Falcons' biggest concern and biggest advantage for 2024 backed up by analytics expert

What to do about the Atlanta Falcons? This is a team that has not qualified for the NFL playoffs since 2017. They have never had a home playoff game in their state-of-the-art stadium. Yet, this is a team the NFL world seems to be buzzing about. While appearing on The Blogging Dirty Podcast with me last week, I asked FTN's Chief Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz about how the numbers impact Atlanta.

One of my first big questions what about the additions of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons to the defense. Schatz's team had Atlanta ranked dead last in their projections prior to these additions. They improved the Falcons several positions into the low 20s. While Schatz was bullish on the two defensive additions, he remained skeptical about Kirk Cousins' ability to bounce back from his injury.

Schatz said in his simulation for the FTN Football Almanac that Cousins did not grade out favorably.

"In the simulation I did for our new book, FTN Football Almanac 2024, in that simulation, the Falcons averaged only 7.6 wins and won the division 15 percent of the time. So I'm still lower on the Falcons than conventional wisdom, in part because I am skeptical about what Kirk Cousins can do coming off an Achilles injury, so we only have them with an average offensive projection."

Even though I was expecting that he would bring up DVOA again, this was all about another key stat.

"The first thing I'll say is it's very interesting. We have a separate projection for the quarterback that goes into our team projection. And you would think the projection for the quarterback would be based on DVOA, which is a rate stat, how efficient was a player."

With ample sample size, DYAR does not say that players coming back from injuries usually flourish.

"But it's actually based on DYAR, which is our total stat. Guys who have had injuries, even if they played well when they're healthy, don't tend to be as good the next year at quarterback than guys who played the whole year at that same efficiency. So I think that that's what's showing us why we should be a little skeptical.

The good news is that if Cousins is just average, then that would still be a big boost for the offense.

"...And for the Falcons, if Cousins is average, that is also an improvement on the quarterback play they had last year, but not as much of an improvement as it would be with the Jets."

Here is my entire interview with the creator of DVOA, on behalf of FTN and the FTN Football Almanac.

And as for what Schatz really thinks is in Atlanta's favor, take a look at their incredibly soft schedule.

Analytics out on Kirk Cousins, but in on Atlanta Falcons' easy schedule

Without much effort, Schatz was emphatic about how incredibly easy Atlanta's schedule is this year.

"It's the easiest projected schedule in the league by our numbers, yeah."

I asked him if playing the harder games early would make a big difference, but he said they did not.

"I don't think it matters whether you play the easy games early or you play the easy games late. Either way, you're playing the easy games. And the AFC West, we do not think the Chargers are going to be as good as conventional wisdom thinks they're going to be this year. And nobody thinks the Raiders or Broncos are going to be any good, so we're in total agreement with the world on that."

The key takeaway is outside of the Kansas City Chiefs, Schatz is down on the rest of the AFC West.

"And that's all in the second half, right? That's all in the second half of the schedule, for those three teams for the Falcons. The thing about the schedule is that the schedule is almost as easy for the Panthers and the Saints. The Buccaneers is a little harder because they were in first place last year."

The soft schedules for all four teams in the NFC South suggest maybe two teams make the playoffs?

"But that's why, I said this last year and I was wrong, but I'm gonna say it again, it would not be a shock if to see two teams from this division make it to the playoffs because of the schedule, not because the teams are that good themselves. But because the schedule is so easy for the Saints and the Falcons. And it's easy for the Buccaneers too, just not as easy."

Overall, I just have a feeling that better coaching, better quarterback play and better defensive players should help the Falcons do a decent job of navigating the easiest schedule in the league. Of course, this has been a sit-down franchise for the better part of my life. You have to go out and win those incredibly easy games on your schedule. Nothing has ever been easy being a Falcons fan...

Ultimately, I appreciated the time I had to speak with Schatz last week. What I found most intriguing is he and his team are able to remove biases from all statistical simulations to give us the data we crave. There may be things in favor of the Falcons that aren't for other teams and vice versa. Cousins must play well, but the Falcons must also handle their business when it comes to the super easy schedule.

The best part about covering sports for a living is that we have no idea how the games will shake out.

Aaron Schatz spoke to FanSided on behalf of FTN to promote the FTN Football Almanac for 2025.