Early Notre Dame bowl projections for 2024: Are Irish projected to make CFP?
Notre Dame notched a much-needed quality win on Saturday, outlasting No. 22 Louisville in a wet and wild affair in South Bend. That's now three solid performances in a row for Marcus Freeman's squad since the disaster against Northern Illinois, and the Irish are certainly trending in the right direction: The defense remains as sturdy as ever, and Riley Leonard and OC Mike Dembrock seem to be getting more comfortable every week.
But while that improvement is nice, will it be too little too late for Notre Dame's hopes of making the College Football Playoff? Competition for an at-large spot in the new 12-team format figures to be fierce as we head down the stretch, and that NIU loss still looms large. That black mark, as well as a closing schedule that doesn't provide many chances for statement wins save for USC, has most bowl projections skeptical of the Irish's chances of getting into the field.
2024 Notre Dame bowl projections: Irish on outside of playoff picture
In a survey of five major bowl projections, none had Notre Dame as a playoff team. Instead, all of them had the Irish ticketed for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, one of the ACC's tie-ins.
Outlet | Bowl | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
Erick Smith, USA Today | Pop-Tarts | Texas Tech |
Brett McMurphy, Action Network | Pop-Tarts | BYU |
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN | Pop-Tarts | Kansas State |
Mark Schlabach, ESPN | Pop-Tarts | Iowa State |
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports | Pop-Tarts | Oklahoma State |
Based on these projections, it's clear that Clemson's reemergence in recent weeks looms as a potential problem for Notre Dame; all five had the Tigers earning an at-large spot. That would give the ACC a second team, which, combined with four for the SEC (Alabama, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee all seem like very good bets right now), three for the Big 10 (Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State) plus the Big 12 and Group of 5 champions, means the math gets tight in a hurry. Unless one of the above teams stumbles in a major way, the Irish figure to be fighting for the final at-large bid, and at that point the margin for error would be razor-thin.
All is not lost, of course. There's a ton of football left to be played, and there are bound to be upsets we can't possibly see coming right now. Win out, including wins over a potential top-10 or top-15 team in USC and a potential Group of 5 Playoff team in Navy, and Notre Dame would certainly have a chance. Right now, though, the Irish are in need of a little bit of chaos to shake things up.
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