Hero World Challenge picks 2023: Best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

The 2023 Hero World Challenge has arrived as the PGA Tour's Fall Swing has concluded and we are onto a fun stretch at the end of the season. But perhaps no tournament will be more fun than this one at Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas as Tiger Woods makes his return for the first time since The Masters.

As this event will also be Will Zalatoris' return, it's going to be an exciting event, even with only 20 players in the limited field. But one piece of advice when making your bets and wagers this week before we get into our PGA Tour expert picks for the week: Avoid Tiger and Willy Z. With this much rust in a field that is small but loaded, the outcomes where those bets cash are wildly limited.

However, that might offer at least a little bit of value for us to find at the Hero World Challenge. So as we limp into the end of 2023 with a still stellar PGA Tour best bets record (still up over 20 units!), let's try and cash this week with our Hero World Challenge picks and best bets for the week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will update periodically. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Hiatus Since): 53-159-2, +20.896 units (5-53 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -4.6 units at Bermuda)

Hero World Challenge expert picks: Winner, Top 5 predictions

Top 5 pick for Hero World Challenge: Justin Thomas (+210)

No one who has remotely kept up with golf over the past year is unaware of Justin Thomas' struggles. He finished outside of the Top 70 and missed the FedEx Cup Playoffs by a hair. But we've seen some better golf of late as well from the 2022 PGA Championship winner. Most recently, he finished T5 at the Fortinet Championship.

More importantly, though, he's been great at the Hero World Challenge. He's finished T5 or outright fifth in each of his last three trips here. As long as he can keep the driver at least from being a problem -- which is why his odds are +210 for a Top 5, Thomas should be able to contend in this event, so I love the heavy plus money for only a Top 5 when he's proven capable of that in this tournament several times.

Winner pick for Hero World Challenge (0.5 units): Cameron Young (+1800)

In all honesty, I think Viktor Hovland or Scottie Scheffler probably win this event. But those odds are so short that I wanted to find a pseudo-dark horse a bit further down the odds board. And that's where Cameron Young just jumps off of the page.

Young's ability with the driver makes him extremely dangerous at this place where he can bomb it, but also do so accurately. While his approach numbers have him losing strokes over the last 20 rounds, his putter has been solid over that same span. Moreover, he finished in third at the Hero last year. I like for him to show up at a place that suits him and at least be in the mix to win, which we'll take +1800 odds on in a 20-person field.

Hero World Challenge picks: PGA Tour expert picks, more best bets

Viktor Hovland to finish Top 5, Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa to finish Top 10 Parlay (+171)

With a 20-player field, you have to get creative. But I love this little parlay. Hovland has the best tee-to-green numbers on the planet over the last 20 rounds, which we saw at the end of the 2022-23 season and even in the Ryder Cup. As the back-to-back winner, we take him as a Top 5 to begin this little parlay.

As for the other two, Scheffler has been back-to-back runner-up in Albany and his ball striking remains top-notch. I love for him to keep that up easily to finish in the top-half of the field. That leaves us with Homa. While his driver can be a tad inaccurate at times, his numbers across the board have been stellar over the last 20 rounds, gaining in all four major categories. Combine his affinity for playing well in Tiger-hosted events, and a Top 10 seems relatively safe.

Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas Triple Chance to win (+135, DraftKings)

Alright, this is how we continue trying to wisely load up the card with shares of Hovland and Scheffler with a sprinkle of JT in there. On DraftKings, they have the triple chance to win at plus odds, which is where we're going. Thomas is the wild card in this group but Hovland and Scheffler are clearly the best players with the best recent track records coming into this event. So getting plus money for either to win and we cash, we're going to take that to the bank this week at the Hero.

Tony Finau over Rickie Fowler Tournament Matchup (-105)

One of the only ways your driver can get you in trouble at this tournament is if you find the waste areas. That's where any trepidation for Thomas as a Top 5 comes from. But it's also why I'm fading Rickie Fowler a bit for this tournament too. Fowler's driver has been quite erratic over the last 20 rounds with just over 55% for driving accuracy. With his approach and putting also dipping from where they were, it's not been good.

So we're taking Tony Finau, who has also been a bit off with the driver, but less so than Fowler, while being a better approach player over that same span. The margins are likely going to be thin, but I'm taking the bit of value on Finau with two players who have been performing comparably coming into this tournament.