EuroLeague Week 26 Winners and Losers: EuroLeague Playoff Previews and Predictions

The eight teams and matchups are settled, and the EuroLeague playoffs are here. After last week’s Play-In tournament which brought plenty of great drama with Virtus Bologna getting a tough win on the road over Anadolu Efes thanks to more clutch magic from Iffe Lundberg, and then another big game from Markus Howard to give Baskonia a win over Bologna, we’ve got our four playoff series. 

Three of these series should be highly competitive and are almost coin flips with either team capable of winning depending on who steps up and who doesn’t. They could all go five games, and potentially deliver some all-time playoff moments. Here are our picks and things to watch for each series. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Winners and Losers: Real Madrid should comfortably dispatch Baskonia in four games at most

With all due respect to Baskonia whose playoff qualification equates to a very successful season, it’s highly unlikely they can beat Real Madrid in a best-of-five series or even take them to five games. Baskonia has given Real Madrid problems and tends to always play them close, but this is the playoffs, and Real Madrid wants to get past this series and get on with the EuroLeague Final Four. 

Los Blancos need to figure out how they’re covering Markus Howard - Mario Hezonja is not the answer, we learned that in Round 33 — and how they want to deal with Matt Costello's pick-and-pops but that’s it for challenges. Howard is a notable challenge, he’s been arguably the best scorer in Europe over the past couple of months, playing like EuroLeague’s version of Steph Curry, and for Baskonia to have any chance of winning this series he’ll need to ramp up his play to another level. 

Madrid should put their players who are best at navigating screens on Howard, which means Facundo Campazzo, Sergio Llull, Fabian Causeur, and some of their other smaller players. Chase Howard over the top, run him off the 3 and push him to the paint. His floater has gotten better, and he may still score a decent chunk of points from there, but Edy Tavares and Vincent Poirier will alter enough shots and even if they don’t, two is still less than three. 

Baskonia needs to lean into Howard’s offense as they have during this historic stretch he’s on. Dusko Ivanovic is clearly comfortable with any shot Howard wants to take, as are his teammates. Still, the Basque club will need others to step up and capitalize on the gravity and attention Howard draws. Tadas Sedekerskis, Matt Costello, Codi Miller-McIntyre, Nikos Rogkavopolous (who has been great in the second half of the season), Vanja Marinkovic, and Chima Moneke if he’s healthy need to all be ready to make plays. Rogkavopolous, Marinkovic, and Costello need to knock down catch and shoot threes. Moneke and Sedekerskis need to also protect the backboards and cut to the rim. Miller-McIntyre needs to orchestrate it all and get Baskonia out in transition as much as he can. 

That all needs to go right for Baskonia in this series, and for a team that has struggled with consistency all season, it seems unlikely that they will. Real Madrid should have too much talent here, will punish Baskonia switches, and keep them off the offensive glass. If they do all that, Howard's heroics probably wouldn’t be enough. We’ve got Madrid in four out of respect for Howard, but a sweep would not surprise us. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Winners and Losers: The Kendrick Nunn and Wade Baldwin matchup should go the distance, with the Greens coming out on top

This series has the makings of a great one. Two players actively trash-talking each other in Nunn and Baldwin. Arguably the two frontrunners for Coach of the Year, and the fourth-best offense versus the number one defense. Making a prediction here isn’t easy, but we’re going to try anyway. 

Maccabi beat Panathinaikos in both their meetings this season — including a Round 3 win at the OAKA where the Greens hadn’t quite found their footing yet — and most recently in Round 23 by a score of 90-75. Maccabi’s physicality, something they have struggled with all season, stood out in this game. They match Panathinaikos assertiveness and while they still gave up too many offensive rebounds they were switching, doubling, and rotating well. They didn’t give up any easy buckets and that will be a key for them throughout this series. 

Both teams will likely start each game with their conventional starting lineups: Lorenzo Brown, Baldwin, Bonzie Colson, Jake Cohen, and Josh Nebo for Maccabi. Nunn, Jerian Grant, Marius Grigonis, Dinos Mitoglou, and Matthias Lessort for Panathinaikos. All the initial matchups from here should be fairly straightforward, but how they’ll cover each other's pick-and-roll and the selectivity of where they switch and where they don’t will be interesting for both teams. 

Against Grant, Maccabi primarily opted for drop coverage in their Round 23 matchup. This will likely be their consistent approach. Grant can score against drop, and he will — he knocks down mid-range jumpers and floaters and can toss lobs to Lessort and Kosta Antetokounmpo — but it’s better to push him into those shots than giving up off-the-dribble 3s. 

Maccabi could switch here too, particularly if Nebo is guarding the screener and they’ve got Baldwin or Colson on Grant. All three of those guys are capable of switching up and down respectively. 

A mixed approach of switching and drop is likely what Maccabi will do against Nunn. Nebo will often be tasked with switching, depending on the team and personal foul situations, but Panathinaikos could counter this by using another screener such as Mitoglou. Expect Cohen to play drop in this situation, but if Nunn starts dominating in the midrange which he’s more than capable of, Maccabi will have to resort to alternative schemes. They could change their lineup, and go smaller by bringing James Webb III or Antonious Cleveland in the game. This would give them a lineup where they can switch across the board, but leave them vulnerable on the backboards. 

Maccabi could also blitz — it’s something they haven’t done a lot of this season — which would be an interesting tactic. It would chase the ball out of the hands of Nunn, Grant, and Sloukas — who we haven’t even gotten to yet — and make the likes of Lessort, Antetokounmpo, and Mitoglou short-roll decision-makers. Lessort has been better in this spot this season, but when he’s off the floor this is worth experimenting with. 

The spread pick-and-roll is Panathinaikos' go-to offense, but they had success with other schemes against Maccabi even in the losses. For starters, they need to attack switches early, especially in the low-post. Put Brown in pick-and-roll action, if he gets stuck on Mitoglou or Lessort get the ball inside to them. When Maccabi’s even smaller guards come in the game — John DiBartolomeo and Tamir Blatt — Panathinaikos should look to attack them the same way. Heck, if one of those guys is in the game and guarding Grant they should go straight to a post-up, that worked in Round 23.

For the Greens, they have struggled to contain Maccabi’s guards. It’s not your basic pick-and-roll, the Greens used some straightforward defense there with a drop against Baldwin and a mix of blitzing and hedging against Brown, but the fact that Maccabi likes to use a double-stagger screen for their ballhandlers which Panathinaikos simply could not figure out. Blatt and Brown were draining open pull-up threes, and Baldwin was getting easy midrange pull-ups. 

Expect Maccabi to use this action more in this series, and relentlessly if Panathinaikos doesn’t figure out how to guard it. The Greens could easily go to a switch-heavy scheme if they can’t figure this out, via a smaller lineup. Nunn, Sloukas, Grant, Grigonis, and Lessort would not be a surprising lineup to see with Ataman narrowing his rotation overall. Except for backup big Jasiel Rivero, Maccabi doesn’t have many skilled post players. If Lessort can hold his own on the perimeter, this might be the recipe for success for Ataman’s side. 

This series should be very close and could see rotations shorten very early on and both teams resort to smaller more versatile lineups that let them lean into their guard play, shooting, and overall firepower. With what feels like a dead-even matchup, we’ll give the edge to Panathinaikos' home court and pick them in five. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Winners and Losers: We’ve got Mike James Monaco returning to the Final Four with a Game 5 win

This will likely be another nail-biter of a series. Mike James is having the best season of his career and with it, managed to carry Monaco to the third seed. The supporting cast has not been great around him, primarily thanks to inconsistent shooting, but he can usually get enough support on a game-by-game basis to help his team get a win. 

Fenerbahce has great depth overall, but struggles in one particular area on the offensive end: off-the-dribble creation. This team has leaned on Nick Calathes and Marko Guduric to shoulder the load of managing their offense and it helped them finish sixth, but could be the death of them in the playoffs. They’ll need Scottie Wilbekin to continue to shoot the lights out, and Calathes to score just enough to keep defenses honest and keep the floor open for their shooters. 

The first challenge Fenerbahce has is figuring out how to slow down James. In their most recent meeting in Round 25 where they lost in Monaco, they mixed up their coverage with hedge and drop schemes. Drop is risky against James given his ability to score from … anywhere. But with Fenerbahce’s roster not having one big man who you would consider even a neutral defender pushing James into drop is probably the safest approach. 

Hedge and recover defense they can use when John Brown III is in the game and not being utilized as the screener. Brown’s inability to space the floor can allow whoever is guarding him to assume the role of helping on the roll man in the middle until Fenerbahce’s five can recover and leave the likes of Calathes, Wilbekin, or maybe even Yam Madar to guard James. Fenerbahce used this scheme in their last matchup with Monaco and it worked well, particularly in the first half. 

Now, Fenerbahce has struggled when conceding the short roll which is a risk they take if they go to hedge defense. If James can slip a quick pocket pass to Donatas Motiejunas or whoever his screener is, Fener has been weak in these four vs. three scenarios. The one benefit Fener has is that Monaco’s personnel isn’t exactly built to capitalize on these scenarios. For starters, their centers — especially after Motiejunas — are not good passers or decision-makers. Donta Hall and Mam Jaiteh are actually awful in this role. 

Monaco’s spacing leaves a lot to be desired as well. Brown cannot shoot, Alpha Diallo and Jaron Blossomgame are streaky at best, and Jordan Lloyd and Kemba Walker have been borderline non-existent. You can only play one of Matt Strazel and Elie Okobo with James or you give up too much size. While Fenerbahce is not the best against the short roll, they might want to see how Monaco handles it before writing it off completely. 

On offense, Fenerbahce will look to get their threes up. Jasikevicius’ club finished the season with the number one offense in EuroLeague and it was thanks to their great 3-point shooting. Wilbekin, Tyler Dorsey, Guduric, Tarik Biberovic, Nigel Hayes-Davis, and well pretty much their entire roster besides Calathes, Madar, and Jonathan Motley want to let it fly. Monaco’s defensive strategy in their last match-up is probably what we’ll see for most of this series. 

Monaco will dare Calathes to be a scorer and shooter. They will go under ball screens for him and play drop, they won’t bring gap help, and they’ll stay home on shooters. This approach is not foolproof. Calathes has had a decent season shooting the ball and has been more willing to attack the rim on drives. Jasikevicius could also have Calathes go into dribble handoff action when defenses sink deep on him. Calathes is a big guard and a great passer, he could be a real threat in handoffs with Wilbekin, Hayes-Davis, and others. Monaco will have to chase over the top on these and make sure they don’t give up easy drives to the rim. 

If Calathes is too much of a constraint on Fenerbahce’s offense, that’s where things get concerning. Their next option is Guduric. Guduric is an irrational confidence guy — he shoots when he should and shouldn’t, waves off anyone and everyone, and can score in bunches. But sometimes the shot isn’t going down, or he’s ignoring a mismatch or open teammate. Guduric can run an offense for short bursts because of his overall scoring prowess, but if he has to do it for any extended stretch the bad will outweigh the good — that’s almost a guarantee. 

If Calathes and Guduric have a good series and respond well to what Monaco concedes to them, they could pull this off without home court. But that doesn’t seem super likely, and Monaco’s adjustments seem much safer, at the end of the day, they’ve got a home-court advantage and the best player in the series. That’s why we’re going with Monaco in five. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Winners and Losers: Our one “upset” pick is Olympiacos over Barcelona in four

Barcelona and Olympiacos is the closest series in the standing, but Barcelona has some significant weaknesses that Olympiacos has exploited and could again be the one lower-seeded team that makes the EuroLeague Final Four. The main weakness Olympiacos can attack: is Barcelona’s interior defense. Whether it’s defending in the post, protecting the rim, or protecting the paint Barcelona is not good at any of it. Jan Vesely and Willy Hernangomez are not good on this end of the floor and when you’ve got center depth like Olympiacos does: Moustapha Fall, Nikola Milutinov, and Moses Wright you’ve got a recipe for disaster. 

Olympiacos’ offense needs to prioritize rim pressure above everything else. Whether that’s getting their centers the ball in the low-post or attacking off the dribble they need to assert control of that area and force Barcelona to channel all their defensive effort on protecting the paint. When they do that, the floor will open for their shooters and the likes of Alec Peters and Isaiah Canaan can get going. This will be a big series for Nigel Williams-Goss, Shaquille McKissic, Ignas Brazdeikis, and of course — Thomas Walkup. Williams-Goss, McKissic, and Brazdeikis should be Olympiacos' go-to guys to slash and attack the rim. Except for their starting lineup, you could make an argument that one of those guys should be on the floor at all times. 

Barcelona will look to concede perimeter creation to Walkup. The Greek-American point guard has been a common foil for Olympiacos offense in the post-season and this series shouldn’t be any different. Walkup is not a great shooter or scorer in the mid-range and does not like to shoot with any significant volume. Barcelona can hide Nico Laprovittola on him, or put one of their more skilled defenders — Tomas Satoransky, Nikola Kalinic, or Oscar Da Silva on him and give them freedom to help protect the paint and roam. Pair that with an intentional effort to force Olympiacos baseline and sideline instead of letting them slash into the paint and Barcelona could limit what the Greek side wants to do. 

On offense, Barcelona needs to attack Olympiacos switches. Head coach Georgios Bartzokas loves to have his team switch. He trusts all of his bigs to defend on the perimeter and every guard/wing from Canaan to Kostas Papanikolaou to hold their own in the post. Against Barcelona, this logic doesn’t necessarily apply. While Vesely and Hernangomez leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end, they are both skilled post-scorers who can exploit mismatches. 

When Olympiacos switches, Barcelona needs to get the ball down low quickly and force a second defender to come over and get their shooters open. This worked well for Roger Grimau’s team in their Round 20 matchup and it would behoove him to lean on it again. 

If Olympiacos is going to stick with their switching defense, they need to apply more ball pressure. Significantly more ball pressure. If you’re going to switch you need to deny passing lanes especially as it pertains to areas with mismatches. If the ball gets there easily it negates the benefit of switching and makes it a negative. Force Barcelona to make some extra passes, buy some time, run the shot clock down, and maybe even be able to switch a better defender down low before Barcelona can get the ball there. 

Barcelona has not had a defense you can trust against the big teams all season due to their lack of an imposing interior presence. It’s a major flaw, one that Olympiacos has the personnel to exploit and overcome the lack of home-court advantage. We are picking them in four, but would not be surprised if Barcelona wins this series. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Line of the Week

Markus Howard keeps the good times rolling with 28 points on 8-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. 

EuroLeague Week 26 Clip of the Week

Iffe Lundberg has ice in his veins, a dog in his gut, etc.