Each NFL team's updated chances of making the playoffs after Week 5
By Luke Norris
The 2024 NFL season has been wild thus far, and Week 5 was certainly no different.
The week started, of course, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers essentially handing a victory to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, and things just continued from there.
The Sunday slate was full of fantastic finishes, as eight of the 12 contests were decided by a single score.
Arguably the most exciting of the bunch was the matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, which essentially turned into a "see if you can top this" duel between Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, who combined to throw for 740 yards and nine touchdowns. The Ravens ultimately walked away with a 41-38 overtime win, improving to 3-2, while the Bengals dropped to 1-4.
Teams with four losses after the first five weeks don't typically contend for spots in the NFL Playoffs, which is why the Bengals' odds of making the postseason is just 15 percent, according to Playoff Status.
Only four teams, those being the Cleveland Browns (14 percent), Jacksonville Jaguars (12 percent), Los Angeles Rams (12 percent), and Carolina Panthers (7 percent) have worse odds. Of those three teams, only the Jaguars earned a victory in Week 5, picking up their first of the year with a 37-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts. But it certainly didn't help Jacksonville (or Indy, for that matter) that the Houston Texans improved to 4-1 with a hard-fought 23-20 win over the Buffalo Bills.
Let's see how the rest of the league stacks up after a wild Week 5.
NFL playoff probabilities after Week 5
Here's a look at the postseason odds for all 32 NFL teams. It should be noted that this chart does not yet reflect the result from the Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints.
Team | Record | NFL Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | 4-0 | 94% |
Minnesota Vikings | 5-0 | 93% |
Houston Texans | 4-1 | 88% |
Washington Commanders | 4-1 | 69% |
Buffalo Bills | 3-2 | 67% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-2 | 65% |
Baltimore Ravens | 3-2 | 62% |
Denver Broncos | 3-2 | 60% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-2 | 58% |
Detroit Lions | 3-1 | 56% |
Atlanta Falcons | 3-2 | 54% |
Seattle Seahawks | 3-2 | 54% |
Dallas Cowboys | 3-2 | 47% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 2-2 | 47% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 2-2 | 44% |
Green Bay Packers | 3-2 | 44% |
New York Jets | 2-3 | 41% |
Chicago Bears | 3-2 | 38% |
New Orleans Saints | 2-2 | 37% |
Indianapolis Colts | 2-3 | 36% |
Arizona Cardinals | 2-3 | 35% |
Miami Dolphins | 2-3 | 34% |
New York Giants | 2-3 | 29% |
Las Vegas Raiders | 2-3 | 29% |
San Francisco 49ers | 2-3 | 22% |
Tennessee Titans | 1-3 | 20% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 1-4 | 15% |
New England Patriots | 1-4 | 15% |
Cleveland Browns | 1-4 | 14% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-4 | 12% |
Los Angeles Rams | 1-4 | 12% |
Carolina Panthers | 1-4 | 7% |
As for Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs lead the way, as the defending champs have a 31 percent chance of making the Big Game and a 17 percent chance of winning it. The Vikings are right behind, with a 28 percent chance to make their first title game in 48 years and a 16 percent chance to win it.
The Texans sit in solo third, with an 18 percent chance to make the game and a 9 percent chance to win it. The surprising 4-1 Washington Commanders are in second among NFC teams, holding a 13 percent to play for the Lombardi Trophy and a 7 percent chance to win it.
feed