Grading wild Bears trade scenario to ditch Justin Fields

The Chicago Bears are out of the postseason mix at 6-9. It has been a difficult third NFL campaign for Justin Fields. Chicago is expected to have two top-10 picks in 2024, potentially including No. 1 overall by way of the Carolina Panthers trade for Bryce Young last spring. That sets the stage for a potentially foundational roster shift in the offseason.

It hasn't been all bad for Fields, who is prone to oscillating violently between prodigious and ineffective. He will mix absolute duds (99 passing yards in 41-10 loss to Chiefs on Sept. 24) with star-making performances (back-to-back four TD games on Oct. 1 and Oct. 5). The Bears have won two of their last three games, tackling the stretch run with a fair amount of positive momentum after a busy trade deadline that yielded defensive standout Montez Sweat.

There's a chance Chicago keeps Fields and looks to other positions on draft night. Maybe the Bears trade out of No. 1 again. Maybe Chicago selects Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. to complement Fields, whose singular athleticism provides him with a longer leash than your average first-round QB gamble. Or, maybe the Bears reinforce the O-line again. Options exist beyond a QB change.

That said, the Bears would be hard-pressed to stair down the barrel at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the No. 1 slot and say, "no thanks." As promising as Fields can look, his inconsistency as a passer and propensity for sacks are genuine red flags. There is a more than small chance Chicago would swiftly regret keeping Fields over the draft's top arms.

Assuming the Bears don't want Fields to duke it out with Caleb Williams in training camp (a fun concept), a trade is borderline inevitable. If Chicago opts to go that route, a recent proposal from Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports might do the trick.

Essentially, the Bears receive consecutive third-round picks from the Las Vegas Raiders. The 2025 third-round pick becomes a second-round pick if Fields plays 75 percent of the Raiders' snaps in 2024. A fair, healthy and production-contingent offer at first blush.

Of course, it's a huge swing for both sides. Let's get to grading.

NFL trade grades: Hypothetical Bears-Raiders trade for Justin Fields

The Bears would presumably add Caleb Williams or Drake Maye to the mix here, which is important context. This is not Chicago offloading Justin Fields without a backup plan. It's Chicago meaningfully upgrading the QB spot (at least long term) while cashing out on their innately talented but woefully inconsistent 24-year-old.

The Bears probably won't do much better than this with Fields' current track record. There are teams around the league primed to invest in Fields' upside, but Chicago fans are impatient. It's time for the Bears to win games and compete. A rookie QB appears counterintuitive to that goal on the surface, but Williams especially is considered one of the best QB prospects in recent memory. The Bears shouldn't expect another C.J. Stroud-level rookie breakout, but Chicago could receive an immediate boost if Williams lives up to his dual-threat reputation.

Notably, Williams is similar to Fields on the surface. Both have the ability to extend plays and break games open with their legs. That could aid Williams' integration into the offense, as Chicago is already built to accommodate Williams' unique play style.

There's a chance Fields becomes the one who got away... he's a genuine talent and he deserves patience from the right team. His hometown Falcons look awfully needy right about now. But, if Chicago can land Williams or another top QB on draft night, it's only logical to dump Fields.

Bears trade grade: A-

The Raiders, meanwhile, invest in Fields as the future with Aidan O'Connell pegged as the long-term QB2. O'Connell is 4-4 in eight starts as a rookie, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,675 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions in nine total appearances. The arm talent is real, and there have been some standout moments. He tossed four touchdowns in Las Vegas' monster 63-21 win over the Chargers a couple of weeks ago.

That said, O'Connell was the Raiders' fourth-round pick in 2023 — hardly enough to cement his future as Vegas' full-time QB after a handful of uneven performances. Fields and O'Connell both struggle with turnovers, but Fields' open-field athleticism is a legitimate stressor for defenses. The former's arm talent has come into question, especially during his Chicago lowlights, but a tier-one athlete who can improvise like Fields will always carry more upside.

The Raiders are done with Jimmy Garoppolo and O'Connell hasn't earned the unequivocal stamp of approval. That makes this a fair trade, at least at first glance. If Fields is healthy and productive enough to start 75 percent of his snaps, losing a 2025 second-round pick won't hurt so much. We have seen flashes from the Raiders' offense since Josh McDaniels' departure. We know that Davante Adams is ready for a real QB to run the show.

Las Vegas could aggressively seek a QB on draft night. In fact, if the Bears trade out of the No. 1 spot, the Raiders are a sensible partner. But, in lieu of such a trade, Fields could be the next best thing for Las Vegas.

Raiders trade grade: B