Why can’t (W)Indiana make the College Football Playoff?

As the Big Ten begins its first year with a newly expanded conference that includes teams a quartet of former Pac-12 programs, one unexpected program in the conference is overperforming projections with their play so far in the 2024 season.

While Curt Cignetti is only in his first year as head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers, the former JMU head coach has led the program to a 5-0 start, its best in nearly 60 years with people in Bloomington even possibly thinking about a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Cignetti recruited Kurtis Rourke as a transfer from Ohio, and the veteran signal-caller has thrown for 1,372 yards and 11 touchdowns so far this season. Overall, the offense has looked fantastic, scoring fewer than 42 points just once through five games. However, the Hoosiers have yet to play an above-average opponent this season with the school still having that fate until they face off against Nebraska on Oct. 19.

Is Indiana a true dark horse for the College Football Playoff?

While Dylan Raiola's Cornhuskers squad will likely be a tough challenge for the Hoosiers, the program may be able to avoid playing a playoff contender until November as they face off against Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks, the latter in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Although it's unclear if Indiana can keep up their offensive magic as they enter the actual bulk of conference play, it's possible they could make the CFP even if they lose to the Wolverines or Buckeyes later on in the season.

Indiana likely won't be able to get into the College Football Playoff at 10-2, especially with only two likely other contenders on their schedule. However, with a win over either Michigan or Ohio State and finishing at 11-1, perhaps they could. Even then, given that they are merely 23rd in the AP Top 25 after a 5-0 start, they might need some help on top of that, specifically from SEC contenders.

Still, it's fair to say that all of this talk is a bit premature as they still have to prove themselves against the middle-tier of the Big Ten, much less the Top 10. Even if the Playoff isn't a realistic measure for Indiana, though, the Cignetti tenure is off to a resoundingly successful start.