How is the WNBA Draft order decided?

Teams are still jockeying for playoff seeds at the top of the WNBA standings but the teams at the bottom are in a race of their own. Like the NBA, the WNBA uses a lottery system to determine the draft order for teams at the bottom of the standings but there are some wrinkles that make it unique.

How is the WNBA Draft order decided?

Eight teams make the WNBA Playoffs and the other four teams are entered into a lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. While the NBA uses regular season record to determine the lottery odds, the WNBA uses the combined record for the past two seasons among the teams who miss the playoffs — presumably to reduce the incentives for tanking in a single season.

The team that misses the playoffs and has the worst regular season record over the previous two years has a 44.2 percent chance of getting the first pick. The next worst two-year record has a 27.6 percent chance at the No. 1 pick. The remaining teams have a 17.8 and 10.4 percent chance, respectively.

Once the No. 1 pick has been determined, the lottery continues with that team removed and the remaining odds intact to determine the No. 2 pick, and so forth. After the lottery, regular-season record just from the most recent season is used to determine the order of the remaining eight picks in the first round.

Dates for the 2025 WNBA Draft and 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery haven't been set yet but here's how the odds would work out if the season ended today.

Current 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery odds

If the WNBA season ended today, the LA Sparks would end up with the No. 1 pick and a chance to add another rising star to their two first-round picks from last season — Rickea Jackson and Cameron Brink, who missed most of this season with a torn ACL. The Sparks at the top of the odds seems all but locked in but things get quite a bit messy after that.

The Atlanta Dream and and Chicago Sky are locked in a battle for the No. 8 seed and a chance at the playoffs, with the Sky holding a half-game lead in the standings. However, the Dream, Sky and Dallas Wings (who have already been eliminated from the playoffs) all have identical two-year records of 31-44. The Washington Mystics still have an outside chance of making the playoffs but they're also a half-game ahead of the Dream, Sky and Wings with a 30-45 two-year record. That means the final week of the regular season will determine not just who makes the playoffs but how the lottery odds shake out for the three teams who don't.

Making things even more complicated, the Mystics hold the rights to the Dream's first round pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, which they acquired from the Wings in a 2023 draft-night trade. That means there's a chance the Mystics end up with the No. 2 and No. 3 odds slots which, combined, would give them a greater chance at the No. 1 pick than the Sparks.

Who are the top prospects in the 2025 WNBA Draft?

The 2025 WNBA Draft isn't until April, after the conclusion of the women's college basketball season so there is a lot of time for big boards to chance and top prospects to emerge. Suffice it to say there almost certainly won't be a once-in-a-generation prospect like Caitlin Clark available but there could be plenty of future stars up for grabs.

Paige Bueckers: The No. 1 player in her class coming out of high school, has been disrupted by injury. She missed all of her junior season and a good portion of her sophomore season but helped lead UConn to the Final Four last year in her triumphant return. She averaged 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game last year on a 63.2 true shooting percentage. A dynamic offensive creator and smooth shooter, she has the size and skill to lead a WNBA offense. Bueckers opted to return to school to play out her fourth year of eligibility and if she puts up numbers like those while staying healthy she'll have a strong case for the No. 1 pick.

Kiki Iriafen: After growing by leaps and bounds over her three seasons at Stanford, Iriafen transferred to USC for her final year of eligibility. There is a lot to like about her size, athleticism and productivity — 19.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game last season. But she's not a defensive anchor in the frontcourt and hasn't been a 3-point shooter to date which could make her a more challenging rotation fit at the next level. But she'll be playing next to star backcourt scorer JuJu Watkins at USC and similar production while stretching her range and doing more on defense could put her in the running with Bueckers for the No. 1 pick.

Anneesah Morrow: While Morrow presents similar questions as Iriafen — an interior scorer who doesn't really shoot the 3 she's a lot more disruptive on the defensive end and her productivity is impossible to ignore. She finished fouth in the nation in scoring and first in rebounds as a sophomore at Depaul before transferring to LSU where she averaged 16.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.1 blocks per game on a loaded roster. There will be more opportunities for her to feature this season with Angel Reese already in the WNBA and she has a chance to establish herself as the best two-way player in the country.