EuroLeague Week 18 Winners and Losers: Predicting the rest of the 2023-24 EuroLeague season

After spending some time in Spain to get a live look at some of EuroLeague’s best this season, we’re back with our regular FanSided coverage. We’re through 26 rounds of EuroLeague play and while five teams have seasons that are all but decided — Real Madrid and Barcelona at the top and Crvena Zvezda, ALBA Berlin, and LDLC ASVEL at the bottom — plenty is up for grabs for 13 other EuroLeague clubs. We evaluated each team's remaining schedule and made our picks for how the final standings will shake out. 

We factored in current form, home and away, and of course the strength of their opponents. It’s also important to note that for efficiency, we made some assumptions. Most games against Real Madrid are assumed to be losses, Barcelona is in a similar boat but not entirely. On the flip side, most games against ASVEL and ALBA Berlin are assumed to be wins. Any of these games shaking out another way, which some will, could have a significant impact on final standings.

Finally, you’ll see us talk about “tough games remaining.” What’s important to note is that we are defining a tough game as essentially a game that’s tough to pick a winner. Essentially, ALBA and ASVEL are not tough games, and neither are Real Madrid or Barcelona because those are probably losses. 

EuroLeague Week 18 Winners and Losers: Predicting the end of the EuroLeague regular season based on remaining schedule

15. Bayern Munich

Projected Final Record: 13-21

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Bayern Munich has been inconsistent all season, and while the talent is there for this roster they are still yet to string together a run of games that’s been impressive. Their run of games for Round 27-33 is insane. They’ve got four straight borderline do-or-die games against Efes on the road, red-hot Zalgiris at home, Valencia away, and then Maccabi at home. After that, they are greeted by Barcelona and Panathinaikos at home, and Monaco on the road to close the season. 

Their most recent road victory over Partizan Belgrade shows they do have some dog in them, but we’d still be surprised if they’re able to pull six wins out of their final eight games, and that’s what they need at this point. This is only the first season of the Pablo Laso era, and it would not be surprising if this team finds the rhythm to comfortably make the top eight next season.

14. Valencia

Projected Final Record: 15-19

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Valencia got off to a hot start and never found that groove again. Their defense and physicality continue to give them what they need to hang with anyone on any given night, but their offense can be best described as dull and flat. 

Of their remaining tough games, three are on the road including a season-ender at Partizan. The two home games are Barcelona and Bayern. We’ve got them winning the latter, not the former. 

Valencia is good, but in EuroLeague, good is rarely good enough. If they can add a true wing-scoring threat next season while retaining most of this roster they could be scary. Without that, they’ll have to continue to grind out wins which is rarely a successful approach in EuroLeague. 

13. Milano

Projected Final Record: 15-19

Tough Games Remaining: 6

A strange summer brought a slow start for this Olimpia Milano side, and when they found their rhythm and brought Shabazz Napier back they had injuries to key players like Nikola Mirotic. This has simply been one of those seasons loaded with misfortune, and their final eight games aren’t setting the table for a change in luck. 

Of their six remaining tough games, three are on the road: Baskonia, Zalgiris, and then Maccabi to close the season. They’ve got Partizan, Fenerbahce, and Bologna at home. A 3-3 split on those seems likely, and with the other two games coming against ASVEL and Monaco, 4-4 basketball to end the season is probably what Milano is looking at and that’s not going to get them into the play-in. If they can win two of their three tough road games, they might squeeze in but this season hasn’t given them any breaks. Why would it now?

12. Anadolu Efes

Projected Final Record: 15-19

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Of their five tough remaining home games, they’ve got visits to Partizan, Baskonia, and Fenerbahce. Winning tough games away from home has not been this team's forte all season and they also fired their coach, Erdem Can. Father Time is undefeated, and after two straight seasons without playoff basketball, it seems like Efes may have been conquered by the eternal foe like many others before them. 

11. Baskonia

Projected Final Record: 17-17

Tough Games Remaining: 6

If it goes this way, this one will sting the people of Vitoria like many other seasons have this century. And their 1-4 start before bringing in Dusko Ivanovic will continue to haunt them. This current projected finish has Baskonia out on a tiebreaker, with Zalgiris and Partizan squeezing ahead of them. 

If the Basque side wants to change their fortunes, they need to beat either of these teams on the road, mainly Partizan. A win in Belgrade will give them the tiebreaker and send them into the play-in, against Zalgiris they’ll need to win by more than 17 to get the edge over Andrea Trinchieri’s side. Their Round 30 matchup against Partizan has the making to be the game of the season. Buckle up for that next chapter of Ivanovic vs. Zeljko Obradovic. 

10. Zalgiris

Projected Final Record: 17-17

Tough Games Remaining: 8

Trinchieri has Zalgiris looking incredible over their last few games, and if they’re going to complete this miraculous turnaround to their season and grab the final playoff spot it’s going to take elite, top-level performance in all eight of their remaining games. 

They do have space for two losses and are blessed with five of their last eight games being at home and incredibly blessed not to face Real Madrid until Round 34 where Los Blancos may decide to coast and rest their stars. Even with those blessings, they can only afford to lose two of their three away games: Maccabi, Bayern, and Monaco. 

Picking a 6-2 finish in eight tough games from a team with a current win percentage of 42 may sound crazy, but Trinchier has already brought them back from the dead. Who’s to say they can’t keep fighting? 

9. Partizan

Projected Final Record: 17-17

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Partizan has only won three of their last ten games and has been awful on the road this season: 3-11. Fortunately, they’ve got five home games remaining and a road game against ALBA Berlin. If they can’t win five of those games to get themselves in the play-in it’s an embarrassment. Simple as that. 

8. Maccabi Tel Aviv

Projected Final Record: 18-16

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Maccabi’s lack of home court makes the rest of their season very difficult to predict but we gave it our best shot. If they can win three tough home games against Zalgiris, Valencia, and Milano in the season finale then all they have to do is make sure they take care of business against ALBA Berlin and ASVEL. That gives them 18 wins and the eighth seed. 

7. Virtus Bologna

Projected Final Record: 20-14

Tough Games Remaining: 6

Last season, it was Baskonia who looked like a EuroLeague Final Four lock heading into the second half of the season and then came crashing down to reality. Bologna’s drop-off doesn’t look like it will be as steep, but it’s still significant. 

Their closing schedule is no joke: Valencia at home, Olympiacos away, Real Madrid at home, Zalgiris away, Crvena Zvezda away, Panathinaikos at home, Milano away, and Baskonia at home. There’s not one easy game in there, and that’s why we have them going 4-4 to end the season which will have them comfortably atop the play-in but out of the top-six. Harsh, but that’s EuroLeague. 

6. Fenerbahce

Projected Final Record: 20-14

Tough Games Remaining: 5

The Jasikevicius spark from when he took over and a fairly smooth final eight games should give this team enough to avoid the play-in. They’ve got three tough home games to win: Baskonia, Barcelona, and Efes. If they do that, they’ve got the tiebreaker over Bologna and should be fine. But a loss in one of those three will call for a road win against Milano or Olympiacos, and that means they could fall into the play-in. 

5. Panathinaikos

Projected Final Record: 21-13

Tough Games Remaining: 5

Ergin Ataman has the Greens ready to compete for the EuroLeague Final Four, back where they belong at minimum. Their end-of-season schedule isn’t the easiest, but road wins against Red Star and Bayern and a home win against Barcelona should get them into fifth place and set up the playoff matchup we are all dying to see. 

4. Olympiacos

Projected Final Record: 21-13

Tough Games Remaining: 6

Can Athens handle an Olympiacos vs. Panathinaikos playoff series? Can EuroLeague? Can we? This will likely be one of the greatest playoff series in the history of the competition if we get it, will probably end with a do-or-die Game 5 at Olympiacos Peace and Friendship Arena, and deliver a spectacle that reminds us all why we love EuroLeague basketball. 

Of course, this series isn’t a lock. For starters, we’ve got one more Greek derby during the season with Olympiacos hosting Panathinaikos. They need to avoid a loss by more than 10 points to hold the tiebreaker over their rivals. We’re also betting on Georgios Bartzokas’ side getting road wins over Efes and Crvena Zvezda. Those aren’t crazy bets, but the Reds haven’t been world-beaters away from home this season, to say the least. 

Regardless of who you’re rooting for, a Greek derby playoff series is what we all dream about. (Or at least I do, the rest of you are probably normal and dream about non-basketball things.)

3. AS Monaco

Projected Final Record: 23-11

Tough Games Remaining: 0

The zero tough games remaining thing is not a typo. Monaco has Barcelona away for their next game. Yes, that’s probably a loss. Here’s what’s next: Red Star at home, ALBA away, Milano at home, Valencia at home, ASVEL away, and then Zalgiris and Bayern at home. They should go 7-0 to close the season, no joke. Now a playoff series against Fenerbahce should go the distance and will be far from a walk in the park, but they should be strolling into that matchup, to say the least. 

Those are our final projections. Should things shake out this way we will primarily be upset we didn’t bet on this somehow, and we’ll also pick Barcelona to win the EuroLeague championship. We’ve got them beating Panathinaikos in the championship game after beating Fenerbahce in the EuroLeague Final Four, who we have upset Real Madrid in the other semifinal. If you disagree, that’s fair, you probably should. This is almost impossible to predict anyway, but it’s fun to try.