.

Wagner probably doesn't project as a full-time NBA starter, much less the leader of a franchise, but he can create fissures in the defense and generate opportunities with his quickness. If Wagner can string together a few scoring outbursts in March, he's probably going to come off the board in the first round.

2. Purdue's Zach Edey needs a deep run to cement his legacy

The Purdue Boilermakers became the second No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to the No. 16 seed last season. Flash forward, and the Boilermakers are the No. 1 seed again. Zach Edey, like last season, is going to win National Player of the Year. There is immense pressure on Purdue to buck their recent trend and deliver on college basketball's biggest stage.

How the next few days or weeks go for Edey could very well determine his NBA Draft stock. The raw production is undeniable. He is the single most dominant force in college basketball, averaging 24.4 points and 11.7 rebounds on 61.9 percent shooting. But, Edey is a throwback stylistically, and there is a (completely fair) segment of the NBA Draft community that is concerned about how exactly he will translate to the modern NBA.

Those concerns would be largely wiped away if Purdue wins the tournament behind a transcendent stretch from Edey. But, if Purdue gets thwacked early because it's hard to run offense through the post on this stage, well... we can probably move Edey out of the first round on mock drafts.

It's difficult to peg which NBA team should use its first-round pick on the 7-foot-4, 300-pound center whose game revolves around post-ups. Edey has improved as a passer and even flashed potential as a shooter, but he has always buttered his bread with brute-force scoring on the block. There's no doubt that he can finish with touch, exploit mismatches, and protect the rim. But what happens when he's asked to defend in space? What happens when defenses crank up the pressure in a postseason setting? These are questions Edey needs to answer.

1. Marquette's Tyler Kolek is built for the March Madness stage

The hallmark of the NCAA Tournament is the scrappy senior point guard who just understands intrinsically how to play the game. Marquette table-setter Tyler Kolek isn't a particularly great athlete. He won't get by on blistering speed or vertical pop. In fact, at 6-foot-3, he doesn't really possess any of the outlier physical attributes NBA teams look for in the first round.

What Kolek can do is, well, play basketball. The dude is the closest you'll find to basketball genius status in college basketball. He is a pick-and-roll savant, having mastered what is quite possibly the most important action in today's NBA. Kolek manipulates defenders with sly handles, plays with a tremendous sense of pace, and is comfortable delivering high-level passes with either hand.

He's more than a passer too, hitting 40.0 percent of his 3s and averaging a healthy 15.0 points as the leader of Marquette's offense. Kolek can spray pull-up 3s, finish with touch shots around the rim, and offer enough competitive fervor on the other end to round out a pretty good first-round case. There are concerns tied to his defense and the limitations of his athletic profile, but if Kolek can return from injury to lead the Golden Bears deep into March, those concerns will melt away.

More and more, NBA teams are striking gold on guards who dominate with skill, rather than physical gifts. That's not to say frame, agility, and explosiveness aren't important — SGA is 6-foot-6, Jalen Brunson is strong as an ox, so these guys aren't complete nothings in the athletic department — but high-feel players who elevate teammates and limit mistakes tend to carve out a role in the league. You don't need to be the fastest or the most explosive.

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